ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

A 200mb PV anomaly on the NW quad of Lee appears to have been holding him back and keeping an anti-cyclone from developing overhead.

Looking at the CIMSS analysis for the last 6 hrs; that anomaly seems to be dissipating.

[djmikey]

Oh Im watching!

[GCANE]

Can see the NW slot getting filled on WV.

May flare tonight when UL temps drop.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Portastorm]

12z Euro is a little bit west compared to itz 0z run concerning landfall in Louisiana.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Im at work in Bourg. It's raining pretty hard. I will keep you update as long as can.

[BigB0882]

If you see anything interesting, please share! I know we are in the "now" but with this stalling for so long I think the models still are important. This isn't a usual situation where the storm will be gone by this time tomorrow so a lot can still change.

Thanks for posting the 12z! Should mean more wind and rain for my area than some of the more easterly models are showing.

[craptacular]

AF 308 enroute to TD 13

Someone else pick this one please...I'll finish the one I'm on then I am going for a break & lunch! Thanks!

078
URNT15 KNHC 021752
AF308 WXWXA 110902171222308 HDOB 02 20110902
174300 1742N 06452W 9793 00292 0129 +249 +179 158006 007 /// /// 03

Isn't that the code (WXWXA) for a training flight?

[PTrackerLA]

Slightly OT but is this for real? After a few days of tropical storm conditions we're gonna see lows in the low 50s?!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1

[Portastorm]

For you in Baton Rouge and should it verify ... definitely.

Whereas the 0z Euro took it northeast into NOLA, the 12z run looks to move it north, maybe even a smidgeon west of north into an area midway between Lake Charles and NOLA.

That is just through 48 hours. Makes landfall at 1000mb.

[BigB0882]

Highs in the LOW 70s? WHAT!?

Baton Rouge shows nothing like that so maybe it is a glitch?

[Jagno]

5's/70ish, now that is gumbo weather my Cajun friends. My weather forcast is almost the same so it's no glitch.

[PTrackerLA]

It's even in the zone forecasts too, very strange but I'll take it and run!

[Portastorm]

Weird ... at 72 hours, the 12z Euro deepens Lee to 996 mb and moves him about 50-75 east towards NOLA.



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[BigB0882]

NHC also shows a sudden East movement after landfall and then after that a more NE movement up and away. Seems odd but I am sure they have their reasons.

[Wayne]

My local says 83 high 71 low for Tuesday?

How bad is this going to be in La? they telling people to pre-apply for disaster food stamps (are they going over the top?)

[EasyTiger]

Highs in the LOW 70s? WHAT!?

Baton Rouge shows nothing like that so maybe it is a glitch?

And that is why I am skeptical of this front. Highs in the low 70s in early September....

[JSDS]

My local says 83 high 71 low for Tuesday?

How bad is this going to be in La? they telling people to pre-apply for disaster food stamps (are they going over the top?)

They always tell people to pre-apply for disaster food stamps - I think it's just to speed things up if they are needed.

[PTrackerLA]

They're actually using the 12z GFS output:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/search/getwe ... ocid=54986

That's gotta be near record low temperatures. We normally don't see a cold front that strong until a month from now.

[Dave]

AF 308 enroute to TD 13

Someone else pick this one please...I'll finish the one I'm on then I am going for a break & lunch! Thanks!

078
URNT15 KNHC 021752
AF308 WXWXA 110902171222308 HDOB 02 20110902
174300 1742N 06452W 9793 00292 0129 +249 +179 158006 007 /// /// 03

Isn't that the code (WXWXA) for a training flight?

Sure looks like it...showing AF308 as a Non Tasked Mission now.

[jasons2k]

wow, a half hour since the last post. Is all my fellow Texans already at the bar, drinking themselves silly to drown out our drought sorrow? If so, where you guys at, I am on my way!

I gave-up this morning when I saw the latest models and they made me puke. Getting the pool, sunscreen and food ready for this weekend.