ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jinftl]

They are flying recon in the system right now so all of the mysteries of how strong it is...and if it has a closed circulation....will soon be solved.

Not knocking the NHC, but I would be interested to know what doubts they still have as to it being a cyclone already. Normally I agree with their conservative, wait-and-see approach, but given the level of organization and the immediate threat to land I never imagined they would wait all the way until recon to classify it.

[beoumont]

The western area should fade away as the the low near 14N 52W continues to organize and deepen. That is where Recon. will be investigating and likely to find our TC!

Another double-yolk elongated disturbance to deal with. Hopefully the yoke is not on us.

[Aric Dunn]

notice all the wind obs from recon... all out of the east ... which where its at should be N

[YB2010]

This so far has been a fascinating invest to follow, given it's size, duel lows and now appearances of becoming 2 separate entities. Understanding the stronger will eventually eat the weaker, but still the seeming of another completely different invest forming. It's like some ancient dance, a ballet if you will, of nature's temperament and complexity in the seas, the uncertainty. I can see why it has found it's way into people's psyches, trying to figure it out with such differing view points awaiting confirmation of substantial facts. Fun stuff. I love hurricane season.

Back to lurking goes I.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL goes way north...

That is a big change Adrian.

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFDL goes way north...

yes it did.. lol

initialized it on the east area... just going to take all the models with a grain of salt till this thing organizes..

[KWT]

notice all the wind obs from recon... all out of the east ... which where its at should be N

Its a really wierd set-up thats for sure!

Winds obs suggest there is at a decent circulation on the western system, art the moment no real hints of a closed low on the easdtern side but then again that may well come as recon gets further east.

I think actually this won't get upgraded...its just got too much interaction between the two vort areas and neither IMO are well defined at the moment.

[chrisjslucia]

The western area should fade away as the the low near 14N 52W continues to organize and deepen. That is where Recon. will be investigating and likely to find our TC!

Another double-yolk elongated disturbance to deal with. Hopefully the yoke is not on us.

Actually the yolk is on us in the Northern Windwards...strong rains, modest winds right now from the Western area!

[Aric Dunn]

I actually see some SE winds on the last obs.... lol

[caneseddy]

So now the GFDL is doing a GFS and curving out to the east while the GFS is shifting west...this is why I love the tropics and why nothing is set in stone yet

[CourierPR]

Bastardi tweets that normal GFS errors need to be looked at (shifting energy east) and that a recurve before reaching the U.S. is not a done deal. Food for thought for those open-minded folk in the recurve camp.

[cheezyWXguy]

Im sorry but there is no way this thing will get as strong in the near term as the GFDL or even the HWRF are suggesting. The gfdl has this thing hitting the northern islands as a major hurricane and likely believes this is already a tropical cyclone. I hate to say it but at least in the near term, I think the nogaps may be right.

[KWT]

NHC need to detour recon into the western system, thats where any LLC is...

[RL3AO]

notice all the wind obs from recon... all out of the east ... which where its at should be N

Of course the obs stopped for the hour they we're flying through that part.

[vbhoutex]

I thought I was sure what was going on earlier, but now ?????????????? This year has been a year of weather strangeness and it continues!! It will be quite interesting to see what HH find!!

[KWT]

GFDL is well east because its much stronger MUCH faster, its got a hurricane by 48hrs...

Simply put its probably overagressive this run with regardfs to its development.

IF the GFDL is right, recurve would be a dead cert...

[Dean4Storms]

Didn't the GFDL have Don headed for TX/LA border just a couple days out?

[Aric Dunn]

yeah they are way too strong initially

['CaneFreak]

Agreed...I don't think I have ever seen a mid-level PV anomaly break off and form two separate systems before...this is very interesting to say the least!!

I thought I was sure what was going on earlier, but now ?????????????? This year has been a year of weather strangeness and it continues!! It will be quite interesting to see what HH find!!