ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

add gfdl to the list..

not as much of a bend but still all models that i can think of right bend to the left..

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Aric, this trend to the west is pretty solid now no doubt about it. This is really going to be an interesting holiday weekend watching Katia.

[Stephanie]

*GROAN* Not again, Please!

[KWT]

oh and dont forget the ukmet either.. it has the strongest ridging

Standard for the UKMO, pretty sure that is one of the only models out there that has a left bias, most certainly have a right bias.

Bend back west has some really good agreement now, think its quite likely to happen to some extent, but its gotta stick way west for a long time to really be a big threat and much is going to depend solely on TD13.

In this pattern I'm watching for a DUE west bend, WNW will probably still be enough to gain enough latitude to recurve in what still looks like a weakly troughy pattern.

[Ptarmigan]

I think Katia could be a fish storm. Of course anything can change.

[Aric Dunn]

oh and dont forget the ukmet either.. it has the strongest ridging

Standard for the UKMO, pretty sure that is one of the only models out there that has a left bias, most certainly have a right bias.

Bend back west has some really good agreement now, think its quite likely to happen to some extent, but its gotta stick way west for a long time to really be a big threat and much is going to depend solely on TD13.

In this pattern I'm watching for a DUE west bend, WNW will probably still be enough to gain enough latitude to recurve in what still looks like a weakly troughy pattern.

well it mostly depends on that low off of NC. the ridge builds in after it lifts out. if it lifts out slower the trough will get here and she will already be farther north. if it lifts out in the next 36 to 48 hours like the models are hinting at then the ridging will build in and turn her west. it all really depends on that low. because without the west turn lee wont have any influence at all..

[meriland23]

hmm does anyone think the NHC will make drastic changes in the 11 pm update regarding the track or just noticeable changes?

Noticable but not drastic, still a lot of variety when it comes to the models, nhc tend to favor a middle.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Remains as a Tropical Storm.

AL, 12, 2011090200, , BEST, 0, 165N, 500W, 60, 990, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[painkillerr]

[quote="cycloneye"]00z Best Track

Remains as a Tropical Storm.


Hi Luis, how concerned should we be Katia at this point?

[meriland23]

Katia looks pathetic right now on the latest visible... so much for the big fish everyone was anticipating for.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is too soon to make a assumption like that. It was supposed to degrade some and then come back with vengence. And the fish scenario seems to be turning into a more unlikely event. This weakening is what is preventing the fish scenario and increasing the US risk. The slower it is to strengthen, the further west.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Remains as a Tropical Storm.


Hi Luis, how concerned should we be Katia at this point?

We should keep watching Katia just in case it surprises us with a west track continuing and makes an approach to the islands,but is almost certain that it will track to the north of the Leewards,VI and PR.

[Jevo]

Katia looks pathetic right now on the latest visible... so much for the big fish everyone was anticipating for.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah pathetic.........



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[Tireman4]

Are my eyes deceiving me or does the graphic showing Katia a hurricane?

[Steve H.]

Anyone have a link to the 18Z NOGAPS?

[WeatherGuesser]

Are my eyes deceiving me or does the graphic showing Katia a hurricane?

At the top of this page?

Admin has explained many times that changes to the graphic are delayed quite often. It will change eventually.

[Zarniwoop]

NoGaps has it running right into FL.

This site has a lot of interesting stuff.

(I am just relinking - someone did it earlier)

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... ic&set=All

[Tireman4]

Are my eyes deceiving me or does the graphic showing Katia a hurricane?

At the top of this page?

Admin has explained many times that changes to the graphic are delayed quite often. It will change eventually.

As I have just asked. Thanks for explaining. You did not need to put in "many times". I was just asking. Information to be passed on. Not to be snarky

[Steve H.]

Thanks Zarn!

[CrazyC83]

What are those cloud tops, like -90C? She's really trying, despite the shear!

[HurricaneWarning92]

Are people being sarcastic or what? I dont think it looks pathetic at all. Ive seen worse. Yeah, its struggling and most of the convection is to the right of the LLC but its not that bad...