ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah im asking the same thing. The recon observations are strange too. It seems they have found other circulations within the blob on radar..... #confused

[Dave]

[Dave]

200
URNT15 KNHC 021625
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20110902
161500 2738N 09015W 8428 01550 0067 +185 +101 154022 024 031 001 00
161530 2737N 09016W 8429 01550 0067 +184 +102 155024 025 030 003 00
161600 2736N 09017W 8428 01550 0067 +183 +102 149023 024 032 001 00
161630 2735N 09018W 8429 01548 0067 +183 +103 151025 026 030 000 00
161700 2733N 09020W 8429 01549 0067 +183 +103 155028 029 030 001 00
161730 2732N 09021W 8423 01553 0070 +176 +101 155030 032 029 002 00
161800 2731N 09022W 8428 01547 0064 +184 +101 149027 027 029 000 00
161830 2730N 09023W 8428 01547 0065 +184 +102 155027 027 029 000 00
161900 2729N 09025W 8426 01549 0065 +183 +102 162025 026 027 001 00
161930 2728N 09026W 8430 01544 0060 +189 +101 161023 024 027 000 00
162000 2727N 09027W 8428 01545 0060 +189 +101 158020 021 028 000 00
162030 2726N 09028W 8428 01546 0059 +190 +103 160017 018 028 001 00
162100 2725N 09030W 8425 01548 0057 +192 +104 155016 016 029 000 00
162130 2723N 09031W 8430 01544 0057 +194 +104 150015 016 029 000 00
162200 2722N 09032W 8426 01549 0059 +188 +105 143014 015 029 000 00
162230 2721N 09034W 8426 01545 0057 +190 +105 139014 014 027 000 00
162300 2720N 09035W 8432 01541 0058 +190 +105 148012 013 025 002 00
162330 2719N 09036W 8430 01545 0063 +186 +105 150012 014 /// /// 03
162400 2720N 09038W 8426 01548 0063 +185 +103 149015 015 026 001 00
162430 2721N 09040W 8430 01543 0062 +183 +104 148015 015 027 001 00
$$
;

[bigGbear]

What's with all this buildup to the southwest in the last few hours?

My guess is that the ULL N/W of it is beginning to dissipate. That will help relax the shear and dry air entrainment a bit and also allow more moisture to feed in from the S and SW. Crossing fingers that maybe, just "maybe", it could ease more NW and grow in size (which it's doing) and get at least some rainbands into parts of our drought stricken Texas....

Thanks and I second your finger crossing from here in Lake Jackson!

[KWT]

Looks like the GFS has backed off some on the ridiculously high rainfall totals, hopefully that is a good sign as the storm basically sits just under or over south central Louisiana for a few days. I don't think we would have a problem taking 5"-8" of rain spread out over a few days since it has been so dry.

I think the real flooding issues is a little to the east, over E.LA/MS and maybe into AL depending on track.

Main core of rain starting to move into the far SE of LA, more and more moisture becoming evident in the outer bands as the dry slots are filling in, classic sign of a strengthening depression/storm.

[Dave]

[underthwx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv.jpg



current still water vapor image...






Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

154
URNT15 KNHC 021634
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20110902
162500 2721N 09042W 8429 01544 0060 +185 +105 154014 015 026 001 00
162530 2722N 09043W 8430 01547 0063 +183 +106 151015 016 022 002 03
162600 2722N 09045W 8430 01543 0061 +184 +106 152012 012 020 001 00
162630 2721N 09047W 8425 01548 0061 +182 +106 151012 013 021 000 00
162700 2720N 09049W 8428 01545 0062 +184 +107 152013 013 021 000 00
162730 2720N 09050W 8428 01545 0063 +180 +107 158011 012 020 000 00
162800 2719N 09052W 8428 01546 0058 +185 +106 167009 010 021 000 00
162830 2718N 09054W 8433 01540 0057 +189 +106 182008 008 019 000 03
162900 2718N 09055W 8429 01542 0059 +184 +107 189008 008 018 000 00
162930 2718N 09057W 8428 01544 0061 +180 +108 180010 010 016 000 03
163000 2718N 09059W 8429 01542 0062 +179 +108 177010 011 015 000 00
163030 2718N 09101W 8429 01540 0058 +184 +108 173011 012 016 001 00
163100 2718N 09103W 8427 01543 0058 +184 +108 168011 011 017 000 00
163130 2718N 09105W 8428 01541 0057 +185 +109 172010 011 018 000 00
163200 2719N 09107W 8430 01537 0054 +187 +109 174009 010 015 000 00
163230 2719N 09108W 8429 01538 0053 +187 +110 179008 009 015 000 00
163300 2719N 09110W 8426 01542 0050 +194 +110 182007 008 016 000 00
163330 2719N 09112W 8426 01540 0049 +195 +110 183006 007 014 000 00
163400 2719N 09114W 8429 01540 0050 +193 +111 168008 009 012 000 00
163430 2719N 09116W 8427 01540 0051 +190 +111 175009 011 010 001 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

Did they drop something? what's with this crazy pattern they are flying. are they looking for somrthing?

I hope so..I was going crazy on getting the right pictures. Watching for it now.

By the way Dave and the rest of you guys posting these obs and pics, I would like to thank you for what you do.

From all of us..."Thank you"!

[Dave]

Waiting for GE to update

843
URNT15 KNHC 021644
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20110902
163500 2719N 09118W 8429 01538 0049 +193 +111 195008 009 012 000 00
163530 2719N 09119W 8432 01534 0049 +194 +110 187006 007 013 000 03
163600 2719N 09121W 8428 01540 0049 +193 +108 177006 007 011 000 00
163630 2719N 09123W 8428 01537 0050 +186 +108 159005 005 011 000 00
163700 2720N 09125W 8426 01540 0049 +192 +110 174002 003 009 000 00
163730 2720N 09127W 8427 01538 0049 +188 +110 149001 002 011 000 00
163800 2720N 09129W 8430 01532 0048 +188 +110 109003 004 010 000 00
163830 2721N 09130W 8427 01536 0049 +186 +111 088003 004 008 001 00
163900 2721N 09132W 8431 01536 0051 +187 +111 077003 003 009 000 03
163930 2720N 09134W 8425 01542 0051 +190 +110 050001 002 /// /// 03
164000 2719N 09133W 8426 01540 0050 +187 +111 196003 004 006 001 03
164030 2719N 09131W 8430 01533 0049 +190 +111 197004 005 008 000 03
164100 2719N 09129W 8427 01538 0050 +189 +111 216006 007 006 002 03
164130 2718N 09127W 8433 01531 0050 +190 +111 232007 007 012 000 00
164200 2716N 09126W 8425 01540 0051 +187 +112 240008 008 010 000 00
164230 2715N 09125W 8429 01535 0049 +189 +112 230008 008 008 000 00
164300 2714N 09123W 8416 01550 0053 +185 +110 222008 008 008 000 00
164330 2713N 09122W 8424 01545 0056 +185 +109 239010 011 010 000 00
164400 2711N 09120W 8429 01541 0055 +188 +111 233010 011 010 000 00
164430 2710N 09119W 8425 01546 0055 +192 +111 234009 010 011 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

Wide area for reference...

[Dave]

372
URNT15 KNHC 021654
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20110902
164500 2709N 09117W 8429 01543 0055 +191 +112 231011 012 014 000 00
164530 2707N 09116W 8425 01547 0056 +190 +112 230010 011 013 000 00
164600 2706N 09114W 8426 01546 0058 +188 +113 215012 013 017 000 00
164630 2704N 09113W 8425 01546 0059 +184 +113 221013 014 018 001 00
164700 2703N 09111W 8430 01540 0058 +184 +114 225012 013 017 001 00
164730 2702N 09110W 8422 01548 0054 +192 +112 218011 012 019 000 00
164800 2700N 09108W 8424 01546 0056 +190 +112 221010 010 016 000 00
164830 2659N 09107W 8425 01547 0056 +191 +112 225012 013 015 000 00
164900 2658N 09105W 8423 01552 0058 +188 +113 230013 014 024 000 00
164930 2656N 09103W 8427 01546 0061 +185 +113 225014 014 023 000 00
165000 2655N 09102W 8427 01545 0062 +183 +113 229012 013 022 001 00
165030 2653N 09100W 8424 01549 0063 +182 +111 233014 015 022 000 00
165100 2652N 09059W 8424 01550 0063 +182 +112 238013 014 022 000 00
165130 2651N 09057W 8425 01548 0063 +182 +112 233012 013 021 000 00
165200 2649N 09056W 8430 01545 0062 +186 +112 230013 014 022 000 00
165230 2648N 09054W 8428 01546 0063 +185 +113 222014 014 020 000 00
165300 2646N 09052W 8417 01558 0064 +183 +112 227013 014 021 001 00
165330 2645N 09051W 8422 01552 0064 +181 +112 228015 016 020 000 00
165400 2643N 09049W 8429 01547 0067 +180 +113 231015 015 019 000 00
165430 2642N 09047W 8430 01547 0068 +180 +113 229013 014 019 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 021657 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132011
A. 02/16:38:30Z
B. 27 deg 21 min N
091 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1464 m
D. 42 kt
E. 071 deg 73 nm
F. 154 deg 36 kt
G. 073 deg 75 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 18 C / 1524 m
J. 20 C / 1527 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF306 0213A CYCLONE OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 36 KT E QUAD 16:11:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 101 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Pearl River]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 16:57Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Tropical Depression: Number 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 16:38:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°21'N 91°30'W (27.35N 91.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 201 miles (323 km) to the S (171°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,464m (4,803ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 73 nautical miles (84 statute miles) to the ENE (71°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 154° at 36kts (From the SSE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the ENE (73°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 8 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:11:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E/ESE (101°) from the flight level center

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks to everyone who helps with recon data and images!

[RL3AO]

Haven't been following recon.

Where did the 42kt surface come from?

D. 42 kt

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 021657
XXAA 52178 99273 70915 08271 99004 28014 13010 00034 27811 14508
92724 22801 19504 85460 19245 12504 88999 77999
31313 09608 81638
61616 AF306 0213A CYCLONE OB 12
62626 SPL 2735N09152W 1640 MBL WND 15007 AEV 20802 DLM WND 16005
003843 WL150 14508 083 REL 2735N09152W 163838 SPG 2735N09152W 164
056 =
XXBB 52178 99273 70915 08271 00004 28014 11863 19804 22850 19245
33843 18658
21212 00004 13010 11910 18502 22856 14504 33843 10004
31313 09608 81638
61616 AF306 0213A CYCLONE OB 12
62626 SPL 2735N09152W 1640 MBL WND 15007 AEV 20802 DLM WND 16005
003843 WL150 14508 083 REL 2735N09152W 163838 SPG 2735N09152W 164
056 =
;