ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

Riptide · #1781 Postby **Riptide** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:42 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:I certainly hope you guys in Texas that are so in need of rain, get some out of this system.

I know, right. That's the greatest benefit from this system even if it may ramp up to a hurricane.

#1782 Postby **HurricaneBrain** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:42 am

MBryant wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:I think the first NHC track will be straight to the central Texas coast. The track will keep moving farther north if the more trusted models shift north. Right now it seems like the more reliable ones take this to the south-central coast.

I have no idea where it will go eventually, but I have learned to be prepared just in case it decides to visit. Diesel in my truck is better than diesel in the station's tank. My concern this year is the higher than typical gulf water temps which could lead to late rapid intensification before landfall.

Does the warm water have any point of diminishing effect where the water get's too warm for rapid intensification? I wouldn't guess so, but I didn't consider the eye wall replacement effect before the last few years either.

Naah, the warmer the better. BTW, are you Matt Bryant the NFL kicker from Bridge City?

#1783 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:45 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Nice outflow boundaries on the eastern side; I am still not impressed.

That's due to the dry air intrusion from the north in the mid levels must likely as I mentioned earlier this morning. But stil has a tight closed circulation, IMO.

SunnyThoughts · #1784 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:46 am

I hope what ever is delaying the recon flight is short lived. Really curious as everyone else is to see what they find.

Sanibel · #1785 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:48 am

The whole top half of the convection seems to be displaced southward by synoptic shear.

KWT · #1786 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:48 am

Aric Dunn wrote:As the southern part of the Circ clears the yucatan we should see a more organized system. The westerly flow is probably slightly inhibited by the land somewhat even though is pretty flat.

True, butn then again there is a wedge of dry air to the W/WNW, so whilst it will benefit from that, it also get closer to the dry air to the west, therefore think on balance it'll tend to make little difference.

Hopefully we hear from recon soon...think even if recon isn't flying at the moment, the NHC will upgrade to TD4...though in truth it probably is already a minimal TS.

#1787 Postby **HurricaneBrain** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:49 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Nice outflow boundaries on the eastern side; I am still not impressed.

Would you be impressed if it had an eye wall right now? :lol:

Aric Dunn · #1788 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:50 am

KWT wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:As the southern part of the Circ clears the yucatan we should see a more organized system. The westerly flow is probably slightly inhibited by the land somewhat even though is pretty flat.

True, butn then again there is a wedge of dry air to the W/WNW, so whilst it will benefit from that, it also get closer to the dry air to the west, therefore think on balance it'll tend to make little difference.

Hopefully we hear from recon soon...think even if recon isn't flying at the moment, the NHC will upgrade to TD4...though in truth it probably is already a minimal TS.

yeah But without the inflow it will never have a chance. so it wont hurt it any.. lol

Snow Deprived365 · #1789 Postby **Snow Deprived365** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:51 am

Newbie here. What are the chances Houston could see some rain from this system if it makes landfall around Corpus as a Cat 1 or TS? Thanks! I love reading this forum when chances of snow or hurricanes come around. Keeps me busy at work!

TexWx · #1790 Postby **TexWx** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:53 am

Are there any live streaming tropical shows currently airing?

#1791 Postby **HurricaneBrain** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:53 am

Snow Deprived365 wrote:Newbie here. What are the chances Houston could see some rain from this system if it makes landfall around Corpus as a Cat 1 or TS? Thanks! I love reading this forum when chances of snow or hurricanes come around. Keeps me busy at work!

This is a small system, so probably not much. But if I were you I would keep a VERY close eye on this.

ajurcat · #1792 Postby **ajurcat** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:54 am

Riptide wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:I certainly hope you guys in Texas that are so in need of rain, get some out of this system.

I know, right. That's the greatest benefit from this system even if it may ramp up to a hurricane.

I've never wishcast a storm until now. This will bring beneficial rain where ever it hits.

#1793 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:55 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Nice outflow boundaries on the eastern side; I am still not impressed.

I wouldn't expect you to be...after all...you were calling for it to not be upgraded. ;-)

Give it time....I think you will be.

BTW ALL - We have a definite LLC...at least right above the surface. I am tracking low level CU moving east and ENE over the eastern tip of the Yucatan. It's barely visible through the cirrus canopy...but its getting sucked towawrds the LLC...which I assume is right under that convective burst on the NE tip of the Yucatan.

Add to that MMUN and MMCZ both are reporting calm winds. They should ahve some sort of SE or ESE winds this time of day.

ROCK · #1794 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:56 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Nice outflow boundaries on the eastern side; I am still not impressed.

when are you ever impressed? :roll:

#1795 Postby **BigB0882** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 11:58 am

Can anyone tell me when this would be nearing the coastline IF it makes landfall between Galveston and MS? I ask because on Thursday afternoon I am driving from Baton Rouge to Crockett, TX. I really don't want to be driving in a tropical storm or hurricane if it comes anywhere between those two places, I usually drive to Beaumont and then up to Crockett. The storm is relatively small so hopefully if it can wait until Friday sometime then I will have enough of a head start before any rain heads in.

#1796 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:00 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Can anyone tell me when this would be nearing the coastline IF it makes landfall between Galveston and MS? I ask because on Thursday afternoon I am driving from Baton Rouge to Crockett, TX. I really don't want to be driving in a tropical storm or hurricane if it comes anywhere between those two places, I usually drive to Beaumont and then up to Crockett. The storm is relatively small so hopefully if it can wait until Friday sometime then I will have enough of a head start before any rain heads in.

Current suggestion is landfall late Friday into early Saturday.

SunnyThoughts · #1797 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:02 pm

Still no info on whats going on with recon?

#1798 Postby **Dave** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:04 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Still no info on whats going on with recon?

Not sure Sunny, nothing in yet on any links.

#1799 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:05 pm

Who wants an Impact weather update? Here ya go!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NJxLrIv ... dded#at=11

ROCK · #1800 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:07 pm

NW to WNW movement from what I am seeing of the LLC....this is TD4 regardless of RECON, IMO. Now is it Don that is the question.

what cold pocket? :lol:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

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