ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

Wow, 7 hours of sleep and I see these models you guys put out. Looks (in the spaghetti models) that the majority is now favoring it to be more south and west and less of a harsh turn. No one should downplay this storm at all.


The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bexar]

oh man

all this shear and dry air has been quite a pest in this season

[Bruiser]

SFT[/quote]

actually most of the problem is what is occurring with the low of NC. the models that turn westward kick that out in about 36 to 48 hours ( which its slowly on the move already) the rest keep it there way way to long and thus leave a weakness there till the trough comes to pick it up. future lee has little to do with it right now.[/quote]

But doesn't the future Lee (or Maria if they decide to name 94L for its very short life); have a big say in where Katia "might" go.
If Lee is in the GOM, then how could Katia take a west route towards the GOM?
It would seem to take that possibility off the board (selfish Florida resident's question)[/quote]

well most of the models that take a west turn either drop future lee/nate or whatever either SW or stall over land when katia is north of Hispaniola thats 5 days or more out. both which would be a weak system and would have little influence.[/quote]


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
Euro +192 shows a FL sandwhich? or am I gonna get Noob slapped?

[meriland23]

Looks like she is a TS again at 70 mph (990mb), still heading west at 18. (nhc 5pm update)

[Aric Dunn]

actually most of the problem is what is occurring with the low of NC. the models that turn westward kick that out in about 36 to 48 hours ( which its slowly on the move already) the rest keep it there way way to long and thus leave a weakness there till the trough comes to pick it up. future lee has little to do with it right now.

But doesn't the future Lee (or Maria if they decide to name 94L for its very short life); have a big say in where Katia "might" go.
If Lee is in the GOM, then how could Katia take a west route towards the GOM?
It would seem to take that possibility off the board (selfish Florida resident's question)

well most of the models that take a west turn either drop future lee/nate or whatever either SW or stall over land when katia is north of Hispaniola thats 5 days or more out. both which would be a weak system and would have little influence.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
Euro +192 shows a FL sandwhich? or am I gonna get Noob slapped?

if you look at it closely the Euro move LEE/nate inland weakens it then drops it s again as the ridging build in strong. that weak system is not going to have any real affect on a large hurricane like that.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Thats an awfully insane turn the Euro makes

But what can we expect from something that had Irene leveling houston for a week

[caneseddy]

Thats an awfully insane turn the Euro makes

But what can we expect from something that had Irene leveling houston for a week

Actually, the Euro never showed Irene getting into the Gulf. As for Houston, it was the GFS on one run that had Irene obliterating Houston

[alienstorm]

Now that Katia is a TS (but expected to reintentsify) it may move more west and result in a recurve around 75 - 80 instead of 65-70.

[Aric Dunn]

18z NAm clearly showing that low weakening and lifting out and ridging building with a westerly turn ..

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[meriland23]

Now that Katia is a TS (but expected to reintentsify) it may move more west and result in a recurve around 75 - 80 instead of 65-70.

You are right, I heard way early on on the 30th that the more she holds off strengthening, the further west she heads before curving. I don't doubt the curve at all, but it is when that matters. Small differences make big changes. Curving at 70w could bring her up to the flemish cap or nova, 75w could ride her up the east coast. Chances she does not set sights on a part of the us are diminishing (in my perspective) and it seems that way according to latest spaghetti runs. We are still way early here, I don't even think she had nudged a buoy yet.


The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[craptacular]

They put the center at 16.1 N. Agree?

[Aric Dunn]

They put the center at 16.1 N. Agree?

no I do not.. microwave that just came out has it 15.8 or so

[meriland23]

latest spaghetti run

[Aric Dunn]

They put the center at 16.1 N. Agree?

no I do not.. microwave that just came out has it 15.8 or so

pretty clear it cant be above 16N

[BigA]

Forecasts for storms weakening due to shear often seem too cautious (not predicting as much weakening as actually occurs). I would not be surprised if this gets severely disrupted during the next day. I don't think the shear will kill it, but storm after storm has shown that neither the global models nor the HWRF or GFDL have good skill at predicting shear's effect on tropical cyclones.

[meriland23]

She is boot-scoot- and boogying it west man, look at how far she has gone in only 3 or so days.

[Evil Jeremy]

Long ways to go on determining Katia's final destination, but looking at the models, if the East Coast ridge can merge with the Bermuda High as is being hinted in some runs, game over for a recurve out to sea. Just like others, Irene caused my faith in long term model runs to be disrupted, but the trend is still west overall within 5 days.

Anyways, we now have the cone where Katia has to start moving WNW now to make the next point. Lets see how long she continues west.

[fci]

Forecasts for storms weakening due to shear often seem too cautious (not predicting as much weakening as actually occurs). I would not be surprised if this gets severely disrupted during the next day. I don't think the shear will kill it, but storm after storm has shown that neither the global models nor the HWRF or GFDL have good skill at predicting shear's effect on tropical cyclones.

Could shear and ULL's kill this thing?

[CrazyC83]

Lower latitude puts her farther from the ULL though?

[cycloneye]

Wow, Katia was expected to get plenty of ACE numbers,but now it looks like it will not get over the 20 units that Irene got and be the #1,unless conditions later on turn very favorable and it can reach major cane status.