ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

I think it is safe to say that we are seeing a totally different scenario so far with Katia than what we saw with Irene. There is definitely no run to run consistency in the models right now. I still think they are having trouble dealing with the evolving situation in the GOM and any interaction that future Lee may have with troughs and ridges. I think we have some interesting days ahead.

SFT

actually most of the problem is what is occurring with the low of NC. the models that turn westward kick that out in about 36 to 48 hours ( which its slowly on the move already) the rest keep it there way way to long and thus leave a weakness there till the trough comes to pick it up. future lee has little to do with it right now.

Thanks for the clarification Aric. Your opinion is always valued.

OT - BTW...1000th POST!!!

SFT

[Gustywind]

01/1745 UTC 15.8N 48.5W T3.5/4.0 KATIA --

[Countrygirl911]

ok is there any chance that this could take a track similular to Andrew because it sure looks like it is taking that bend to the west close to where andrew did

[SouthFLTropics]

ok is there any chance that this could take a track similular to Andrew because it sure looks like it is taking that bend to the west close to where andrew did

Ahhhh...BLASPHEMY!!! Don't say the "A" word!!! It's not allowed or your home will be visited by former NHC director Dr. Bob Sheets!!!

[Blown Away]

Saved Image.

Getting interesting.

[AHS2011]

This ought to be a record-pacing season so far. If invest 93 and 94 form today and or tonight, then we will have Lee and Maria, which I think is the M name. Correct me if I'm wrong. And also, does anyone think that Irene could have been just a "warm-up" storm for Katia in the Northeast?

[gatorcane]

GFS is being very stubborn. ECMWF is at least showing a west bend every other run now... I would think the GFS will coming up in one of these runs.

Problem with the GFS is it bombs out this system and it is so strong it just keeps looking for a weakness north of the islands and as soon as it finds any hint, it heads north.

Judging by the ULL to the NW of the system and increasing shear, GFS may back off some on intensity....and it may also shift west. We shall see.

[Aric Dunn]

I also just realized.. the next forecast point its supposed to pass ( which its south of and passing right now) is at 00z.. so its south of and 3 hours faster than the 11am forecast right now.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is being very stubborn. ECMWF is at least showing a west bend every other run now... I would think the GFS will coming up in one of these runs.

Problem with the GFS is it bombs out this system and it is so strong it just keeps looking for a weakness north of the islands and as soon as it finds any hint, it heads north.

Judging by the ULL to the NW of the system and increasing shear, GFS may back off some on intensity....and it may also shift west. We shall see.

I mentioned it before when the GFS was running that its biggest problem is it cant figure what to do with that low off of NC... it keeps it there for 5 days almost till on the last run merges with it ( really ) but that low keep the weakness open so no ridge can build in behind it like the other models are doing ... so it drifts nw till the trough comes. until the GFS can resolve that issue its going to keep doing that.

[fci]

But the blanket statements look rather foolish now, don't they? As it is,
the EURO is suggesting this storm is play. And by they way, screaming
fish fish fish, is hardly a prediction. Just my thought.

Last comment so as not to stray from Katia; and in my humble, somewhat biased opinion:
- No statement is foolish when made 10 days or more out
- "Fish, fish, fish" is indeed a prediction of future route
- Comments made that far out are "sport" and "fun" and not to be taken seriously. Really, at that point, what is there REALLY to talk about???

Back to Katia and the mysteries of whether she will be a fish, threaten the CONUS or maybe be blown apart by King TUTT and Screaming Shear...........................

[Aric Dunn]

18z Nam is running.. the 12z hinted at ridging building behind the low off NC

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ouragans]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 SEP 2011 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 15:46:46 N Lon : 48:26:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 996.1mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -63.8C Cloud Region Temp : -62.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 93km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.6 degrees

This position matches nearly the Best Track: 15.8N 48.5W. In other words, from last position, this is clearly WNW 22kts

[fci]

I think it is safe to say that we are seeing a totally different scenario so far with Katia than what we saw with Irene. There is definitely no run to run consistency in the models right now. I still think they are having trouble dealing with the evolving situation in the GOM and any interaction that future Lee may have with troughs and ridges. I think we have some interesting days ahead.

SFT

actually most of the problem is what is occurring with the low of NC. the models that turn westward kick that out in about 36 to 48 hours ( which its slowly on the move already) the rest keep it there way way to long and thus leave a weakness there till the trough comes to pick it up. future lee has little to do with it right now.

But doesn't the future Lee (or Maria if they decide to name 94L for its very short life); have a big say in where Katia "might" go.
If Lee is in the GOM, then how could Katia take a west route towards the GOM?
It would seem to take that possibility off the board (selfish Florida resident's question)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2011

KATIA HAS TAKEN THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION.
THE CURVED BAND THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER HAS
DISSIPATED...AND CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CI AND T NUMBERS
FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

UW-CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KATIA. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY SOURCE OF THIS SHEAR. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH THIS LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH...RESULTING IN A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT
TERM...HOWEVER IT STILL BRINGS KATIA TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW
DAYS.

KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 16 KT. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN AND BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HFIP
CONSENSUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS. AFTER
THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH OF KATIA...WHILE OTHERS
SUGGEST THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL PERSIST...BRINGING THE CYCLONE
FARTHER NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE HFIP CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 16.1N 49.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.8N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.7N 52.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 18.7N 54.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 56.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 21.6N 59.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 23.5N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 25.5N 65.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/CANGIALOSI

[fci]

I think it is safe to say that we are seeing a totally different scenario so far with Katia than what we saw with Irene. There is definitely no run to run consistency in the models right now. I still think they are having trouble dealing with the evolving situation in the GOM and any interaction that future Lee may have with troughs and ridges. I think we have some interesting days ahead.

SFT

actually most of the problem is what is occurring with the low of NC. the models that turn westward kick that out in about 36 to 48 hours ( which its slowly on the move already) the rest keep it there way way to long and thus leave a weakness there till the trough comes to pick it up. future lee has little to do with it right now.

Thanks for the clarification Aric. Your opinion is always valued.

OT - BTW...1000th POST!!!

SFT

Congrats on hitting 1000!!!!!
Bad news is that it doesn't make you any smarter.
Look at the number of posts I have made and I am still rather clueless.

[Aric Dunn]

yep they are going to have to downgrade....

center is around 15.6 to 15.8 N

[cycloneye]

Downgraded

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2011

...KATIA WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 49.2W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

[Gustywind]

Katia loop

[Aric Dunn]

I think it is safe to say that we are seeing a totally different scenario so far with Katia than what we saw with Irene. There is definitely no run to run consistency in the models right now. I still think they are having trouble dealing with the evolving situation in the GOM and any interaction that future Lee may have with troughs and ridges. I think we have some interesting days ahead.

SFT

actually most of the problem is what is occurring with the low of NC. the models that turn westward kick that out in about 36 to 48 hours ( which its slowly on the move already) the rest keep it there way way to long and thus leave a weakness there till the trough comes to pick it up. future lee has little to do with it right now.

But doesn't the future Lee (or Maria if they decide to name 94L for its very short life); have a big say in where Katia "might" go.
If Lee is in the GOM, then how could Katia take a west route towards the GOM?
It would seem to take that possibility off the board (selfish Florida resident's question)

well most of the models that take a west turn either drop future lee/nate or whatever either SW or stall over land when katia is north of Hispaniola thats 5 days or more out. both which would be a weak system and would have little influence.

[Aric Dunn]

Still heading west.. according to advisory. and they finally mentioned the west shift in the models.. surprised they did not shift the cone at all.. guess they are waiting for more model runs.. also they used a lot words like " supposed to " and "expected to" "Should" dont think they are sure about the turn nw either..