ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Scorpion]

Heh thats a massive hurricane the NOGAPS shows

[ronjon]

18z NOGAPS has an Andrew type track - starting to get a little uneasy here on Katia. All the global models shifted west today with the 12z Euro taking Kat to the eastern Bahamas before turning it north. 18s GFS even further west than 12z run. A truly horrible scenario would be for this storm to reach CAT 4 status and make a beeline west across the Bahamas to FL. Let's hope the western trend ends soon.

[CrazyC83]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Shear is almost nothing once past 57W.

[Zarniwoop]

I get the sense that the NOGAPS model is sort of viewed like the MAC conference in football?

Technically, they're playing the same game but realistically, they're not even on the same planet.

Is that sort of how people feel on this forum?

[CrazyC83]

Is any Recon tasked? A Gulfstream flight sure would help.

[AdamFirst]

I get the sense that the NOGAPS model is sort of viewed like the MAC conference in football?

Technically, they're playing the same game but realistically, they're not even on the same planet.

Is that sort of how people feel on this forum?

That would be a fair comparison. The NHC regularly mentions the NOGAPS, however, so it's not to be completely discounted.

[ronjon]

I get the sense that the NOGAPS model is sort of viewed like the MAC conference in football?

Technically, they're playing the same game but realistically, they're not even on the same planet.

Is that sort of how people feel on this forum?

It's not specifically the NOGAPS but all the global models shifted west today. It's the trend my friend, not the individual model run.

[meriland23]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

Shear is almost nothing once past 57W.

Forgive my newbieness, but what does that indicate?

[Hurricaneman]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

Shear is almost nothing once past 57W.

Forgive my newbieness, but what does that indicate?

The storm can breathe and will intensify

[LeeNess87]

Those ensemble models keep on getting closer to the conus. Katia is getting way more west it seems. I can't help but still about the 15N and 50W precedence. Katia reached 15N before 50 W. I don't want to be relieved yet though...she keeps getting more and more west everyday.

[meriland23]

Don't know how much faith you guys put into GFDL, but here is the 18z model run for it.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

[otowntiger]

18z NOGAPS has an Andrew type track - starting to get a little uneasy here on Katia. All the global models shifted west today with the 12z Euro taking Kat to the eastern Bahamas before turning it north. 18s GFS even further west than 12z run. A truly horrible scenario would be for this storm to reach CAT 4 status and make a beeline west across the Bahamas to FL. Let's hope the western trend ends soon.

Horrible, yes. Likely? NO. There is nothing out there indicating this as a possibility (at this time).

[bamajammer4eva]

From Joe Bastardi

Katia trending west on models. Do not write this off! Lee should be named tomorrow and be 3rd impact storm of the season

back to the weather. pattern is reason Katia trends west. Typhoon hit in Japan supports big bermuda hi in week, blocks storm from going out Why? wpac weather forces changes in n hemisphere that "teleconnect"to western atlantic ridge, ohio valley trough

[ckiggins]

Many of those ensemble show an eventual path to MA, RI, ME, VT, etc. What day of the week would that be? Like 7 days from now?

[Blown Away]

I get the sense that the NOGAPS model is sort of viewed like the MAC conference in football?

Technically, they're playing the same game but realistically, they're not even on the same planet.

Is that sort of how people feel on this forum?

It's not specifically the NOGAPS but all the global models shifted west today. It's the trend my friend, not the individual model run.

Let's keep it in perspective, even with the west trending model runs, almost all the models still show recurve out to sea except for possibly Bermuda. The globals still show recurve at a comfortable distance from the CONUS.

[meriland23]

Model plot has shifted somewhat north?


http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[pgoss11]

[quote="ckiggins"]Many of those ensemble show an eventual path to MA, RI, ME, VT, etc. What day of the week would that be? Like 7 days from now?[/quote
Well hopefully that's wrong...they couldn't even handle a tropical storm right now.

[HurricaneWarning92]

From Joe Bastardi

back to the weather. pattern is reason Katia trends west. Typhoon hit in Japan supports big bermuda hi in week, blocks storm from going out Why? wpac weather forces changes in n hemisphere that "teleconnect"to western atlantic ridge, ohio valley trough

So basically he thinks Katia will make landfall somewhere in the East coast?

[mf_dolphin]

What's also strange is that the extrap shows NW where it should show the continuation of the present motion which at 5PM was West.

[NFLnut]

What's up with the UKMet? All day it's been trending toward Florida. Everything else is curving away. I thought it was supposed to be fairly accurate.