ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[cpdaman]

Perhaps they could go thru deep convection in ne quad extensively this am

[Aric Dunn]

Well not surprised the center is even farther north. after the developments from late last night.

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

Can't find many examples of systems taking the track over the spine of Hispaniola and rapidly developing into a big cane for SFL. NHC says 85 mph and says that is on the conservative side.

[cycloneye]

Saved pic.

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends . The night was pretty calm and glad to see that! Nothing special to report in Guadeloupe. Given Meteo-France Guadeloupe only two localities received nice amount of water between 50 to 100 millimeters meanwhile most of the localities reported values near 10 to 30 millimeters. No report of damages and strong gusts here.
Looks like Irene spared us a bit and that's the good news while the Northern Leewards should feel the effects of a TS.
Msbee be safe and dry, keep us informed, best thoughts. Cycloneye... que Dios bendiga la isla del encanto, PR (i know that you are prepared). Gustywind and all the Leewardians are with you

[Aric Dunn]

Last 30 to 45 min the center has again started to pull a little farther north do to the convection wrapping around to the north... now it may going right down the middle of PR

[RL3AO]

089
URNT12 KNHC 211228
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 21/12:08:00Z
B. 16 deg 46 min N
062 deg 22 min W
C. 850 mb 1477 m
D. 36 kt
E. 304 deg 33 nm
F. 043 deg 43 kt
G. 307 deg 43 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 16 C / 1529 m
J. 17 C / 1524 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 02
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NW QUAD 11:48:00Z
;

[cycloneye]

Another saved pic at 12z.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 211234
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 14 20110821
122430 1612N 06145W 7818 02212 //// +149 //// 200020 021 /// /// 05
122500 1611N 06144W 7816 02214 //// +143 //// 200017 020 /// /// 05
122530 1610N 06143W 7817 02216 //// +133 //// 204011 011 /// /// 05
122600 1609N 06141W 7819 02216 //// +144 //// 193013 018 /// /// 05
122630 1607N 06140W 7822 02212 //// +147 //// 195017 020 /// /// 05
122700 1606N 06139W 7827 02209 //// +153 //// 193020 021 /// /// 05
122730 1605N 06138W 7817 02222 //// +150 //// 187024 025 /// /// 05
122800 1604N 06137W 7816 02219 //// +149 //// 185025 026 /// /// 05
122830 1603N 06136W 7816 02222 //// +148 //// 184026 027 /// /// 05
122900 1602N 06134W 7816 02220 //// +149 //// 182026 026 /// /// 05
122930 1601N 06133W 7819 02216 //// +145 //// 185026 027 017 000 05
123000 1559N 06132W 7868 02174 //// +148 //// 184025 025 012 000 01
123030 1558N 06131W 8008 02021 //// +160 //// 186023 024 012 001 01
123100 1557N 06130W 8146 01877 //// +170 //// 191022 023 015 000 01
123130 1556N 06129W 8301 01717 //// +170 //// 186020 021 015 000 01
123200 1555N 06128W 8413 01598 //// +176 //// 181019 020 015 000 01
123230 1554N 06127W 8430 01577 //// +177 //// 182020 021 013 000 01
123300 1553N 06126W 8426 01585 //// +180 //// 183022 022 010 002 01
123330 1552N 06124W 8431 01581 //// +180 //// 183022 022 012 001 01
123400 1551N 06123W 8426 01586 //// +174 //// 184022 022 012 002 01
$$
;

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

[cycloneye]

Last 30 to 45 min the center has again started to pull a little farther north do to the convection wrapping around to the north... now it may going right down the middle of PR

I hate to say it but you may be right.The PR spine is much less than Hispanolas as Georges showed.

[tolakram]

Can someone start posting obs while I continue images.

[miamijaaz]

Wow, it's going to be a close call for PR (assuming it's not a direct hit).

[jlauderdal]

Last 30 to 45 min the center has again started to pull a little farther north do to the convection wrapping around to the north... now it may going right down the middle of PR

this system might take an ideal route into the SE USA, if this N trend continues it stays off Hispaniola and has a a clean track in, minimal land interaction with very good conditions downstream...watch those intensity models go nuts if Hispaniola and eastern Cuba are neutralized

[jinftl]

You can see the spread in potential intensities - from dissipated (17%) to a Cat 3 (1%) at 120 hours (forecast landfall over south fla) - the key will be the trend in this distribution with future advisories. Out of all of this, they came up with the 85 mph forecast - this is a very good graphic the NHC releases...really illustrates the range of possibilities. Wouldn't want their job for a second!!!

Can't find many examples of systems taking the track over the spine of Hispaniola and rapidly developing into a big cane for SFL. NHC says 85 mph and says that is on the conservative side.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Another saved pic at 12z.

In that pic do I see the center trying to clear out could it be starting to form an eye wall?

[cycloneye]

Last 30 to 45 min the center has again started to pull a little farther north do to the convection wrapping around to the north... now it may going right down the middle of PR

I hate to say it but you may be right.The PR spine is much less than Hispanolas as Georges showed.

[tolakram]

[MiamiensisWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The 00Z ECMWF and the 06Z GFS reasonably concur as to track, with the ECMWF slightly slower and deeper through T+96. The models appear to differ as to the strength of Irene: in the next twenty-four hours before Hispaniola, the ECMWF shows significantly more intensification than does the GFS. The ECMWF in fact shows a minimal hurricane striking near Santo Domingo, whereas the GFS keeps a weaker, faster system farther southwest. Consequently, the ECMWF is, and has been, near the northern edge of the model consensus through T+36. This discrepancy is important to note, for Irene's intensity within 24hr should influence how much Irene interacts with the developing weakness in the subtropical ridge. Given Irene's relatively small inner core, I don't believe that the current mid-level dry air intrusion will exert significant influence beyond T+12, for the ridge to the north will erode somewhat due to falling heights off New England. If I were to make an informed guess, I would suggest a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS as far as intensity is concerned.

The earlier, 00Z GFS forecast soundings for SJU, PR, show that the pronounced mid-level inversion will begin to erode about this time, and the latest 12Z sounding shows that this is indeed occurring, albeit slower than what the model had projected. Also, recent satellite images show a strong convective band developing on the north side of the mid-level circulation. I believe this is to be anticipated due to deepening moisture flux in the northern quadrant. As instability increases through the afternoon, I suspect that this convection will increase due to greater lifting, which will be facilitated by the weakening inversion. As a result, this band should begin to curve around the northwest quadrant and link directly to the MLC. Within about twelve to eighteen hours, I think the re-intensification will commence.

Insofar as track is concerned, I think the convective pattern itself may force a heading near 280 degrees (N of due west) within the next 18hr. Observations suggest that the low-level circulation has become somewhat more disorganized in the past six hours due to the mid-level dry air intrusion. As the convection will be concentrated on the N and NW sides, the chance of a deviation to the WNW would tend to increase. Indeed, this is the reason as to why I believe another center reformation to the NNW will likely occur as Irene begins to reorganize SSE of Puerto Rico.

[Aric Dunn]

Last 30 to 45 min the center has again started to pull a little farther north do to the convection wrapping around to the north... now it may going right down the middle of PR

I hate to say it but you may be right.The PR spine is much less than Hispanolas as Georges showed.

yeah I saw this possibly coming yesterday. as large systems typically have much higher right bias during intensification.