ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SuperLikeNintendo]

Building strength = Much higher chance of a sharp recurve away from FL?

What are we (as in those who are smarter than I) thinking now?

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091548
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 40 20110909
153900 1550N 05552W 8423 01594 0126 +157 +116 132036 037 034 003 00
153930 1550N 05550W 8425 01591 0135 +145 +118 134035 036 036 011 00
154000 1550N 05549W 8426 01592 0127 +158 +117 134038 039 039 006 00
154030 1551N 05547W 8424 01593 0128 +156 +115 135040 040 040 003 00
154100 1551N 05546W 8424 01595 0131 +156 +115 135041 042 038 002 00
154130 1551N 05544W 8424 01596 0133 +155 +114 133043 044 039 001 00
154200 1551N 05543W 8422 01598 0131 +156 +111 131042 042 038 002 00
154230 1552N 05542W 8425 01597 0131 +157 +111 132041 042 034 001 00
154300 1552N 05540W 8424 01597 0132 +155 +114 128040 041 035 001 00
154330 1552N 05539W 8422 01598 0133 +155 +113 128040 040 034 000 00
154400 1552N 05537W 8426 01595 0133 +155 +114 129039 039 035 000 00
154430 1553N 05536W 8424 01597 0133 +155 +115 130038 039 034 000 00
154500 1553N 05534W 8425 01598 0133 +155 +115 132039 039 031 000 00
154530 1553N 05533W 8436 01586 0133 +157 +118 135040 041 031 002 00
154600 1554N 05532W 8421 01601 0134 +155 +117 134039 040 033 000 00
154630 1554N 05530W 8425 01596 0132 +155 +116 134039 039 031 000 00
154700 1554N 05529W 8425 01597 0132 +155 +116 135038 038 031 000 00
154730 1554N 05527W 8425 01597 0132 +155 +116 136038 039 031 000 00
154800 1555N 05526W 8422 01600 0132 +155 +115 134036 038 033 001 00
154830 1555N 05524W 8426 01596 0133 +156 +116 135034 035 033 000 00
$$

[Jimsot]

She is feeding on water at 85 to 86 degrees now, up from 84 yesterday. She will get fatter as she continues to slow down. Center, center, where sre you hiding?

[Aric Dunn]

barbados now reporting a east wind.. and the low level CU clouds south of BArbados are showing a westerly wind..

[calmbeforestorm1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

I think I see a strong turning at 57.0 north of 15.0

[wxman57]

Building strength = Much higher chance of a sharp recurve away from FL?

What are we (as in those who are smarter than I) thinking now?

Yes, stronger = earlier turn. Models indicate a trof digging south into Florida by Monday. That means westerly winds aloft across the state, preventing Nate from tracking in that direction.

[artist]

obs 40

[robbielyn]

deleted. wrong thread sorry.

[Aric Dunn]

Turn on the wind option and look at the low level CU clouds..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091558
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 41 20110909
154900 1555N 05523W 8424 01599 0135 +155 +116 138035 037 035 001 00
154930 1556N 05521W 8425 01595 0137 +152 +119 135036 036 037 002 00
155000 1556N 05520W 8436 01588 0138 +150 +120 137036 036 034 001 00
155030 1556N 05518W 8412 01612 0137 +152 +119 135035 036 033 000 00
155100 1557N 05517W 8421 01603 0139 +151 +114 140038 039 033 000 00
155130 1557N 05515W 8428 01597 0140 +148 +117 140036 038 032 002 00
155200 1557N 05514W 8426 01599 0149 +134 +120 142033 035 038 008 00
155230 1558N 05512W 8423 01600 0152 +127 +119 141033 034 038 009 00
155300 1558N 05511W 8422 01599 0152 +127 +115 144034 035 036 010 03
155330 1558N 05509W 8422 01601 0148 +135 +116 137034 036 033 008 00
155400 1559N 05508W 8425 01597 0140 +148 +109 135034 036 033 001 00
155430 1559N 05506W 8429 01597 0139 +152 +108 139032 033 /// /// 03
155500 1558N 05505W 8425 01602 0143 +147 +112 137031 031 /// /// 03
155530 1556N 05505W 8413 01607 0141 +147 +112 128029 029 028 001 03
155600 1555N 05507W 8425 01596 0140 +149 +112 128030 031 030 001 03
155630 1554N 05508W 8422 01600 0136 +151 +108 132035 036 030 001 00
155700 1553N 05510W 8425 01598 0135 +155 +107 132038 038 028 000 00
155730 1552N 05511W 8428 01595 0132 +158 +106 132037 038 028 000 00
155800 1551N 05512W 8425 01595 0132 +158 +106 133036 037 028 001 00
155830 1550N 05514W 8424 01596 0131 +159 +106 132035 035 031 000 03

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 091558
97779 15574 60159 55208 15300 13038 16118 /2522
41430
RMK AF306 0214A MARIA OB 10
SWS = 28 KTS
;

[artist]

obs 41

[alch97]

So I guess we could say with confidence that SFL is out of the Maria sweepstakes?

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091609
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 42 20110909
155900 1549N 05515W 8425 01593 0129 +160 +105 129034 034 030 000 00
155930 1548N 05516W 8426 01592 0126 +162 +105 126034 034 031 000 00
160000 1547N 05518W 8424 01594 0125 +161 +106 127034 035 030 000 00
160030 1546N 05519W 8426 01591 0127 +158 +106 130036 036 032 000 00
160100 1545N 05520W 8426 01589 0126 +159 +106 132036 037 031 001 00
160130 1544N 05522W 8429 01588 0125 +160 +106 131034 035 032 000 03
160200 1543N 05523W 8422 01595 0124 +160 +108 132034 034 030 000 03
160230 1542N 05525W 8424 01589 0120 +164 +110 130033 034 032 000 00
160300 1541N 05526W 8424 01591 0121 +161 +110 129031 031 031 000 00
160330 1540N 05527W 8424 01592 0120 +164 +106 128031 032 028 000 03
160400 1539N 05529W 8428 01587 0122 +160 +106 131032 033 028 000 00
160430 1538N 05530W 8424 01587 0122 +160 +106 132033 033 029 000 03
160500 1537N 05531W 8429 01583 0120 +163 +106 130032 033 030 000 00
160530 1536N 05533W 8424 01591 0117 +165 +106 127032 033 031 000 00
160600 1535N 05534W 8424 01589 0116 +167 +108 130033 033 034 000 00
160630 1533N 05536W 8426 01582 0120 +160 +108 135032 033 033 000 00
160700 1532N 05537W 8422 01587 0116 +164 +107 135032 033 032 000 00
160730 1531N 05538W 8425 01586 0115 +167 +107 133031 032 031 002 00
160800 1530N 05540W 8428 01583 0115 +165 +107 134029 030 032 000 00
160830 1529N 05541W 8422 01588 0114 +165 +106 135028 029 032 000 03
$$

[chaser1]

Turn on the wind option and look at the low level CU clouds..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

Aric, I'm sitting here in the "westward" camp for the moment. Given whereever surface obs might now indicate a LLC exists, certainly would seem in contradiction with the NHC forecast path, and I would assume an adjustment indicating a path south of Puerto Rico might soon be required. However , looking at the overall organization of Maria on satellite, I can't help but wonder if a more established mid level center exists farther east and north of where some of us are looking. If the case, might not the mid level vortex work its way down to the surface and potentially have a strong storm/borderline hurricane again, under a newly reformed center to the "northeast" of the present one? If so, then not only might we have continuity with NHC's forecast path, but moreso I would think this "better vertically stacked" system would then certainly tend to feel the influence of the mid level steering and actually begin to trek more on a 285-290 coarse direction. Your thoughts??

[jhpigott]

12z GFS running?

[Aric Dunn]

Turn on the wind option and look at the low level CU clouds..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

Aric, I'm sitting here in the "westward" camp for the moment. Given whereever surface obs might now indicate a LLC exists, certainly would seem in contradiction with the NHC forecast path, and I would assume an adjustment indicating a path south of Puerto Rico might soon be required. However , looking at the overall organization of Maria on satellite, I can't help but wonder if a more established mid level center exists farther east and north of where some of us are looking. If the case, might not the mid level vortex work its way down to the surface and potentially have a strong storm/borderline hurricane again, under a newly reformed center to the "northeast" of the present one? If so, then not only might we have continuity with NHC's forecast path, but moreso I would think this "better vertically stacked" system would then certainly tend to feel the influence of the mid level steering and actually begin to trek more on a 285-290 coarse direction. Your thoughts??

thats right. Recon can verify that the area to the NE is nothing but in the mid levels with only NE wind blowing all the way through the NHC 11am position.. nothing at the surface there.. right now its farther south and West... could reform up that way if convection persists for a while. but already seems to be waning.


correction... east and SE winds

[artist]

obs 42

[xironman]

Yea and it pulls it hard to the north. Not sure I am buying it.

[SFLcane]

Looks perfectly normal to me. Big trof drops down and scoops maria up.