ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Looks like a decent eastward shift coming with the EURO

I don't know, the kicker looked better at 0z

[Sanibel]

Beginning of a better organization trend IMO...

[Frank2]

AJC3,

That's what I noticed too - it's about 1 degree north of the NHC plots, so if true that'd make a recurving system more possible, per the discussion...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

I think you can see what's happening now. Starting last night, the system elongated along a WSW-ENE axis as convection blew up. On the 1715 UTC visible image, you can see what appears to be a cusp at the NE end of the slightly elongated vort axis up around 14.5N/15N and 57.5W, which is NE of the 18Z analyzed NHC position of 14.3N 57.9W. I think this will be the area where the center tries to consolidate, and that you'll likely see a slight northward or northeast shift of the center position relative to it's previous speed/movement, assuming it can consolidate a little better.

its quite possible, the greatest vorticity and dynamics would point towards the NE side. the elongation is quite large though with the N winds all the way the SE carribean and the only real west winds are south of barbados. once it slows down more the NE side will rotate NW around the southern half depending on where the center actually consolidates will be Key. in the mean time the whole thing will continue more westerly.

[Gustywind]

First squall line in my area.

[xironman]

Ha! I posted the 0z by a mistake, still WNW

[xironman]

And the trough catches her, off to Bermuda.

=

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[artist]

First squall line in my area.

stay safe Gusty! Thanks for your report.

[islandguy246]

its gone very hot and humid here (even though it's overcast). Winds almost calm.

[wxman57]

Mid-level rotation definitely increasing near 15N/57.4W, but obs don't indicate much at the surface yet. Maria is on its way to developing an LLC up around there. Still looks like winds 25-40 mph on average for the islands north of 15N tonight/tomorrow. Lots of rain, though, maybe 7-10 inches.

[jhpigott]

Wasn't the 00z EURO fairly close to the OBX? This looks like it could be a significant shift eastward

[Gustywind]

First squall line in my area.

stay safe Gusty! Thanks for your report.

Thanks my friend. I will try to keep you informed as usual and as... possible. Winds have picked up nicely but nothing impressive, rain was modest too but that was a nice one.

[wxman57]

its gone very hot and humid here (even though it's overcast). Winds almost calm.

Here's a sat pic with surface obs. Light wind, 82 degrees. Seems cool to me.

[cycloneye]

Those members who may want to see what is going on in the islands by the way of Web Cams and radars go here. You can have a flavor of how are things in the islands going as Maria approaches. Some cams are not working.

[Nimbus]

Now that she has slowed down there should be some gradual strengthening. The circulation is quite broad so I doubt it will tighten up very fast. Still a concern for Puerto Rico and in 48 hours or so maybe we will get a better consensus solution for the Atlantic ridging.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yeah I was wondering how far west Maria may go because she is a weak and rather shallow storm. Will the low level flow steer her west or will she get picked up north?

[AJC3]

Wasn't the 00z EURO fairly close to the OBX? This looks like it could be a significant shift eastward

Different system. By days 8-10 both the 00Z GFS and ECM had been forecasting a mostly baroclinic or hybrid low to form near there as a 500MB cutoff over South Carolina. The difference was the ECM, being was slower with Maria's forward speed as it got north of Hispanola, and basically pulled the 500 MB center of Maria northward, leaving the low level vort to get pulled into that developing system. The GFS system was weaker and entirely baroclinically initiated (BI). I haven't seen the 12Z GFS out through days 8-10...I'll need to check it out.

[xironman]

Wasn't the 00z EURO fairly close to the OBX? This looks like it could be a significant shift eastward

That is only because it decapitated Maria, and left her hanging out there for three days until the cutoff made a hybrid out her debris.

[edit]

Sorry AJC3 did not see your post.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 14, 2011090918, , BEST, 0, 144N, 580W, 40, 1004, TS

[jhpigott]

Thanks for the explanation.