ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091618
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 43 20110909
160900 1528N 05542W 8429 01580 0114 +165 +108 135029 030 031 000 00
160930 1527N 05544W 8423 01585 0114 +165 +105 137030 031 032 000 00
161000 1526N 05545W 8425 01584 0112 +168 +104 137031 031 032 000 00
161030 1525N 05546W 8426 01581 0110 +170 +103 135030 030 032 000 00
161100 1524N 05548W 8421 01588 0111 +170 +103 133030 030 032 000 00
161130 1523N 05549W 8425 01584 0109 +170 +103 133031 031 031 000 00
161200 1522N 05550W 8428 01581 0110 +170 +103 133031 031 032 000 00
161230 1521N 05552W 8428 01579 0110 +168 +104 133031 031 032 000 03
161300 1520N 05553W 8422 01584 0112 +165 +106 130029 030 031 002 00
161330 1519N 05555W 8424 01583 0111 +165 +106 130028 029 032 001 00
161400 1518N 05556W 8425 01581 0109 +165 +107 131027 028 031 001 00
161430 1517N 05557W 8422 01583 0110 +165 +107 127026 027 032 001 00
161500 1516N 05559W 8426 01577 0112 +163 +108 125026 026 032 001 00
161530 1515N 05600W 8424 01581 0113 +160 +111 122024 025 031 000 03
161600 1514N 05601W 8425 01580 0113 +160 +113 119023 023 032 000 00
161630 1513N 05603W 8425 01579 0113 +160 +113 117024 025 031 000 00
161700 1512N 05604W 8425 01578 0111 +160 +112 113025 026 031 000 00
161730 1511N 05606W 8425 01580 0111 +160 +111 112027 027 031 000 00
161800 1510N 05607W 8425 01577 0111 +160 +111 111027 027 031 001 00
161830 1508N 05609W 8423 01579 0108 +162 +110 109023 024 032 003 00
$$

[xironman]

Crazy differences in ridging between the NAM and GFS @66hrs. Note I am only looking at the ridge, not the track.

GFS


NAM

[artist]

obs 43

[xironman]

Looks perfectly normal to me. Big trof drops down and scoops maria up.

Well there is a definite suggestion of a the ridge extending west @24 yet Maria goes straight up into it. I included the 84 because that is when the trough comes through and kicks it OTS.

[SFLcane]

So I guess we could say with confidence that SFL is out of the Maria sweepstakes?

Not yet but it appears very unlikely maria comes close. Our real threats should come from the carib in a few weeks.

[calmbeforestorm1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

Given that there really is no definitive LLC right now looking at the visable it seem obvious that whatever does form will form at least above 14.0 and more like above 15.0 as the strong turning there albeit at the mid-levels is by far the area of strongest vorticity of any kind in the system.

[SFLcane]

Looks perfectly normal to me. Big trof drops down and scoops maria up.

Well there is a definite suggestion of a the ridge extending west @24 yet Maria goes straight up into it. I included the 84 because that is when the trough comes through and kicks it OTS.

NAM=garbage model in terms of tropics. my opinion

[KWT]

It does look a little better, quite a few of the models strengthen Maria as it clears the islands and given the fact that shear does seem to have eased off a little seems like a reasonable forecast. NHC is still quite keen to make this a hurricane in the future.

[chaser1]

[quote="Aric Dunn Recon can verify that the area to the NE is nothing but in the mid levels with only NE wind blowing all the way through the NHC 11am position.. nothing at the surface there.. right now its farther south and West... could reform up that way if convection persists for a while. but already seems to be waning.[/quote]

Funny, right after you mentioned how that area at about 15N & 56.5W was waning, I took another look at the visable sat. and though "waning??? ", but then checked out the BD curve and JSL loops and realized....there goes any near term center reformation! In actuality, the only presently remaining "cold cloud" tops are back around 55W between 13-14N. Heck, that convection depicts a net motion somwhere between West and "south of west". On a different note, do you sense that Maria is starting to slow down a tad ( can't tell and I think my eyes are going satellite loopy ).

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks perfectly normal to me. Big trof drops down and scoops maria up.

Well there is a definite suggestion of a the ridge extending west @24 yet Maria goes straight up into it. I included the 84 because that is when the trough comes through and kicks it OTS.

NAM=garbage model in terms of tropics. my opinion

But good for synoptics. Don't look at the storm. Look at the ridge.

[Aric Dunn]

[quote="Aric Dunn Recon can verify that the area to the NE is nothing but in the mid levels with only NE wind blowing all the way through the NHC 11am position.. nothing at the surface there.. right now its farther south and West... could reform up that way if convection persists for a while. but already seems to be waning.

Funny, right after you mentioned how that area at about 15N & 56.5W was waning, I took another look at the visable sat. and though "waning??? ", but then checked out the BD curve and JSL loops and realized....there goes any near term center reformation! In actuality, the only presently remaining "cold cloud" tops are back around 55W between 13-14N. Heck, that convection depicts a net motion somwhere between West and "south of west". On a different note, do you sense that Maria is starting to slow down a tad ( can't tell and I think my eyes are going satellite loopy ).[/quote]


yeah it appears to have slowed a little.. but still around 15 to 18 mph.

[chrisjslucia]

As of 12.25 pm:

Tropical Storm MARIA Update Statement

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning UPDATE

000
WTNT64 KNHC 091625
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1225 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

AT 1215 PM AST...1615 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[BigA]

12Z GFS clobbers Newfoundland six or seven days from now. Something to keep in the back of our mind.

[xironman]

Looks perfectly normal to me. Big trof drops down and scoops maria up.

Well there is a definite suggestion of a the ridge extending west @24 yet Maria goes straight up into it. I included the 84 because that is when the trough comes through and kicks it OTS.

NAM=garbage model in terms of tropics. my opinion

The @24 is from my post of the GFS. The NAM post was @66.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091628
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 44 20110909
161900 1507N 05610W 8426 01575 0107 +161 +111 106019 019 033 003 00
161930 1506N 05611W 8424 01579 0106 +161 +109 105019 020 035 002 00
162000 1505N 05613W 8425 01574 0106 +160 +110 104019 021 035 002 00
162030 1504N 05614W 8425 01576 0106 +160 +116 109020 021 035 001 00
162100 1503N 05616W 8422 01575 0105 +158 +120 110020 022 032 003 00
162130 1502N 05617W 8425 01572 0105 +158 +120 106021 023 032 006 00
162200 1501N 05618W 8425 01574 0104 +159 +121 104022 023 034 004 00
162230 1500N 05620W 8422 01572 0099 +164 +119 099023 024 033 003 00
162300 1459N 05621W 8428 01575 0103 +162 +120 101024 024 029 004 03
162330 1457N 05622W 8422 01575 0101 +160 +120 103022 023 032 000 00
162400 1456N 05622W 8424 01571 0102 +160 +119 101022 022 030 001 00
162430 1454N 05623W 8424 01569 0098 +164 +114 096022 022 030 000 00
162500 1452N 05623W 8426 01569 0094 +171 +106 094021 022 028 000 03
162530 1451N 05623W 8426 01565 0090 +175 +102 092021 022 029 000 03
162600 1449N 05624W 8426 01568 0090 +176 +101 093020 021 029 000 00
162630 1447N 05624W 8425 01569 0089 +175 +101 091020 021 030 000 00
162700 1446N 05624W 8425 01567 0086 +180 +100 088022 023 030 001 00
162730 1444N 05624W 8424 01569 0086 +179 +101 086024 024 032 001 00
162800 1442N 05624W 8432 01561 0086 +177 +102 086024 025 032 000 00
162830 1441N 05625W 8422 01568 0085 +180 +099 082024 024 032 001 00
$$

[artist]

obs 44

[clfenwi]

Flights for tomorrow

1. TROPICAL STORM MARIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/12Z,18Z
B. AFXXX 0514A MARIA
C. 10/1015Z
D. 16.5N 62.4W
E. 10/1130Z TO 10/18Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 76
A. 11/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 0414A MARIA
C. 10/2000Z
D. 17.9N 64.5W
E. 10/2330Z TO 11/06Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[SFLcane]

Eviljeremy What ridge?? There's been no persistent high pressure over the eastern USA and the western Atlantic this season.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091638
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 45 20110909
162900 1439N 05625W 8428 01563 0084 +181 +099 087026 027 031 001 00
162930 1437N 05625W 8416 01575 0082 +184 +099 086024 025 031 000 00
163000 1436N 05625W 8423 01567 0082 +185 +103 093020 021 031 000 03
163030 1434N 05625W 8425 01565 0083 +183 +104 110016 019 032 000 00
163100 1432N 05626W 8422 01567 0084 +177 +106 114013 015 032 001 00
163130 1431N 05626W 8426 01562 0079 +186 +106 135013 013 034 001 03
163200 1429N 05626W 8424 01566 0079 +189 +103 134013 014 035 000 03
163230 1428N 05627W 8418 01572 0076 +191 +102 137010 011 034 000 03
163300 1427N 05628W 8429 01559 0076 +192 +103 139009 010 032 000 00
163330 1425N 05629W 8424 01565 0074 +194 +103 169007 008 031 000 03
163400 1424N 05630W 8429 01565 0079 +190 +104 182007 007 031 001 03
163430 1424N 05632W 8427 01563 0075 +192 +105 182007 008 030 000 00
163500 1424N 05633W 8419 01569 0076 +190 +106 158006 007 028 000 00
163530 1423N 05635W 8426 01563 0077 +190 +107 144005 006 030 000 00
163600 1423N 05637W 8422 01567 0078 +190 +107 123005 006 028 000 03
163630 1422N 05638W 8421 01569 0079 +188 +108 124004 005 027 000 03
163700 1420N 05639W 8425 01564 0077 +187 +110 116002 003 028 000 03
163730 1419N 05640W 8425 01564 0079 +185 +111 090002 002 028 000 03
163800 1418N 05641W 8421 01569 0080 +185 +112 087002 004 026 000 03
163830 1416N 05641W 8426 01560 0079 +184 +113 096004 005 027 000 00
$$

[artist]

obs 45