ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

when does next GVI data get ingested into models with new center position?

[wzrgirl1]

yup ozonepete, that looks like the latest trend. this far out, getting closer and closer, the likelihood of a swing back west decreases, making me more confident that week's end will be no more than a bit blustery here in Tampa Bay.

But please remember that it has a quite large circulation and any deviation to the track to the west by even one degree can make all the difference in the angle and the effects on you. You may not get the brunt but you still may get a ton of rain.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

yeah, it is still too far out to let guards down to the west of the state. when was the last GVI data sampled and input into the models? if a few days old, much could be different in the synoptics now than then, and the model runs built on old assumptions.
we are still days away and have noticed the last few runs showing a weaker trough scenario each time. if THAT trend continues, there could be a more steady NW movement versus a more northerly component to track. or a stall could occur and the storm end up trapped, or meandering around through the state until a pathway became available to it. wow, that would really be a bad flooding scenario.

[ozonepete]

yup ozonepete, that looks like the latest trend. this far out, getting closer and closer, the likelihood of a swing back west decreases, making me more confident that week's end will be no more than a bit blustery here in Tampa Bay.

But please remember that it has a quite large circulation and any deviation to the track to the west by even one degree can make all the difference in the angle and the effects on you. You may not get the brunt but you still may get a ton of rain.

Smart.

[northjaxpro]

if the storm strengthens rapidly, doesn't that have a feedback affect on the ridge? we've seen strong storms do that to the ridge in the past, making it build/become stronger. normally a stronger storm heads more poleward, as long as there is a weakness. but without the weakness yet, it could make the ridge stronger and in the short term have a more westerly component as it progresses near hispanola. that would make the curving around the periphery potentially take a wee bit longer before it would occur. will be very interesting to watch the models development of the ridge through teh week, whether they believe it will build back, and if so, how rapidly, if at all.
so much in play here.
concerning that the more northern relocation may allow for a scrape of hispanola to the northern side of the island and missing a lot of cuba too. storm would stay over warmest waters longer prior to FL landfall, or to east of it. best case actually is rapid intensification that really feels the weakness and heads east of florida. not good for carolinas down the road though. ugh, just bad scenario developing for someone. doesn't look like conus will escape this one.

I agree that somewhere on the east coast is in trouble, especialy if it passes just north of Hispaniola and has a long time over warm water. I think that the east coast of Florida and the Carolinas should be watching this very carefully.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

When Irene rapidly strengthened yesterday much earlier than the models indicated and the center reformed farther north as well, I anticipated the right shift of the model consensus to occur. Now, the HUGE factor now is whether or not Irene is able to somehow get pass Hispaniola without sustaining much disruption. I have to say that as Irene continues to get better organized, the probabilities of her possibly moving barely just north of Hispaniola is increasing. If Irene continues to get stronger, she can continue to gain latitude little bit by little bit . The possibilityof having less interaction with Hispaniola would continue to be enhanced as time progresses if Irene continues to pull together.

[ozonepete]

when does next GVI data get ingested into models with new center position?

I think that data gets into the 12Z (8 AM) run. The results from that 12Z run come out about 11 or 11:30 AM to the public but the NHC probably gets them in time for their 11 AM update.

[ronjon]

I wouldn't rule out an eastern GOM track yet. The NHC discussion indicated some rather stout ridging from land soundings over the GA and Bahamas. The GFDL is a decent model and I'll remind everyone that it correctly predicted Katrina's SW movement off the east coast of FL. Still 4-5 days out, If we get 2 or 3 more cycles of FL east caost runs then that should seal it. But they could swing the other way too. It won't take much of an angle change to affect either coast of FL.

[blazess556]

Recon is on the runway.

[Nimbus]

At least with the current track there is enough land interaction to prevent Irene from bombing into a major hurricane. Puerto Rico is on the strong side of the storm but if the eye stays south they won't have catastrophic damage, just the usual floods. Hispaniola will probably get the worst of it as it makes landfall in the Dominican Republic. We all know how bad the effects can be on that island. People build habitats with light construction in flood risk areas.

As long as Irene keeps moving it shouldn't be too bad. The danger I see for Florida is if she slows down in light steering conditions near the straits or the Bahamas. Some of the strongest hurricanes go through RI in that area. Have to wait and see if we get lucky like with Emily and Pic la Selle.

[ozonepete]

I wouldn't rule out an eastern GOM track yet. The NHC discussion indicated some rather stout ridging from land soundings over the GA and Bahamas. The GFDL is a decent model and I'll remind everyone that it correctly predicted Katrina's SW movement off the east coast of FL. Still 4-5 days out, If we get 2 or 3 more cycles of FL east caost runs then that should seal it. But they could swing the other way too. It won't take much of an angle change to affect either coast of FL.

Absolutely. We have to wait for the 12Z runs to see what the models say, and we won't see those results until around 11AM. The biggest problem is if Irene goes more to the north before the 12Z model runs. Then the output track will be too far south.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

I have to give all the credit to Aric for his analysis of where the real center was last night. But that will cause that PR will be very much in the bulls eye if the current track prevails. You will not see me a lot today.

[northjaxpro]

I wouldn't rule out an eastern GOM track yet. The NHC discussion indicated some rather stout ridging from land soundings over the GA and Bahamas. The GFDL is a decent model and I'll remind everyone that it correctly predicted Katrina's SW movement off the east coast of FL. Still 4-5 days out, If we get 2 or 3 more cycles of FL east caost runs then that should seal it. But they could swing the other way too. It won't take much of an angle change to affect either coast of FL.

You are right. If we see consistency from the models for the next 48 hours of the Eastern solution, then I really really would get concerned here in Jax. But, there is a possibility it could shift 200-250 miles back west again. That's the cone of uncertainty in effect right there.

Lots of ifs still in play for sure!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Good morning to all.

I have to give all the credit to Aric for his analysis of where the real center was last night. But that will cause that PR will be very much in the bulls eye if the current track prevails. You will not see me a lot today.

Tu seguridad es mas importante. pero, si es posible, sera aqui con nosotros.

[northjaxpro]

Cycloneye, be very safe down there over these next 24-36 hours or so. Keep us posted as much as you can, but I prefer you to do that when it is safe. It could get very nasty unfortunately down there.

[cycloneye]

Plane still taxing on runway.Departure shortly.

[HurricaneQueen]

Good morning to all.

I have to give all the credit to Aric for his analysis of where the real center was last night. But that will cause that PR will be very much in the bulls eye if the current track prevails. You will not see me a lot today.

Be safe, Luis. We will be thinking of you and our other S2k members and their families. Prayers going out for all of you.

Lynn

[jinftl]

Graphic based on 5am track shows a swath of sustained 58 mph winds working their way up peninsula south of Lake O and sustained 39 mph winds from I-4 south at 2am on Friday....with gusts to 104 mph just east of the eye (over my house)....of course this will change as the forecast track changes. But this could be a peninsula-wide event to some extent.

yup ozonepete, that looks like the latest trend. this far out, getting closer and closer, the likelihood of a swing back west decreases, making me more confident that week's end will be no more than a bit blustery here in Tampa Bay.

But please remember that it has a quite large circulation and any deviation to the track to the west by even one degree can make all the difference in the angle and the effects on you. You may not get the brunt but you still may get a ton of rain.

[cycloneye]

You can see how are things going in the NE Caribbean in some of the many web cams and the radars that are on the first post of the Caribbean - Central America Weather thread. Some cams are not working. viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&start=0

Here is one of them from St Barts.

[SouthFLTropics]

Good morning to all.

I have to give all the credit to Aric for his analysis of where the real center was last night. But that will cause that PR will be very much in the bulls eye if the current track prevails. You will not see me a lot today.

Batten down the hatches and be safe down there Luis.

SFT

[northjaxpro]

Good morning to all.

I have to give all the credit to Aric for his analysis of where the real center was last night. But that will cause that PR will be very much in the bulls eye if the current track prevails. You will not see me a lot today.

Be safe, Luis. We will be thinking of you and our other S2k members and their families. Prayers going out for all of you.

Lynn

+1