ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[dwsqos2]

Euro's a bit stronger than 0Z run through hour 96; just north of the Dominican Republic at that point.

Euro solution actuallly looks like a legit TC, as opposed to the earlier weak low progs.

[Lowpressure]

With regards to the NHC, if recon finds a bit of a complex mess they'll probably drop the chances of development back to 90 or maybe even 80%...thats what normally happens when recon can't confirm a system and the NHC have "near 100%".

Also, if they find an elongated mess, which it appears they have, they will most likely not upgrade because there would be no way to pin point a LLC. Then, once the systems did organize, the error could be over 100 miles and all model data/ warnings watches would then be garbage. Complex for sure, one reason we have recon.

[KWT]

Indeed Lp, its a bit of a shame recon has gone missing again, because we'd probably have a clear idea by now what state the eastern system is in right now.

[caneseddy]

Euro out through 120 has it intensifying in the Eastern Bahamas lifting north...looks like a recurve on this one...however, I notice that it seems the Euro is initializing with the eastern blob rather than the western blob

At 144 rapidly intensifying right over eastern Bahamas due east of South Florida

At 168 heading out to sea looks like

At 192 heading out to sea brushing west of Bermuda

[Cainer]

91L 24 hours ago:



91L now:



Looked a lot better yesterday in my opinion. Just can't quite seem to tighten up. As long as the two blobs remain separate entities, I don't think much significant development is going to occur soon.

[KWT]

Euro probably is under-estimating the western complex it seems, deffo merges the two though...

Possibly not that bad of a call actually but I'm pretty sure the western one is going to absorb the MLC, it looks stronger at the surface at the moment.

[msbee]

Not knocking the NHC, but I would be interested to know what doubts they still have as to it being a cyclone already. Normally I agree with their conservative, wait-and-see approach, but given the level of organization and the immediate threat to land I never imagined they would wait all the way until recon to classify it.

I agree. the Western portion is on top of some of the islands now and there still is no information.
People here feel confused about what to do.

[scotto]

It looks like the one to the west is slowing down and the easterly one is going to run in to it.

[KWT]

Cainer, I agree, I think one is going to have to absorb the other fopr it to develop...I guess thats why most models don't strengthen this system too much in the near future bar the GFDL.

It did look better yesterday because back then it was only one elongated center...now there is probably 2.

I'd have thought with weaker steering currents the western system should slow down, may make a merger possible 12-24hrs down the line.

[Zampanò]

Is the plane having communications issues?

[Dave]

Is the plane having communications issues?

Believe so, somethings definitely going wrong out there. This is the 2nd time this has happened so far today.

[Recurve]

I'm not seeing anything since last HDOB at 17:47 z

[WxEnthus]

In GE, in the top you have something called "Add Image Overlay" and there is where you add the url

Aha, thanks!

[KWT]

168hrs shows 91L deepening heading near due north, deepening low to its north will almost certainly enduce recurve at 192hrs, not that far off from a outer banks threat though.

[sunnyday]

So. Fla. newspaper says today that the storm will take a strong east turn into the Bahamas, thus missing Florida. That's not very responsible to be so certain at this point, is it?

[cheezyWXguy]

NHC need to detour recon into the western system, thats where any LLC is...

Disagree - the eastern area is finally beginning to organize in earnest and I think it will eventually destroy or absorb the weaker circulation ahead of it. It has the "look". I expect a hurricane sometime tomorrow.

uhhh....good luck with that prediction...

[vacanechaser]

Euro out through 120 has it intensifying in the Eastern Bahamas lifting north...looks like a recurve on this one...however, I notice that it seems the Euro is initializing with the eastern blob rather than the western blob

At 144 rapidly intensifying right over eastern Bahamas due east of South Florida

At 168 heading out to sea looks like

ok, where the hell is everyone seeing this euro... i have been watching the operational at the ecmwf website and do not see what you are talking about.. so could someone please enlighten me to where you guys are looking... thanx



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Seems like recon has had quite a few problems regarding communications for the last week, had a few issues with Don as well from what I remember.

Lets hope the NHC are still getting a good feed!

[Dave]

I'm not seeing anything since last HDOB at 17:47 z

Same here HDOBS 16 was the last received.

[KWT]

This is the link for the ECM:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html

A much stronger system this time from the ECM, esp in the Bahamas northwards...