ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Will be interesting today to see if the models shift west again or if they stay the same

If they shift they're moving east.

[Aric Dunn]

well recon still finding lots of 50kt FL winds.. but sfmr seems a little low. still probably 50mph.. but I have not seen any surface reports from the NE islands.. barbuda which is in the middle of the strong winds according recon has not updated since 6am ..

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

So is more north than this with what Aric and RL3AO posted?

AL, 09, 2011082112, , BEST, 0, 168N, 624W, 45, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[RL3AO]

I'll admit I'm usually one to roll my eyes at the wobble watchers, but this could be a very important jump north. Radar showed the center just jumped 45 miles NNW.

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

Second pass comming shortly.

[RL3AO]

12z Best Track

So is more north than this with what Aric and RL3AO posted?

AL, 09, 2011082112, , BEST, 0, 168N, 624W, 45, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

Radar shows it at about 17.3. Lets see what recon says.

[bella_may]

Will be interesting today to see if the models shift west again or if they stay the same

If they shift they're moving east.

No I don't think so.the center has already initialized north which is what caused the east shift in the models.once this starts to go w or wnw again the models might start to shift west again

[Lowpressure]

I'll admit I'm usually one to roll my eyes at the wobble watchers, but this could be a very important jump north. Radar showed the center just jumped 45 miles NNW.

I was thinking the same thing. The northward shift has huge implications, not only track but intensity. Missing the mountain chain is obvioulsy a big difference. This has the potential to be big news soon. See how all this settles out and recon data is ingested.

[RL3AO]

015
URNT15 KNHC 211344
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 21 20110821
133430 1752N 06149W 8428 01569 //// +138 //// 124046 053 042 012 05
133500 1751N 06150W 8440 01559 //// +136 //// 121036 044 045 018 01
133530 1749N 06151W 8418 01584 //// +134 //// 112043 044 043 015 05
133600 1748N 06153W 8424 01574 //// +136 //// 112047 050 039 016 01
133630 1747N 06154W 8426 01570 //// +135 //// 118041 042 039 009 01
133700 1746N 06155W 8430 01568 //// +133 //// 115043 044 040 012 01
133730 1744N 06156W 8430 01567 //// +139 //// 124042 046 041 012 01
133800 1743N 06158W 8431 01564 //// +138 //// 122042 043 039 012 01
133830 1742N 06159W 8436 01561 //// +152 //// 122046 047 036 008 01
133900 1741N 06200W 8427 01570 //// +156 //// 121047 047 037 005 01
133930 1740N 06201W 8430 01565 //// +149 //// 121048 048 036 008 01
134000 1739N 06203W 8429 01564 //// +141 //// 120047 048 039 008 01
134030 1737N 06204W 8425 01567 //// +141 //// 121046 049 040 009 01
134100 1736N 06205W 8438 01554 //// +137 //// 120047 048 038 011 01
134130 1735N 06207W 8430 01563 //// +132 //// 118045 046 041 010 05
134200 1734N 06208W 8429 01562 //// +126 //// 117043 044 041 013 01
134230 1732N 06209W 8434 01556 //// +133 //// 129045 047 041 009 01
134300 1731N 06210W 8419 01569 //// +149 //// 132042 044 039 009 01
134330 1730N 06212W 8433 01552 //// +147 //// 134044 044 040 006 01
134400 1729N 06213W 8434 01550 //// +157 //// 139045 045 040 004 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

12z Best Track

So is more north than this with what Aric and RL3AO posted?

AL, 09, 2011082112, , BEST, 0, 168N, 624W, 45, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

Radar shows it at about 17.3. Lets see what recon says.

yeah up past 17N for sure.

[3090]

In my opinion, Irene is going to pass decently south of PR, looking at the current flow pattern around her. I think the EGOM/west coast of Florida will be in play, more then right up the middle of the State. JMO.

This is not an official forecast. It is simply a non-professional opinion.

[HurricaneWarning92]

hmm isnt today the day that conditions should improve thus allowing her to intensify?

[tolakram]

[Kory]

I think Irene will scrape the south coast of Puerto Rico. It was definitely the center relocation that pushed it more north.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Emmett_Brown]

Regarding the northward jumps, it is fairly common for storms that are just closing off their circulations to jump north into the convection, which causes W moving systems to stair-step to the NW as they wrap and strengthen. If memory serves, after the consolidation of the core, we might see more pronounced W movement, and maybe even a W/SW wobble or 2. Again, this is just from memory of past systems.

[Aric Dunn]

It appears to be right about on top of St kits.

[bella_may]

Regarding the northward jumps, it is fairly common for storms that are just closing off their circulations to jump north into the convection, which causes W moving systems to stair-step to the NW as they wrap and strengthen. If memory serves, after the consolidation of the core, we might see more pronounced W movement, and maybe even a W/SW wobble or 2. Again, this is just from memory of past systems.

Someone said the same thing earlier. I think it was tbcanefreak who said it

[HurricaneWarning92]

And i think shes gonna pass over PR and just clip the northern side of DR.

Nvm.. it may even scrape the northern side of PR.

[RL3AO]

It appears to be right about on top of St kits.

Not good for PR and probably not good for the US (and Bahamas).