ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[HurricaneBrain]

Longest 100% c.o.d. area yet!

[Aric Dunn]

more david for sure !

[Ivanhater]

Models will have no choice but to continue to shift west the longer it takes to develop. What is also interesting, models are now coming in lifting the trough out faster. This is why it is important not to make blanket statements about where it is going, even if it is the most likely scenario at that time.

[vbhoutex]

this is even better than wobble watching

LOL!! Most definitely!!

[KWT]

yeah but all the way up to 84 hours it kept building west... wonder if it thinks it could stay south of hispanola like yesterdays.. nogaps and gfdl ...

Motion of NW on this run between 60-84hrs so nope it'll strike land on this run rather than scoot under, what it may mean is it keeps the WNW/NW motion for longer then other models have been expected...

2nd weak upper trough about to move through, looks tilted in such a way that the Atlantic ridge will expand.

[vbhoutex]

Models will have no choice but to continue to shift west the longer it takes to develop. What is also interesting, models are now coming in lifting the trough out faster. This is why it is important not to make blanket statements about where it is going, even if it is the most likely scenario at that time.

Give this man the door prize!!

[Aric Dunn]

this is even better than wobble watching

LOL!! Most definitely!!

for sure ! formation is all I do. once its a hurricane I only check on it periodically while its out doing its thing in the middle of no where..

[KWT]

So will the NHC still get to see the data once the hurricane hunters come back, I guess they've got a log of it onboard so they can get a good idea of whats going on.

If we see a change in percentages we'll know why!

[HurricaneWarning92]

there is definitely a swirl on the eastern one. It looks more like a tropical cyclone. the western one just looks messy.

[Aric Dunn]

there is definitely a swirl on the eastern one. It looks more like a tropical cyclone. the western one just looks messy.

its all in the mid levels .

[johngaltfla]

Is this the result of budget cutbacks and the country going into default? I knew the situation was bad but this is ridiculous!

SFT

Yes. We don't use carry spare vacuum tubes thanks to the budget problems.

In all seriousness, this looks very much like a situation that due to the split we're going to see either a gulf storm or Yucatan Express. Either way it does appear that past the islands this sucker will blow up fast. Too bad the plane had issues, I'd be curious to see the pressure readings in the Western blob.

[HurricaneBelle]

FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN

I find it amusing it took two forecasters to write this special TWO. It's like the NHC assigned one to each blob.

[northtxboy]

Models will have no choice but to continue to shift west the longer it takes to develop. What is also interesting, models are now coming in lifting the trough out faster. This is why it is important not to make blanket statements about where it is going, even if it is the most likely scenario at that time.

I agree 100%

['CaneFreak]

This is by far the best post of the day

Models will have no choice but to continue to shift west the longer it takes to develop. What is also interesting, models are now coming in lifting the trough out faster. This is why it is important not to make blanket statements about where it is going, even if it is the most likely scenario at that time.

[KWT]

there is definitely a swirl on the eastern one. It looks more like a tropical cyclone. the western one just looks messy.

its all in the mid levels .

Yep, so many times have I seen strong MLC fool people, including myself...I remember Dolly had an unreal MLC, I mean it looked like a 60kt TS...but there was nothing underneath it at all.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Models will have no choice but to continue to shift west the longer it takes to develop. What is also interesting, models are now coming in lifting the trough out faster. This is why it is important not to make blanket statements about where it is going, even if it is the most likely scenario at that time.

Exactly as I've and a few others have been saying. Thank you for making that clear to everybody. I know there's one or two people posting on the forums lately that have been making statements that act as if they're 100% fact, but I won't name names.

[Aric Dunn]

This is by far the best post of the day

Models will have no choice but to continue to shift west the longer it takes to develop. What is also interesting, models are now coming in lifting the trough out faster. This is why it is important not to make blanket statements about where it is going, even if it is the most likely scenario at that time.

I think its going to go perpendicular .... lol

[artist]

So will the NHC still get to see the data once the hurricane hunters come back, I guess they've got a log of it onboard so they can get a good idea of whats going on.

If we see a change in percentages we'll know why!

yeah, I feel fairly certain that they should.

[KWT]

Models will have no choice but to continue to shift west the longer it takes to develop. What is also interesting, models are now coming in lifting the trough out faster. This is why it is important not to make blanket statements about where it is going, even if it is the most likely scenario at that time.

Yep indeed, I think the models are probably being overzealous with the weakness at 168hrs as well.

18z GFS will be starting soon, lets see where the system goes on that run.

[jinftl]

For reference, this was the track of David - this is not a forecast for 91L....just a reference to what one possible scenario could be as of this time....by tomorrow, this could be a different story. But it does help to put a visual to all of the dialogue, no?

Again, not a forecast. A possible scenario - in terms of motion, not exact track. Such a track for 91L 200 miles east or west of David's track would be quite a different event.

more david for sure !