ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 021742
XXAA 52178 99273 70916 08271 99003 28832 19002 00027 28630 19503
92718 23622 20503 85456 20456 05001 88999 77999
31313 09608 81727
61616 AF306 0213A CYCLONE OB 16
62626 SPL 2729N09159W 1729 MBL WND 20003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 21503
002843 WL150 19503 084 REL 2729N09160W 172710 SPG 2729N09160W 172
919 =
XXBB 52178 99273 70916 08271 00003 28832 11905 22616 22865 21829
33850 20456 44843 19458
21212 00003 19002 11877 20005 22874 31002 33843 07002
31313 09608 81727
61616 AF306 0213A CYCLONE OB 16
62626 SPL 2729N09159W 1729 MBL WND 20003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 21503
002843 WL150 19503 084 REL 2729N09160W 172710 SPG 2729N09160W 172
919 =
;

[Stormcenter]

But not way SW like some were indicating late last night.

Center did reform southwest

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 16

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 17:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Tropical Depression: Number 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 16

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 2nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 27.3N 91.6W
Location: 203 miles (327 km) to the S (173°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
Marsden Square: 082 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (29.62 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.8°C (83.8°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 190° (from the S) 2 knots (2 mph)
1000mb 27m (89 ft) 28.6°C (83.5°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 195° (from the SSW) 3 knots (3 mph)
925mb 718m (2,356 ft) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 21.4°C (70.5°F) 205° (from the SSW) 3 knots (3 mph)
850mb 1,456m (4,777 ft) 20.4°C (68.7°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F) 50° (from the NE) 1 knots (1 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:27Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 27.29N 91.59W
Splash Time: 17:29Z

Release Location: 27.29N 91.6W View map)
Release Time: 17:27:10Z

Splash Location: 27.29N 91.6W (
Splash Time: 17:29:19Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 215° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1002mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1003mb (Surface) 28.8°C (83.8°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F)
905mb 22.6°C (72.7°F) 21.0°C (69.8°F)
865mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) 18.9°C (66.0°F)
850mb 20.4°C (68.7°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F)
843mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (Surface) 190° (from the S) 2 knots (2 mph)
877mb 200° (from the SSW) 5 knots (6 mph)
874mb 310° (from the NW) 2 knots (2 mph)
843mb 70° (from the ENE) 2 knots (2 mph)


---



[jabman98]

I would also watch the Gulf in September and October. I fear that this season is in the fifth inning of a nine inning game.

Someone was saying yesterday that then-13-now-Lee looked more like a June storm. I joked that maybe that meant the season was just getting started. Who knows.

[Dave]

502
URNT15 KNHC 021746
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 38 20110902
173500 2732N 09118W 8425 01542 0055 +180 +110 145007 008 018 000 00
173530 2732N 09116W 8425 01542 0057 +180 +110 151008 008 018 000 00
173600 2732N 09114W 8426 01542 0058 +179 +110 159009 011 019 000 00
173630 2732N 09114W 8426 01542 0057 +181 +111 154012 012 019 000 00
173700 2733N 09110W 8429 01539 0058 +180 +111 159011 011 020 000 00
173730 2733N 09108W 8427 01542 0058 +181 +111 158011 013 022 000 00
173800 2733N 09105W 8421 01547 0059 +179 +111 160014 014 024 000 00
173830 2734N 09103W 8429 01541 0056 +184 +111 161013 013 024 000 00
173900 2734N 09101W 8358 01611 0055 +178 +109 152014 014 022 000 00
173930 2735N 09059W 8046 01939 0056 +160 +104 153015 015 025 000 00
174000 2735N 09057W 7722 02283 0056 +136 +100 165015 016 027 002 00
174030 2736N 09055W 7422 02618 0061 +108 +094 174015 017 027 003 00
174100 2737N 09052W 7125 02966 0041 +110 +087 180014 015 026 000 00
174130 2738N 09050W 6974 03142 0041 +098 +083 185014 014 026 000 03
174200 2739N 09048W 6963 03155 0044 +094 +083 183012 013 028 000 03
174230 2739N 09045W 6961 03159 0046 +094 +081 179014 014 030 000 00
174300 2739N 09042W 6960 03158 0066 +073 //// 174013 014 032 002 01
174330 2739N 09040W 6964 03155 0080 +067 //// 183016 017 027 002 05
174400 2740N 09037W 6963 03155 0061 +083 +073 182017 018 029 000 00
174430 2741N 09035W 6965 03153 0058 +085 +073 180016 017 030 000 00
$$
;

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like it barfed out its LLC to the West and South....one jacked up broad low...

No LLC anymore? Does that mean this will be downgraded to a tropical wave?
or maybe I just misunderstood ya.

He said looks like. I believe he was talking about the appearance in structure and meant it in jest. Look at what it does on the west and southwest side.

Yea, it does look like one of the worst tropical storms I've ever seen...
No wonder they expect it to strengthen so slowly.

[gone2beach]

From WLOX

Governor declares State of Emergency for South Mississippi
Governor Haley Barbour declared a State of Emergency for the South Mississippi counties that will be impacted by severe tropical weather in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Wx_Warrior]

@ South Texas Storms

IMHO, I think this was our best chance at something tropical.

My gut feeling was - too good to be true with Lee. Anyone can get you excited with their posts, but it's the pros you have to account for. Not taking away anything that anyone posts, don't get me wrong, this is a great forum for weather.

Plus it doesn't hurt when your brother is a pro met.

[KWT]

Well we have Lee, I'm guessing some obs found high enough winds...

Rain is always likely to be the biggest concern with this system, looks very wet in E.LA and MS/AL.

[hurricanebuoy]

It is 90 degrees, overcast and windy. Feels like fall...LOL...man that's sad.

Houston are nary a cloud in the sky, a bit windy, and 95. The desert formation continues.

[Dave]

[Wx_Warrior]

From KFDM 6 (Beaumont TX) Chief Met Greg Bostwick:

Should move little into Saturday before turning toward the Louisiana coastline. Landfall likely south of Lafayette Sunday morning. Locally, just a few showers this weekend...rainfall totals likely to be less than 1 inch. Gusty winds to 30 mph out of the northeast.

[Dave]

AF 308 enroute to TD 13

Someone else pick this one please...I'll finish the one I'm on then I am going for a break & lunch! Thanks!

078
URNT15 KNHC 021752
AF308 WXWXA 110902171222308 HDOB 02 20110902
174300 1742N 06452W 9793 00292 0129 +249 +179 158006 007 /// /// 03
174330 1742N 06451W 9906 00195 0128 +260 +180 152006 007 /// /// 03
174400 1742N 06450W 0034 00074 0118 +270 +181 155006 006 /// /// 03
174430 1742N 06449W 0132 ///// 0119 +287 +183 174006 007 /// /// 23
174500 1742N 06448W 0014 00095 0122 +268 +186 144007 009 /// /// 03
174530 1742N 06446W 9808 00298 0141 +248 +187 154007 008 /// /// 03
174600 1742N 06444W 9499 00558 0132 +232 +187 171006 007 /// /// 03
174630 1742N 06443W 9142 00909 0141 +213 +186 169005 005 /// /// 03
174700 1742N 06441W 8798 01247 0147 +193 +183 182006 006 009 000 03
174730 1742N 06439W 8629 01415 0149 +180 +177 185006 007 006 000 03
174800 1743N 06438W 8496 01548 0148 +172 +171 175007 007 /// /// 03
174830 1745N 06438W 8370 01640 0091 +164 +163 163006 007 /// /// 03
174900 1746N 06439W 8207 01842 0145 +157 +156 157006 007 /// /// 03
174930 1746N 06441W 8131 01928 0153 +150 +150 139007 007 016 000 03
175000 1747N 06443W 8144 01918 0157 +151 +145 141007 008 003 001 00
175030 1748N 06445W 8134 01927 0158 +150 +139 141007 008 010 000 00
175100 1748N 06446W 8138 01921 0157 +151 +134 143007 008 006 000 03
175130 1749N 06448W 8143 01917 0158 +150 +130 152007 008 005 001 00
175200 1751N 06450W 8141 01919 0156 +153 +127 160007 008 003 001 00
175230 1752N 06451W 8137 01924 0159 +150 +124 166007 007 004 000 03
$$

[BigB0882]

No one seems to be model watching, just radar watching from here on out?

[southerngale]

From KFDM 6 (Beaumont TX) Chief Met Greg Bostwick:

Should move little into Saturday before turning toward the Louisiana coastline. Landfall likely south of Lafayette Sunday morning. Locally, just a few showers this weekend...rainfall totals likely to be less than 1 inch. Gusty winds to 30 mph out of the northeast.

Yeah... like a stake through the heart. For days, this was supposed to be drought-busting for Texas, then BAM! It's a multi-state rainpalooza with Texas left high and dry. Unreal.

On the bright side, I forgot what a mosquito bite felt like.

[jabman98]

Houston are nary a cloud in the sky, a bit windy, and 95. The desert formation continues.

I just drove to the downtown area from The Woodlands. There are a lot of white, puffy clouds in the sky, but it feels so much nicer than it has for the past several months. The temp is lower and it's dry with a ENE wind. Much more pleasant. Take what we can get, I guess.

[Dave]

675
URNT15 KNHC 021758
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 39 20110902
174500 2742N 09032W 6961 03160 0050 +090 +073 189017 018 029 000 00
174530 2743N 09030W 6959 03162 0051 +093 +073 184017 019 031 000 00
174600 2744N 09028W 6959 03164 0049 +093 +073 187017 017 032 000 00
174630 2745N 09025W 6962 03160 0049 +096 +072 190018 019 032 000 00
174700 2746N 09023W 6962 03160 0048 +096 +072 197017 018 033 000 00
174730 2747N 09020W 6959 03165 0052 +092 +071 195019 020 032 000 00
174800 2748N 09017W 6962 03158 0055 +091 +070 191020 022 032 000 00
174830 2748N 09015W 6973 03149 0057 +091 +070 186020 022 033 002 00
174900 2749N 09012W 6956 03173 0059 +091 +066 178022 025 034 000 00
174930 2749N 09010W 6961 03170 0076 +077 +064 164027 032 035 005 00
175000 2750N 09008W 6978 03143 0086 +071 +062 150032 035 035 007 00
175030 2751N 09006W 6972 03157 0089 +069 +060 138027 031 039 010 00
175100 2752N 09004W 6964 03162 0089 +068 +058 151029 036 044 014 00
175130 2752N 09002W 6987 03134 0100 +062 +057 135021 025 045 020 00
175200 2753N 09000W 6965 03160 0088 +071 +055 134015 017 040 010 00
175230 2754N 08958W 6974 03152 0077 +082 +053 128015 016 037 002 00
175300 2755N 08956W 6971 03157 0069 +089 +052 119014 016 036 005 00
175330 2756N 08955W 6970 03157 0075 +084 +052 127018 022 037 005 00
175400 2756N 08953W 6971 03156 0072 +087 +052 128023 024 037 004 00
175430 2757N 08951W 6967 03162 0072 +086 +051 128026 027 037 006 00
$$
;

[Dave]

Wide Area:





AF 306 - Mission Over

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 021802
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132011
A. 02/17:27:00Z
B. 27 deg 17 min N
091 deg 35 min W
C. 850 mb 1461 m
D. 16 kt
E. 170 deg 28 nm
F. 223 deg 15 kt
G. 170 deg 28 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 19 C / 1522 m
J. 20 C / 1525 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF306 0213A CYCLONE OB 15
MAX FL WIND 36 KT E QUAD 16:11:30Z
;

=======================

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Tropical Depression: Number 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:27:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°17'N 91°35'W (27.2833N 91.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 205 miles (329 km) to the S (172°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 16kts (~ 18.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the S (170°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 223° at 15kts (From the SW at ~ 17.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the S (170°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:11:30Z



NOW I'll take off.

[Wx_Warrior]

So true S Gale!! So true.

Hoping the best for friends in NOLA, Miss, & others.