ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

I wonder if the convection further decreases overnight if the NHC will deactivate the Invest like they did with Invest 93L? it's possible, as I remember how 93L fell apart and then they de-activated it before it later got its act together again in the Carib...

Because there is so much SAL/Dry Air, I do think there's a possibility of the Invest being de-activated, if the Dry air really starts to dominate it over the next 24 hours....

[KWT]

The big reason why I think they won't CZ is this has big model support...93L never really had all that much support and most of the time it was weak as well...

[Ptarmigan]

93L may not have much thunderstorms, but don't let that fool anyone. It has a vortex, which is a factor in tropical development. Some major hurricanes came from tropical waves that were unimpressive.

[Ivanhater]

Coming west

[Hurricaneman]

93L may not have much thunderstorms, but don't let that fool anyone. It has a vortex, which is a factor in tropical development. Some major hurricanes came from tropical waves that were unimpressive.

I put out examples

Andrew
Katrina
Fran

Mike is right, its wrong to give up on development just because it currently looks like garbage, its just in a stable enviornment right now, when it hits moisture, this might explode

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 136N, 414W, 25, 1008, DB

[Nimbus]

I'm guessing the convection will start firing near 50W. The mid level circulation should still be centered around 14N. The GFS solution just north of the islands looks the most likely to me if it spins up east of the islands.

[ConvergenceZone]

This may or may not mean anything, but if you look at that Satellite pic that IvanHater just posted , you can see convection(reds) starting to pop on that last 2 frames or so...

[otowntiger]

This may or may not mean anything, but if you look at that Satellite pic that IvanHater just posted , you can see convection(reds) starting to pop on that last 2 frames or so...

hmmm seems to be on the wane to me.

[TwisterFanatic]

This may or may not mean anything, but if you look at that Satellite pic that IvanHater just posted , you can see convection(reds) starting to pop on that last 2 frames or so...

hmmm seems to be on the wane to me.

You can clearly see some re-firing going on in the past 3-4 frames.

[cycloneye]

This may or may not mean anything, but if you look at that Satellite pic that IvanHater just posted , you can see convection(reds) starting to pop on that last 2 frames or so...

hmmm seems to be on the wane to me.

You can clearly see some re-firing going on in the past 3-4 frames.

After 50W watch how it feels more favorable condtions.

[TwisterFanatic]

Yep, 93L did the same thing, it just couldn't get an LLC.

[Hurricaneman]

I think it may be on the edge of the more favorable conditions, but we have to wait til the center hits that area

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

This may or may not mean anything, but if you look at that Satellite pic that IvanHater just posted , you can see convection(reds) starting to pop on that last 2 frames or so...

hmmm seems to be on the wane to me.

Well, nobody know how it's going to be have in a couple of days. The models may all be well off base and not handling the dry air well and 97L might completely poof into nothing, or it might somehow hold together until it gets into more favorable territory......The outcome is really up in the air right now.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Convection has been increasing in the past few hours.

[cycloneye]

Discussion by San Juan NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST THU AUG 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NE OF PR/USVI EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT APPROACHES THE NE CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION WILL KEEP AIR MASS UNSTABLE THROUGH TOMORROW. THINGS
DRY OUT SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC.

MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR TC
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE WEEKEND. MODELS BECOMING MORE CLUSTERED IN
TRACK OF H85 VORT CENTER AND SFC LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ALSO SPED UP
ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING INTO THE
USVI BY DAYBREAK SUN AND INTO ERN PR BY MIDDAY SUN. RAIN NOW
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MON EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO
INTENSITY...NHC/HPC 1PM COORDINATION TODAY SHOWED TROPICAL WAVE
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS BY 12Z MON AND LATEST GLOBAL
MODELS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING MORE THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS
WAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF PR SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE WAVE CROSSES
50 WEST IT WILL ENTER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC CONTENT AND MORE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY...THIS SYSTEM POSES A MODERATE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
ASSUMING ENOUGH CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ALL INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI
ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like thunderstorm activity is beginning to pick up...Here is the rainbow colored infrared loop link.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Yeah and its about to hit the 50 mark.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looking rather pathetic again tonight, like most systems so far this season throughout 90% of their life cycle, oh well there is always tomorrow.

[Adoquín]

93L may not have much thunderstorms, but don't let that fool anyone. It has a vortex, which is a factor in tropical development. Some major hurricanes came from tropical waves that were unimpressive.

I put out examples

Andrew
Katrina
Fran

Mike is right, its wrong to give up on development just because it currently looks like garbage, its just in a stable enviornment right now, when it hits moisture, this might explode

I will add Hortense at it approached Puerto Rico. From wave to Cat 1 in about 36 hours. And Marilyn which blew the hell out of St. Thomas after having been this little thing just to our southeast. Main thing: it has a vortex, and quite vigorous a spin. You cannot miss the it even at noght. Once this vortex mixes with humid air and hot seawater fuerther west, something earlier
invests did not have, kaboom can happen. And kaboom has happened in this region before.