ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Bocadude85]

Seems like this could be a close call for the SE US next week. Still think David in 1979 is a good analog for a potential track.

[Evil Jeremy]

So. Fla. newspaper says today that the storm will take a strong east turn into the Bahamas, thus missing Florida. That's not very responsible to be so certain at this point, is it?

No, but props to them for discussing the system this far out. At least people may know that a system could be coming close to us.

[vacanechaser]

thanx kwt..




Jesse V. Baass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Explodes into a strong system on the ECM at 192hrs, recurving ENE out to sea, very close to Bermuda!

models have been shifting westwards overall today, at least for the first 96hrs, thats something that will need to be watched.

[Nimbus]

I've been trying to get a center fix. Looks like about 13.7 N at 53 W. Last center fix I had was 12.6 N at 48 W. A little more than a degree of latitude north for 5 every degrees west. Some of that could have been the system lifting out of the ITC.

[Recurve]

The HWRF that cycloneye posted (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011073112-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation) has it at 25N 74W heading northward having reached 75-85 knots (bouncing around some), but not sure there's enough weakness north of it to keep it headed that way, although the ridge in the Atlantic isn't blocking it either. Anybody else see anything?

[KWT]

It looks like the one to the west is slowing down and the easterly one is going to run in to it.

Thats a possible solution, the surface low of the western one would likely become dominant and the two will merge together.

Thats at least what the ECm/Nogaps have both been showing on thier 12z.

[x-y-no]

Well this throws a spanner in the works:

31/1745 UTC 13.1N 56.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

OB 16 of recon (last set I've seen) had NW winds in what should have been the NW quad of the old (trailing) circulation. But that makes sense if the leading blob has taken over.

If that's the case - throw all the models out.

[EyELeSs1]

look where they placed the center
31/1745 UTC 13.1N 56.8W T1.5/1.5 91L

[sunnyday]

They've been discussing it for a couple of days now. Readers are writing in, making fun of it all and saying to head to the store and buy up all the bread! They say they don't care if it doesn't come where they live!

[KWT]

I've been trying to get a center fix. Looks like about 13.7 N at 53 W. Last center fix I had was 12.6 N at 48 W. A little more than a degree of latitude north for 5 every degrees west. Some of that could have been the system lifting out of the ITC.

Good luck trying to get a center fix, its pretty messy out there and there are two regions that seems to be competing and disruping each other at the moment.

Thats why I'd put rather small amount of trust in the models for now.

[Aric Dunn]

The HWRF that cycloneye posted (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011073112-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation) has it at 25N 74W heading northward having reached 75-85 knots (bouncing around some), but not sure there's enough weakness north of it to keep it headed that way, although the ridge in the Atlantic isn't blocking it either. Anybody else see anything?

yeah posted that earlier..

[sunnyday]

XYNO, why would they throw all the models out? How would the direction change then?

[Hurricaneman]

look where they placed the center
31/1745 UTC 13.1N 56.8W T1.5/1.5 91L

if that true, throw all the model runs in the trash bin because they would be wrong

[Recurve]

The western area should fade away as the the low near 14N 52W continues to organize and deepen. That is where Recon. will be investigating and likely to find our TC!

Another double-yolk elongated disturbance to deal with. Hopefully the yoke is not on us.

Best hurricane pun of the YEAR!

[tailgater]

Recon windfield data will be very interesting.

100% agree

Can you post the web site for this PIC. thanks in advance.

[Aric Dunn]

look where they placed the center
31/1745 UTC 13.1N 56.8W T1.5/1.5 91L

if that true, throw all the model runs in the trash bin because they would be wrong

well that is just the mean center of the two areas... just splitting the difference.

[Dave]

31/1745 UTC 13.1N 56.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Still no updates from AF304 on HDOBS..

Someone else take over please, I have to leave soon. Good luck & thanks!

[pgoss11]

look where they placed the center
31/1745 UTC 13.1N 56.8W T1.5/1.5 91L

if that true, throw all the model runs in the trash bin because they would be wrong

well that is just the mean center of the two areas... just splitting the difference.

So there's not two entities? This is just one big mess?? Wow.. will be awhile before this will consolidate into some sort of organization.

[pgoss11]

look where they placed the center
31/1745 UTC 13.1N 56.8W T1.5/1.5 91L

if that true, throw all the model runs in the trash bin because they would be wrong

well that is just the mean center of the two areas... just splitting the difference.

So there's not two entities? This is just one big mess?? Wow.. will be awhile before this will consolidate into some sort of organization.