ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

Thats going to be a close call, can see it just missing out and going upto 60kts, but this convective burst is decent its got to be said!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

AFTER A LULL BETWEEN 0400 AND 0600 UTC...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
RE-BLOSSOMED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF HARVEY...WHICH IS VERY
NEAR ROATAN ACCORDING TO A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THAT ISLAND.
SINCE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE STRUCTURE WHEN
THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION WAS INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 50 KT. ANOTHER RECON
MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH HARVEY AROUND 1200 UTC.

BASED ON THE ROATAN OBSERVATIONS...HARVEY MAY HAVE PICKED UP SOME
SPEED...AND ITS INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/10. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE STEERING HARVEY ON A NEARLY CONSTANT WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING BEFORE HARVEY REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER
TODAY. THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE THE HIGHEST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INDICATE THAT HARVEY COULD BE JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 12 HOURS. SINCE LANDFALL ON THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WOULD BE WITHIN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD...IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT HARVEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE
MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE EVEN THOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN FACT...THERE IS A 1 IN 3 CHANCE
OF THAT OCCURRING...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND RECENT NHC
INTENSITY ERRORS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER HARVEY MOVES
INLAND...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AND BEYOND
FOLLOWS THE DECAY OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS. DISSIPATION IS NOW
EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.

BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA
HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE GUATEMALAN COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 16.4N 86.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 16.5N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 16.7N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1800Z 16.9N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0600Z 17.2N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[GCANE]

Looks like an eyewall building on the southern part of the COC.

http://64.19.142.15/tropic.ssec.wisc.ed ... t24hrs.gif


http://64.19.142.13/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... W.71pc.jpg


IMHO may not close off before landfall.

[GCANE]

Been firing as a hot tower for the last 4.5 hrs.



http://64.19.142.12/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... bean.0.jpg

http://64.19.142.13/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... bean.0.jpg

http://64.19.142.12/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... bean.0.jpg

[GCANE]

ADT est is just about 65 knts.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 200415.jpg

[tailgater]

The latest GFS and NAM runs have Harvey making into BOC, Any idea what conditions will be like there in a couple days.

[tailgater]

NAM in 84 hrs.

[BZSTORM]

good morning anyone watching this forum who can post the recon data shouldnt it be arriving in about 10 mins at site, sorry jumpy this morning new track has this landing right on my door literally - I live in Seine Bight on Placencia peninsula, in fact new track puts it center right up the airstrip.

[RL3AO]

409
URNT12 KNHC 201216
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011
A. 20/11:55:00Z
B. 16 deg 41 min N
087 deg 00 min W
C. 850 mb 1434 m
D. 47 kt
E. 168 deg 2 nm
F. 103 deg 47 kt
G. 004 deg 8 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C / 1532 m
J. 22 C / 1513 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0508A HARVEY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 47 KT N QUAD 11:47:10Z
;

[bahamaswx]

Never seen a CDO form so quickly.

[NDG]

Weird how Harvey has a great satellite presentation this morning but yet Recon has not found to be not as strong as last night.

[tolakram]

[dwsqos2]

I can't say I'm shocked; it looks like it's under some northeasterly shear. Also, the Roatan obs were absolutely pathetic. If the central pressure had been 994 mb, then I would have expected stronger winds given that the pressure only dropped to 1005 mb there.

EDIT-Maybe more northerly shear, but still the anticyclone isn't well-positioned.

[tolakram]

I can only do a few images this morning then I'm out most of the day.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar

[BZSTORM]

Anything you can post is good tolakram and appreciated, I understand I'm packing my house at same time as checking forums. Even if BZ Met is right and it makes landfall at Dangriga then I'm still in the TS winds as its only 37 miles away. I'd like to know where center now is for sure and if that start of eye wall showing last night on infra red has borken down. They are estimating landfall to be 4.30pm now 2 hours earlier as moving faster.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Did you see the radar loop in the Harvey discussion thread? Take care down there!

[cycloneye]

Belize webcams.

[tolakram]

Heading out, posting one last graphic, can anyone take over? Plane nearing second center fix.