ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[KWT]

GFS weakens it the whole till landfall...probably has it entraining too much dry air and getting sheared too much to strengthen

[SouthDadeFish]

Hi, been a lurker here for about 4 years now, first time posting...anyhow, what time is the recon scheduled to make it out to 90L?

Thanks for starting to post Recon is scheduled to arrive around 2pm EST.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_060l.gif

[KWT]

Pretty much fizzles out the system by that point, I think it maybe a little too easterly as well, I remember it put Alex in the same position around 48hrs before landfall...

[TexWx]

I'm with you, Corpus and southward.

[HurricaneBrain]

I think the first NHC track will be straight to the central Texas coast. The track will keep moving farther north if the more trusted models shift north. Right now it seems like the more reliable ones take this to the south-central coast.

[cycloneye]

A delay is occuring,but is not a long flight to where the system is.

[Frank2]

Looking great on loop. Definitely a depression right now.

I'd have to disagree - no change to the system ATTM - a weak circulation at best with very limited outflow...

Frank

[HurricaneBrain]

Hi, been a lurker here for about 4 years now, first time posting...anyhow, what time is the recon scheduled to make it out to 90L?

Welcome to Storm2k! I'm a new member myself. If you want to get the latest on recon click here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111254 But I'm pretty sure since you've been here for 4 years, you know the drill.

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 66h

[Dave]

A delay is occuring,but is not a long flight to where the system is.

Must be, no recco messages either....figure they'll start up as they approach the system.

[sphelps8681]

When will the new model runs come out?

Thanks

[Sanibel]

Probably won't see that much development as it tracks across the upwelling cold water pocket north of Yucatan.

[KWT]

No change to the system ATTM - a weak circulation at best with very limited outflow...

Not sure thats quite fair on this system, certainly the northern aprt is struggling due to the combo of shear and dry air getting entrained but I think the circulation is strong enough for an upgrade, whether or not its TD4 or Don is still the question that needs to be answered.

[ConvergenceZone]

No change to the system ATTM - a weak circulation at best with very limited outflow...

Frank

I still think it will develop into a decent tropical storm before landfall.
I know landfall is only in a couple of days, and the conditions in the gulf aren't ideal,
but I think it does have time to strengthen into a pretty good tropical storm by then,
in spite of what the models are saying.

[Wx_Warrior]

That's the newest GFS...New EURO @ 2p CST

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

that swirl at the tip of cube is that where a possible center relocation is happening????????

[lrak]

That's the newest GFS...New EURO @ 2p CST

hey Wx_Warrior thanks for the update.

[PTrackerLA]

Center looks to be on a solid NW motion. I expect the hurricane hunters to find a tropical storm this afternoon.

[hurricanejustin]

The center to me appears to be directly between the tip of Cuba and the tip of the Yucatan..would I be correct in that assessment?