ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chrisjslucia]

Persistent rain - mainly drizzle type English rain with occasional stronger showers, no wind this afternoon, occasional thunder close by and in the distance to the North. Martinique not visible today - grey, grey, grey. Any observations from Barbados recently?
Closing down for a while but if there is anything significant to report, I'll keep you posted.

[artist]

Persistent rain - mainly drizzle type English rain with occasional stronger showers, no wind this afternoon, occasional thunder close by and in the distance to the North. Martinique not visible today - grey, grey, grey. Any observations from Barbados recently?
Closing down for a while but if there is anything significant to report, I'll keep you posted.

look forward to your reports and everyone in the islands.
Stay safe all.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

I think you can see what's happening now. Starting last night, the system elongated along a WSW-ENE axis as convection blew up. On the 1715 UTC visible image, you can see what appears to be a cusp at the NE end of the slightly elongated vort axis up around 14.5N/15N and 57.5W, which is NE of the 18Z analyzed NHC position of 14.3N 57.9W. I think this will be the area where the center tries to consolidate, and that you'll likely see a slight northward or northeast shift of the center position relative to it's previous speed/movement, assuming it can consolidate a little better.

its quite possible, the greatest vorticity and dynamics would point towards the NE side. the elongation is quite large though with the N winds all the way the SE carribean and the only real west winds are south of barbados. once it slows down more the NE side will rotate NW around the southern half depending on where the center actually consolidates will be Key. in the mean time the whole thing will continue more westerly.

If Maria continues to move westward as you are suggesting (in opposition to the models), it could be a serious problem to all of us here in Puerto Rico and nearby islands, since the NE part of the system is the strongest (as usual) and that part of the system will be affecting the island if that forecast verifies. Also the system has slow down considerably giving the opportunity to dump even more rain than anticipated.

[terrapintransit]

Hoping she stays away from the Mid Atlantic.....Can't afford anymore rain up here...Totally catastrophic from Lee

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF recurve way east of Florida and the Bahamas.

[CronkPSU]

from page 1 of this thread...

over/under 100 pages...i say over

I should have taken the under...really thought this one had a chance for something other than a recurve

hopefully it stays weak now and just gives the islands a night of thunderstorms

[ouragans]

Can someone explain me what I cannot understand as per latest sat pics? Non, I cannot understand that

Date : 09 SEP 2011 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 14:32:06 N Lon : 58:25:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 988.4mb/ 61.0kt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt14L.html

[Adoquín]

Can someone explain me what I cannot understand as per latest sat pics? Non, I cannot understand that

Date : 09 SEP 2011 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 14:32:06 N Lon : 58:25:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 988.4mb/ 61.0kt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt14L.html

not sure where that came from but seems to be saying that the lowest pressure found by recon was 988 and 61 knots winds, I hope only at flight level, but not sure, lat long suggests wnw

[AJC3]

Can someone explain me what I cannot understand as per latest sat pics? Non, I cannot understand that

Date : 09 SEP 2011 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 14:32:06 N Lon : 58:25:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 988.4mb/ 61.0kt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt14L.html

That's a satellite estimate of intensity based purely on the Advanced Dvorak Technique, which I believe is an automated algorithm.

[cycloneye]

And to add,is not official from NHC.

[Adoquín]

thanks luis for the explanation, of course not great news if true

[ouragans]

I cannot believe this... 61 kts... almost a hurricane

[AJC3]

I cannot believe this... 61 kts... almost a hurricane

Again, that's just an automated estimate, and was not supported by any of the recon obs from the earlier mission. So, no...not almost a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

I cannot believe this... 61 kts... almost a hurricane

Is not official information but only estimates.

[ouragans]

I cannot believe this... 61 kts... almost a hurricane

Is not official information but only estimates.

I can breathe now, thanks guys

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...RAIN BANDS FROM MARIA MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 58.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICA
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND BE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Aric Dunn]

they say its moving NW..??? guess they are thinking the LLC will develop near the MLC. no evidence yet.

[Adoquín]

the earlier mission findings are moot now. This thing is looking better and better....however derived and even if over stated, those numbers are consistent with it getting better organized. perhaps a bump to 50 - 55 mph in the next advisory?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...RAIN BANDS FROM MARIA MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 58.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]