ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

Nice strong band has popped up in the last hour from SE LA through to the far W.Panhandle.

AL coast should get some good rains in the next hour or so, the start of a very wet weekend.

[SouthFloridawx]

It's very broad and very weak with multiple centers.

[Dave]

[CaneCurious]

This kinda reminds me of Tropical Storm Edouard in 2002. BUT I hope its not like Cindy in 2005 where we were all thinking that it was a moderate tropical storm and ramped up into a Cat 1 right before landfall. I went to sleep to a local met saying that we would be fine and then to my husband waking me up after midnight to all hell breaking loose outside. So no one is out of the woods until this thing is inland and dissipated.

[HenkL]

Weak center around 27.5N 91.0W.
Plane descended now to around 250m height.

[lostsole]

Nice strong band has popped up in the last hour from SE LA through to the far W.Panhandle.

AL coast should get some good rains in the next hour or so, the start of a very wet weekend.

I'm sitting on the coastaltborder of alabama and florida and getting rained on pretty good.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk

[KWT]

Good broad agreement between the global model but still a little uncertainty with just howe fast it comes inland.

[PTrackerLA]

Did the BAMMs not initialize in the new position? They look a good bit to the NE of where the last position started.

[HeeBGBz]

We have had some heavy rain this morning in Biloxi. I went out to secure some things and got soaked. It's only just starting I dread the drive to and from work the next 3 days. I work right on the beach so I have a great view of what's coming in from the gulf.

[Dave]

612
URNT15 KNHC 021354
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 15 20110902
134500 2748N 09105W 9770 00242 0041 +250 +212 115022 023 026 001 00
134530 2750N 09105W 9768 00243 0042 +247 +211 110021 022 026 002 00
134600 2752N 09105W 9770 00242 0042 +247 +206 110023 023 025 001 00
134630 2753N 09104W 9774 00239 0043 +247 +208 110023 024 025 001 00
134700 2755N 09104W 9769 00244 0044 +249 +203 111022 022 027 000 00
134730 2756N 09104W 9751 00260 0045 +245 +207 115021 021 026 001 03
134800 2758N 09105W 9760 00254 0046 +247 +207 113020 021 /// /// 03
134830 2758N 09107W 9761 00252 0045 +245 +215 103017 018 /// /// 03
134900 2756N 09107W 9764 00249 0043 +251 +204 098018 019 026 001 00
134930 2755N 09107W 9757 00254 0043 +252 +200 100020 021 026 001 00
135000 2753N 09108W 9764 00248 0042 +248 +206 098019 021 024 002 00
135030 2752N 09108W 9772 00239 0042 +251 +201 099016 017 025 001 00
135100 2750N 09108W 9763 00247 0041 +256 +207 101018 020 024 002 00
135130 2750N 09108W 9763 00247 0040 +252 +215 114019 019 026 001 00
135200 2747N 09109W 9767 00241 0038 +261 +208 120016 018 024 000 00
135230 2746N 09109W 9768 00240 0037 +261 +207 132012 013 021 003 00
135300 2744N 09109W 9769 00240 0038 +259 +210 127009 011 020 002 03
135330 2743N 09110W 9765 00244 0040 +257 +205 092010 012 019 000 00
135400 2741N 09111W 9768 00244 0042 +250 +212 078013 013 020 002 03
135430 2740N 09112W 9768 00242 0041 +252 +206 083012 013 020 000 00
$$
;

[Clint_TX]

Reminds me of Frances 1998

[CaneCurious]

This sure looks like a strengthening tropical system to my novice eyes.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/ ... e_anim.gif

[Nederlander]

I hope I'm not seeing what I think I'm seeing but is the ULL that was shearing starting to weakin?

Sorry, can you explain what that means?

A ULL is an upper level low and the ULL to the NW of our system has been preventing it from organizing any better. With the shear forecast to weaken, we can expect strengthening over the next couple of days unless a lot of dry air from Texas gets entrained in the system. Should be a strong TS or minimal hurricane when it finally lifts out.

Disclaimer: This is NOT an official forecast. Please refer to the NHC for official forecasts.

Edit: you can see the ULL pretty well on water vapor imagery. I'm on my phone so I can't post a link but maybe someone else will..

[southerngale]

Reminds me of Frances 1998

Yeah, except it rained in Texas during Frances and apparently, it's never going to rain in Texas again.

[Dave]

[Javlin]

This sure looks like a strengthening tropical system to my novice eyes.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/ ... e_anim.gif

I was noticing the same thing myself.It appears that the cloud cover has expanded 2' or 120miles to the west in the last seven hours notice here...... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Dave]

776
URNT15 KNHC 021404
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 16 20110902
135500 2738N 09112W 9766 00244 0041 +249 +212 083010 011 019 001 00
135530 2737N 09112W 9768 00243 0041 +245 +216 077009 009 015 002 00
135600 2735N 09111W 9768 00242 0039 +250 +212 068008 008 019 000 00
135630 2734N 09111W 9768 00240 0038 +255 +208 064007 007 021 000 03
135700 2732N 09111W 9770 00237 0037 +249 +211 072007 008 018 002 00
135730 2731N 09111W 9768 00239 0036 +250 +206 069006 006 017 002 00
135800 2729N 09110W 9768 00239 0036 +251 +209 081007 008 019 001 00
135830 2727N 09110W 9769 00237 0035 +250 +212 083008 009 020 001 00
135900 2726N 09110W 9769 00237 0036 +250 +216 076008 008 020 000 00
135930 2724N 09109W 9767 00239 0036 +249 +219 074009 010 019 001 00
140000 2723N 09109W 9767 00239 0036 +249 +219 079008 008 020 001 00
140030 2721N 09109W 9768 00239 0037 +250 +217 081007 008 020 001 00
140100 2720N 09108W 9766 00240 0037 +250 +216 084006 007 020 001 00
140130 2718N 09108W 9769 00238 0037 +250 +216 075005 006 022 000 00
140200 2717N 09108W 9764 00242 0036 +254 +214 036003 004 019 001 00
140230 2715N 09107W 9772 00235 0036 +256 +212 066004 005 018 001 00
140300 2714N 09107W 9770 00237 0036 +251 +217 079007 008 017 002 00
140330 2712N 09106W 9768 00238 0034 +255 +219 078008 009 019 000 00
140400 2711N 09106W 9768 00237 0034 +255 +218 059005 007 018 000 00
140430 2709N 09106W 9772 00235 0035 +255 +216 097005 006 019 000 00
$$
;

[Portastorm]

Reminds me of Frances 1998

Yeah, except it rained in Texas during Frances and apparently, it's never going to rain in Texas again.

I was hoping to wake up this morning and read that something changed with the weather pattern and this system was going to end up in Texas. Not a chance.

Meanwhile, TD #13 is looking more and more on satellite like that monsoonal low we talked about a few days ago.

[mattpetre]

In looking at all of the steering current 5 day movies I just don't see how this doesn't make it to at least the TX/LA border.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm2/wg8dlm2java.html

[Dave]