ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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JtSmarts
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1821 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:20 pm

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I'm really thinking this could be a very similar situation to Claudette 2003 in terms of strength, track and possibly size. Another good analog may be 2008's Dolly but a bit further north. Both were strong Cat 1 landfalls that struggled at first but really got better organized just prior to landfall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Claudette_(2003)
Last edited by JtSmarts on Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1822 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:21 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:I've heard rumors that they took off but returned back to base. Not sure why, maybe because of center over land. Just a rumor.



Yeah I just heard ( or read) the same thing on another board. Took off, returned to base then took off again about 20 minutes ago. Not sure how accurate it is, but maybe they are on their way.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1823 Postby hurricanejustin » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:21 pm

Thanks AFM, you're the best 8-)
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Re:

#1824 Postby HurricaneBrain » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:21 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:We will probably have a Tropical Depression at 5PM based on the image below.

Image

I think we have a tropical depression now. Just a matter on when NHC is wants to upgrade. :wink:
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#1825 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:21 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Recon Discussion

#1826 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:
tolakram wrote:There's an outside chance the LLC is over land at the moment. No idea if they would delay recon for that. Looking at the low level inflow makes it appear the LLC is very very close to the tip of the Yuk.


That is a good point.


Based on Cancun radar loop it shows that LLC could still be offshore.
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#1827 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:22 pm

Very interesting but recon should still be able to have a good look at the whole of the north and east quadrant so not sure if its because its too close to land...besides I think its just offshore at the moment...

Either way sure its not going to make a difference to the NHC, think an upgrade is coming in the next couple of hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Recon Discussion

#1828 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:23 pm

Hopefully,the 2 PM TWO give us information.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1829 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:23 pm

tolakram wrote:20 frame loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Anyone not thinking this is going to develop and pointing out outflow boundaries miles from the center needs to observe this loop. *cough* :) The engine started yesterday evening and has been running ever since, it's just a matter of time and strength.


Cirrus outflow expanding to the SW with convection continuing to expand over the center.
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Re: Re:

#1830 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:24 pm

Portastorm wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Can anyone tell me when this would be nearing the coastline IF it makes landfall between Galveston and MS? I ask because on Thursday afternoon I am driving from Baton Rouge to Crockett, TX. I really don't want to be driving in a tropical storm or hurricane if it comes anywhere between those two places, I usually drive to Beaumont and then up to Crockett. The storm is relatively small so hopefully if it can wait until Friday sometime then I will have enough of a head start before any rain heads in.


Current suggestion is landfall late Friday into early Saturday.


Thank you. Late Friday at the earliest would allow me enough time to get ahead of it. I hope it doesn't pick up in forward speed any more than anticipated.
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#1831 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:24 pm

The media has mentioned very little about 90L. Let's hope this system doesn't rapidly intensify (unlikely at this point, but who knows?), or there will be a lot of trouble in Texas. This system is already entering into the Gulf, and has until Friday night/Saturday morning until landfall. If it were to strengthen into a considerably strong hurricane, there wouldn't be a lot of time to evacuate. Thankfully, wind shear and dry air should for the most part keep this system in check.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1832 Postby hriverajr » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:24 pm

ROCK wrote:I dont hold the GFS in high regard right now as all of you know....something is wrong with it, IMO....

that said here is the latest 0Z NOGAPS....purely for entertainment purposes...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


Hehe.. I like that merge over Central America...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1833 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:25 pm

JtSmarts wrote:
I'm really thinking this could be a very similar situation to Claudette 2003 in terms of strength, track and possibly size. Another good analog may be 2008's Dolly but a bit further north. Both were strong Cat 1 landfalls that struggled at first but really got better organized just prior to landfall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Claudette_(2003)


Yep thats another interesting comprasion to make, that system took on last minute strengthening and became a hurricane for the second time close to landfall.

Its certainly on its way though, expecting a TS very soon indeed!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1834 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:26 pm

I know how serious the heat wave is but quite frankly, I'm a bit surprised by how many people have actually expressed a desire to see whatever 90L becomes just outside their doorstep. A problem is not going to be solved by another problem.

For example, just think about the increased likelihood of flash floods in all the really dry areas what with the amount of rain even a TS can dump and the ground being almost clay like and not very absorbent. Not a very pretty scenario.

I'm not trying to offend anyone but it's a severe case of careful what you wish for IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1835 Postby gboudx » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:30 pm

apocalypt-flyer wrote:I know how serious the heat wave is but quite frankly, I'm a bit surprised by how many people have actually expressed a desire to see whatever 90L becomes just outside their doorstep. A problem is not going to be solved by another problem.

For example, just think about the increased likelihood of flash floods in all the really dry areas what with the amount of rain even a TS can dump and the ground being almost clay like and not very absorbent. Not a very pretty scenario.

I'm not trying to offend anyone but it's a severe case of careful what you wish for IMO.


If this was a potential Cat 3+ bearing down on the TX coast, I would agree with you. But with many reservoirs in Central TX almost bone dry, this minimal storm could be a real blessing. Livestock and trees are dying due to this exceptional drought. I'm sure the local authorities will warn people to flash flooding.
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#1836 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:30 pm

I could drive down to Keesler and ask them what's up if you guys want me to! :lol:
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Re:

#1837 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:30 pm

MississippiWx wrote:I could drive down to Keesler and ask them what's up if you guys want me to! :lol:


Umm please? haha :wink:
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Re:

#1838 Postby poof121 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:31 pm

MississippiWx wrote:I could drive down to Keesler and ask them what's up if you guys want me to! :lol:


I'm closer than you if that's what we need to do... :)
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Re:

#1839 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:31 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:The media has mentioned very little about 90L. Let's hope this system doesn't rapidly intensify (unlikely at this point, but who knows?), or there will be a lot of trouble in Texas. This system is already entering into the Gulf, and has until Friday night/Saturday morning until landfall. If it were to strengthen into a considerably strong hurricane, there wouldn't be a lot of time to evacuate. Thankfully, wind shear and dry air should for the most part keep this system in check.

Maybe a little dry air will help to slow this from strengthening quickly, but shear doesnt appear to be much of a problem. At least as of a few hours ago when I last checked, SHIPS didnt seem to be forecasting too much shear in the path of this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1840 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:31 pm

gboudx wrote:
apocalypt-flyer wrote:I know how serious the heat wave is but quite frankly, I'm a bit surprised by how many people have actually expressed a desire to see whatever 90L becomes just outside their doorstep. A problem is not going to be solved by another problem.

For example, just think about the increased likelihood of flash floods in all the really dry areas what with the amount of rain even a TS can dump and the ground being almost clay like and not very absorbent. Not a very pretty scenario.

I'm not trying to offend anyone but it's a severe case of careful what you wish for IMO.


If this was a potential Cat 3+ bearing down on the TX coast, I would agree with you. But with many reservoirs in Central TX almost bone dry, this minimal storm could be a real blessing. Livestock and trees are dying due to this exceptional drought. I'm sure the local authorities will warn people to flash flooding.


Fingers crossed it will pan out as you said.
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