ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Rainband]

I wonder what our friend Joe Bastardi will say now? Don't get me wrong, I like the guy - but will he do a 180 like some of the models? We all had some pretty bold ideas about the potential of 96L. The models led us in that direction. Models have had trouble handling systems this year. They are just tools. Watch them do another 180 this evening Strange year

I agree the models have struggled a lot this year. I think part of the reason why so many forecasts busted was because they relied too much on models. Hopefully in the years to come we have a better understanding of why the models couldn't accurately predict what was going on in the basin this year.

[Rainband]

IMO,after the GFS failing at 12z to develop it,NHC will drop some more the % at 2 PM TWO.

I agree with that. I think 97L as it moves into the central Caribbean may be an area of interest in the days ahead though.....

[Rainband]

12Z GFS has no development. Wow, this is incredible. It really is. I do not recall seeing anything like this in some time. What the heck? I guess it could still happen but with the major globals jumping off, what are the odds? Probably low. I guess that it all comes down to "why change now?" In other words, why would the Caribbean suddenly come to life now when it has had zero all season due to lack of instability and other issues? Simply amazing turn of events in just the last 24 hours.

well as stated by others. We rely too much on the models and that in part is why sooo many forecasts busted this year. It would be funny if not ironic if this did go on and develop after losing model support.....

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z GFS has no development. Wow, this is incredible. It really is. I do not recall seeing anything like this in some time. What the heck? I guess it could still happen but with the major globals jumping off, what are the odds? Probably low. I guess that it all comes down to "why change now?" In other words, why would the Caribbean suddenly come to life now when it has had zero all season due to lack of instability and other issues? Simply amazing turn of events in just the last 24 hours.

I could not agree more. This is very surprising to say the least. At this time yesterday the models were all on board with development and all systems were go for a tropical cyclone to form. Today, it is looking like nothing will come out of this. This is really a stunning turn of events. This just goes to show that we have soooooo much more to learn about weather forecasting.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass made at 10:42 AM EDT shows a pretty good circulation.

[psyclone]

IMO,after the GFS failing at 12z to develop it,NHC will drop some more the % at 2 PM TWO.

i agree. they tend to change deveopment chances slowly even when current obs could justify a more significant alteration. they really don't like to lurch around from one outlook to the next which i guess makes sense since it's a 48 hour forecast. if they just drop it 10% per outlook then 0 will still come around pretty fast should a really bearish development scenario unfold.

[NDG]

ASCAT pass made at 10:42 AM EDT shows a pretty good circulation.

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/1926/wmbds20.png

I agree with the image, very close to my suspected area, San Andres continues to report a west wind, visible satellite also shows a little tighter circulation than many inititially thought.

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS has no development. Wow, this is incredible. It really is. I do not recall seeing anything like this in some time. What the heck? I guess it could still happen but with the major globals jumping off, what are the odds? Probably low. I guess that it all comes down to "why change now?" In other words, why would the Caribbean suddenly come to life now when it has had zero all season due to lack of instability and other issues? Simply amazing turn of events in just the last 24 hours.

Very little chance in my opinion it gets picked up by the strong frontal boundary next week. Likely bury itself into CA as the 12z models seem to be indicating.

[brunota2003]

Recon for today was canceled just 3 hours and 25 minutes before wheels up. That has got to be frustrating for sure, with as many missions have been canceled at the last second this season. I know I'd be chomping at the bit.

[cycloneye]

Down to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW
LOCATED A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...BUT STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHOULD FORCE THE LOW TO MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL
AMERICA ON SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IS DIMINISHING...THIS SYSTEM
COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

[SFLcane]

Game over... Hopefully for the rest of this annoying season.

[blp]

This season has been a big lesson that until you have an established LLC that the models can latch onto it is difficult to trust any of them entirely. I think the vertical instability issue was a big one this year. What I can't understand is why with such a strong MJO pulse in our region can the vertical instability be so poor. Someone needs to study this season to find out what caused this to happen.

[floridasun78]

it look like their low north of panama

[SouthDadeFish]

I wouldn't give up on development. The circulation does look like it is becoming better defined. It just needs convection to build over it, as it currently exposed on the eastern side of any convection.

[psyclone]

the trend of 10% reductions in development probabilities is on. as is the case with so many things in life, it's not so much where you are as where you're headed. we're headed down on this one in all likelihood due to proximity to land. it's been a good year for our resident bear dwsqos. he suggested yesterday this might happen and i think wxman57 did as well. it looks like they both may score. again.

[NDG]

San Andres:

Conditions at: SKSP (SAN ANDRES ISLAN, CO) observed 1800 UTC 22 October 2011
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 79%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.75 inches Hg (1007.5 mb)
Winds: from the WNW (300 degrees) at 26 MPH (23 knots; 12.0 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: 9000 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1800 feet AGL
broken clouds at 9000 feet AGL
Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/index.php

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Moving slowly northward.

AL, 96, 2011102218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 814W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[psyclone]

WOW that is a very busy west northwest wind on san andres in that observation posted by NDG

[Vortex]

Almost that time to say see ya next summer...

[cycloneye]

This season has been a big lesson that until you have an established LLC that the models can latch onto it is difficult to trust any of them entirely. I think the vertical instability issue was a big one this year. What I can't understand is why with such a strong MJO pulse in our region can the vertical instability be so poor. Someone needs to study this season to find out what caused this to happen.

Agree 100%.Many studies have to be made to find out what occured in the 2011 North Atlantic season.