ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Blown Away]

No surprise, all the deep convection over the Yucatan Channel. IMO they will continue adjusting that estimated low more towards the NE Yucatan tip. Could get interesting, the low was expected to go more inland earlier.

[wzrgirl1]

Yeah I guess most folks don't pay much attention this time of the year because the weather starts to change and they don't think of tropical systems when it's cool out but we in south florida know better that this is the time of the year we should be paying the most attention to because these storms can come out of nowhere at times. Stay tuned....if nothing else will be a nice rain maker.

[Rainband]

No surprise, all the deep convection over the Yucatan Channel. IMO they will continue adjusting that estimated low more towards the NE Yucatan tip. Could get interesting, the low was expected to go more inland earlier.

I agree. Can't wait till the cooler weather after this

[TBCaneFreak]

Those NE Yucatan tip locations are bulls eye for SFL, if 95L consolidates over the tip it may develop into a decent TS/Hurricane! IMO

We know...EVERY THING hits "SFL"...
Of course if you look at the analog storms from this location that formed..1 hit SFL, 1 missed to the east of Florida, 1 hit Sarasota, one hit Appalacicola, 1 to Texas, 3 to differing parts of Mexico...That BULLSEYE is pretty darn big ...Living in Tampa Bay, what exactly is SFL....is it Miami area, or anywhere from I-4 south...It seems as if Miami area residents use SFL as a personal geological identifier for an extreamly small portion of the state right awound Miami, while geographicaly, SFL should be the southern half of the state from Tampa south

[jinftl]

New model runs...00UTC 17 Oct....

New model runs for track:



New model runs for intensity:

[Rainband]

north some. I expected that. Thanks

[Rainband]

Those NE Yucatan tip locations are bulls eye for SFL, if 95L consolidates over the tip it may develop into a decent TS/Hurricane! IMO

We know...EVERY THING hits "SFL"...
Of course if you look at the analog storms from this location that formed..1 hit SFL, 1 missed to the east of Florida, 1 hit Sarasota, one hit Appalacicola, 1 to Texas, 3 to differing parts of Mexico...That BULLSEYE is pretty darn big ...Living in Tampa Bay, what exactly is SFL....is it Miami area, or anywhere from I-4 south...It seems as if Miami area residents use SFL as a personal geological identifier for an extreamly small portion of the state right awound Miami, while geographicaly, SFL should be the southern half of the state from Tampa south

You said a mouthful.

[TBCaneFreak]

Yea!!! I actually live horth of Tampa called Trinity. We generally get 5-8 degrees coldder than the actuall Airport Temp, so were expecting Upper 40's for lows 2 weeks end...there goes the pool temp
Kevin
CentFla <~~~haha

[wzrgirl1]

Residents on the east coast of florida should heed warning too. I remember with Wilma the back side of the storm got us pretty good and just because the storm is forecast to come ashore on the west coast does not mean that only the west coast will feel the effects. Even though this most likely won't be a wind event, one should still pay close attention imo.

[TBCaneFreak]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My Thoughts are....
A breif oppotuniy to strengthen to a TS 45-60kts, hen a sheared mess accellerating to the NE giving most of te FL Penninsula a drownding...maybe a wind gust to TS force or slightly higher where and to the south of the center crossing the state..my guess Cedar Key area to Venice for center crossing...very little weather north of center...just breezy cooler weather (ala Wilma Like)...

[Dave]

Will do my best to be here Cyclone eye, may get here in middle of mission, not sure yet. Have a couple things to do but will be on asap.

[Blown Away]

Those NE Yucatan tip locations are bulls eye for SFL, if 95L consolidates over the tip it may develop into a decent TS/Hurricane! IMO

We know...EVERY THING hits "SFL"...
Of course if you look at the analog storms from this location that formed..1 hit SFL, 1 missed to the east of Florida, 1 hit Sarasota, one hit Appalacicola, 1 to Texas, 3 to differing parts of Mexico...That BULLSEYE is pretty darn big ...Living in Tampa Bay, what exactly is SFL....is it Miami area, or anywhere from I-4 south...It seems as if Miami area residents use SFL as a personal geological identifier for an extreamly small portion of the state right awound Miami, while geographicaly, SFL should be the southern half of the state from Tampa south

This is what I consider SFL, but officially I believe it's Jupiter south through the Keys or Palm Beach, Broward, Dade, and Monroe Counties. My point of reference for SFL was the NE Yucatan tip, not the current location, very likely late October track for systems near NE Yucatan tip is SFL.

[OuterBanker]

Hmmm, fairly well clustered cost hugger. Could morph into a rather nasty NorEaster if it combines with the mid week cold front. Something worth watching.

btw, I do feel the storm last week in Fla was warm core and should have been named. It did weaken after landfall which is an indication of warm core.

[TBCaneFreak]

Awesome Reply...Given that map , I would consider this a Central and SFL event possibility, because of the trof and timing...I would say merely a rain event with some swaying trees will just about do it though...Most of you to Tampa Bay's east and south need no rain, so hopefully a quick exit stage right will occur

[jinftl]

Current radar doesn't look good for the rain letting up in extreme south florida...heavy rain continues to move north from the Keys into Miami-Dade county and into Broward. This 'event' is already taking place down here.




Rainfall totals today over half a foot in parts of the Keys and up to 4" in parts of Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood area and west Homestead. We will be adding to that tonight.



Tornado Warning just issued for Lower Keys:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
958 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 958 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO OVER HAWK
CHANNEL...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
CUDJOE BAY...UPPER SUGARLOAF KEY.

Awesome Reply...Given that map , I would consider this a Central and SFL event possibility, because of the trof and timing...I would say merely a rain event with some swaying trees will just about do it though...Most of you to Tampa Bay's east and south need no rain, so hopefully a quick exit stage right will occur

[Blown Away]

00z models showing little land interaction with the Yucatan, so 95L will at least be over water longer and maybe this will improve the development chances?? TVCN is almost exactly the Wilma track minus the Cat 5 hurricane status!

[Blown Away]

Low relocated back over water, was inland before. Convection is building.

[SFLcane]

00z real models..

[jinftl]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1013 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI...AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES

* AT 1010 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR IN MIAMI INDICATED
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING FROM MIAMI BEACH TO DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. RADAR WAS ESTIMATING ONE TO TWO INCHES DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
UNTIL IT BEGINS TO TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT.

[WeatherOrKnot]

Not a drop of rain yet here in my part of Palm Beach County! Will this be like the last "rain event" for South Florida where Broward and south and Vero and north got a ton of rain and we got squat here in PBC?!


ETA- Well we just had a decent downpour. Didn't last long. So we'll see.