ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[x-y-no]

XYNO, why would they throw all the models out? How would the direction change then?

Center is 5 degrees west and half a degree south of where they thought it was. Makes the timing and strength of interaction with the trough completely different.

[KWT]

I'm not so sure Aric, because its quite close to where I think any circulation probably is on the western side given what recon had and I think looking at the loops it sure does look like the rotation is in that sort of area, maybe a hair west.

Recon certainly doesn't back up the idea that the eastern one is stronger.

[TheBurn]

[SunnyThoughts]

So frustrating we have recon inside the system and can't see any Obs.

[Aric Dunn]

if you put wind over on .. you can see that trinidad and tobago have NW winds the barbados has ene winds.. at least it points to a closed low with the western area..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[x-y-no]

I don't think so Aric. There certainly appears to be a surface circulation there, and as I said recon had NW winds in a place where they ought to have been NE if there's any significant trailing circulation.

[SunnyThoughts]

A tale of twin Blobs. I think the first blob is slowing down and the second blob is going to crash head on into it. Guess they'll merge together in some way?

[KWT]

The funny thing is the eastern are has got mucvh better upper support, yet it seems the western area is starting to become dominant.

I guess its because the flow is slower with the leading system whilst the LL winds are still racing quite quickly for the eastern system, thus allowing the western one better convergence.

[cycloneye]

Is rare to not have a best track position by now at this time after 18z.

[x-y-no]

A tale of twin Blobs. I think the first blob is slowing down and the second blob is going to crash head on into it. Guess they'll merge together in some way?

They could do the Fujiwara dance, but more likely one kills the other, with the lead blob being the favorite to do that at this point.

[KWT]

I suspect it'll eventually merger to be honest, the western system seems to be slowing down and I wouldn't be surprisded to see the energy relocate westwards...

A similar thing happened with Alex in 2010 which had something similar, the MLC was to the east and literally jumped a couple hundred miles and reformed over the surface circulation.

Slightly different set-up then granted, but shows it can happen.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm not so sure Aric, because its quite close to where I think any circulation probably is on the western side given what recon had and I think looking at the loops it sure does look like the rotation is in that sort of area, maybe a hair west.

Recon certainly doesn't back up the idea that the eastern one is stronger.

Yellow circle is the MLC..... the RED is the more defined seen on satellite and at least backed up with a few surface obs.. the blue is the best track position... clearly there is only east winds through the blue circle.. pretty sure they just picked the mean center between the two until something is verified.

[cheezyWXguy]

Actually 57W doesnt seem to be too far away from the center may be located. It does appear to be on the eastern fringe of convection, and it looks to me like the two entities may be in the initial stages of trying to merge. Tonight's DMAX might actually be the crucial time we're looking for to seal the deal with this one, as deeper convection would likely speed up the process of organization.

[Recurve]

Just staring at sat loops, you'd think we have two near TDs near each other, both trying to get going.

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[ozonepete]

A tale of twin Blobs. I think the first blob is slowing down and the second blob is going to crash head on into it. Guess they'll merge together in some way?

They could do the Fujiwara dance, but more likely one kills the other, with the lead blob being the favorite to do that at this point.

I was just thinking the same thing. There's a good chance now that they will not merge back together and the eastern disturbance will move to the northwest.

[KWT]

Aric, very interesting, if thats anywhere close then the models will probably need some serious shifting, and we'll probably be looking at a central America/Yucatan threat instead...

Long way to go yet though, will have to see how it evolves in the next 12hrs and what area decides to become dominant.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

They have the east low.

AL, 91, 2011073118, , BEST, 0, 135N, 528W, 30, 1007, LO

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm not so sure Aric, because its quite close to where I think any circulation probably is on the western side given what recon had and I think looking at the loops it sure does look like the rotation is in that sort of area, maybe a hair west.

Recon certainly doesn't back up the idea that the eastern one is stronger.

Yellow circle is the MLC..... the RED is the more defined seen on satellite and at least backed up with a few surface obs.. the blue is the best track position... clearly there is only east winds through the blue circle.. pretty sure they just picked the mean center between the two until something is verified.

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/2194 ... utyhnj.jpg

I hate to disagree with you, man, because I usually dont. But in this loop it doesnt look like there's any discernible center in the red circle you've drawn.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So let me get this straight. Obviously we have two "blobs" now. The one impacting the islands right now looks like it is actually organizing more and becoming more dominant. Thought I could see some kind of at a least mid-level spin when I zoomed in on the visible loop. On the other although the "blob" to the east looks to already have a nice developed circulation with it but diminishing convection. Could both of these develop or are they too close? Or if not don't see anything named developing for at least a day or so and all that means is more west it shall go. Like X Y NO said throw out all current models runs because they will definitely change.

[Aric Dunn]

the other thing is.. if the low to the west sits there for a little longer the upper high will soon position its self over that area..