ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Gatorcane in terms of a cold winter in SFL it looks unlikely with la nina developing which leads to a warm mild winter most of the time.

Back to Maria.

[Gustywind]

Maria getting fatter and fatter. Looks like very wet weather conditions in tape.. .

[SFLcane]

Aric, did the 12z NAM finish farther S and W?

Just the NAM.. You can see the escape route to the north.

[cycloneye]

Maria getting fatter and fatter. Looks like very wet weather conditions in tape.. .
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/5060/tagant.jpg

Gusty, I uploaded the image at imageshack.us as the image will change and will not be fat as it will be out of the image. With it uploaded,the image stays there and not change.

[Gustywind]

Maria getting fatter and fatter. Looks like very wet weather conditions in tape.. .
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/5060/tagant.jpg

Gusty, I uploaded the image at imageshack.us as the image will change and will not be fat as it will be out of the image. With it uploaded,the image stays there and not change.

Ok thanks , i forget it excuse me

[wxman57]

Maria is looking a bit more circular now. I think it may actually be developing an LLC maybe a bit east of the NHC position. I think it's well on its way to being a "true" TS soon, with respect to having a better-defined LLC.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091529
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 38 20110909
151900 1537N 05651W 8429 01577 0112 +162 +114 103032 033 044 010 00
151930 1537N 05650W 8423 01585 0112 +164 +114 103031 031 043 010 00
152000 1538N 05648W 8424 01582 0111 +166 +114 104029 030 042 011 00
152030 1538N 05648W 8424 01582 0111 +165 +114 107028 029 043 010 00
152100 1538N 05646W 8423 01584 0109 +168 +113 111028 029 041 009 00
152130 1539N 05644W 8424 01584 0108 +170 +112 112027 028 041 008 00
152200 1539N 05643W 8426 01580 0110 +169 +111 114028 028 040 008 00
152230 1539N 05641W 8424 01585 0107 +173 +110 114026 026 040 008 00
152300 1540N 05640W 8425 01584 0107 +174 +110 118026 027 039 007 00
152330 1540N 05638W 8424 01584 0110 +171 +111 127027 028 038 008 00
152400 1540N 05637W 8425 01582 0107 +173 +110 133026 027 037 006 00
152430 1541N 05635W 8425 01584 0106 +177 +109 139025 026 036 004 00
152500 1541N 05634W 8424 01586 0106 +177 +109 138026 026 036 003 00
152530 1541N 05632W 8430 01578 0110 +170 +111 127028 029 036 003 00
152600 1541N 05631W 8425 01583 0110 +171 +111 130026 027 036 004 00
152630 1542N 05629W 8426 01581 0112 +167 +118 131028 029 037 005 00
152700 1542N 05627W 8436 01574 0112 +167 +118 136025 027 037 003 00
152730 1542N 05626W 8425 01585 0112 +169 +115 139027 030 036 004 00
152800 1543N 05624W 8422 01586 0113 +168 +113 139028 030 038 004 00
152830 1543N 05623W 8423 01588 0117 +165 +117 137029 032 039 005 00

[Adoquín]

She is feeding on water at 85 to 86 degrees now, up from 84 yesterday. She will get fatter as she continues to slow down. Center, center, where sre you hiding?

[artist]

obs 38

[gatorcane]

Yeah I agree its organizing, should only mean a turn to the NW as it feels the weakness near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

When I look at the SAT images, I see clouds streaming from SW to NE across Florida and Western Atlantic. What a large weakness that has been sitting there.

In fact its been since July since we have seen a good "East" wind pattern here.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091538
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 39 20110909
152900 1543N 05621W 8427 01586 0120 +161 +116 135032 032 041 005 00
152930 1544N 05620W 8423 01592 0121 +161 +117 134031 032 042 007 00
153000 1544N 05618W 8426 01589 0122 +161 +115 135030 030 043 007 00
153030 1544N 05617W 8424 01590 0121 +165 +116 138029 031 043 004 00
153100 1545N 05615W 8424 01590 0122 +160 +121 139027 029 043 008 00
153130 1545N 05614W 8422 01590 0126 +153 +122 133017 022 046 019 00
153200 1545N 05612W 8423 01592 0137 +137 +124 104020 024 050 022 00
153230 1546N 05611W 8433 01581 0135 +135 +123 102026 030 059 028 00
153300 1546N 05609W 8417 01596 0142 +126 +119 123032 034 052 025 00
153330 1546N 05608W 8425 01587 0142 +125 +117 138037 040 047 020 00
153400 1546N 05606W 8430 01581 0141 +127 +117 131041 043 047 018 00
153430 1547N 05605W 8422 01592 0134 +140 +114 128043 045 039 011 00
153500 1547N 05603W 8427 01585 0129 +148 +113 127042 043 039 011 00
153530 1547N 05602W 8429 01586 0124 +158 +108 130046 047 033 006 00
153600 1548N 05601W 8422 01590 0130 +149 +109 136045 047 033 010 00
153630 1548N 05559W 8424 01590 0135 +141 +113 137043 044 039 010 00
153700 1548N 05558W 8427 01587 0133 +146 +113 137040 041 037 010 00
153730 1549N 05556W 8422 01593 0135 +142 +114 139040 041 035 010 00
153800 1549N 05555W 8423 01592 0132 +146 +114 140040 041 036 008 00
153830 1549N 05553W 8424 01594 0129 +152 +116 135037 038 034 007 00

[cycloneye]

Plane found 59kts at SMFR and 47kts at flight level,and are good readings.

[Adoquín]

and btw those reps represent a positive anomaly in water temps in that region from the Windwards to PR of around 1.5 degrees, if not higher in isolated spots so you have to be even more watchful this season, of which a lot of time remains.

[SFLcane]

12z models...Sharp recurve there may even miss PR.

[Adoquín]

Plane found 59kts at SMFR and 47kts at flight level,and are good readings.

I cannot write it but hear me say the F word three times, Luis.

[CourierPR]

Aric, are you sold on a turn near Puerto Rico/Hispaniola? I'm wondering if it might come closer to Cuba.

[artist]

obs 39

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, did the 12z NAM finish farther S and W?

Just the NAM.. You can see the escape route to the north.

[img]http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110909/12/nam_wnatl_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif[/mg]

NAM very similar to the 00z EURO and the nogaps.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, are you sold on a turn near Puerto Rico/Hispaniola? I'm wondering if it might come closer to Cuba.

Dont think it will make it to CUBA but a track close or over DR is quite possible., the EURO and NAM and Nogaps are very near DR.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z models...Sharp recurve there may even miss PR.
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... _early.png

Those are all assuming an immedate WNW motion, which might not be the case. Steering indicates westward movement for the time being. Also, if the current center is indeed at 13.5N/58W, we can throw these out. Cant totally rely on models right now.