ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

For those just checking in, do not confuse center relocations with forward motion. The storm hasn't suddenly started moving to the NW or NNW. It is still generally heading to the west or wnw. Center reformations have occurred that make it appear that the storm is moving more northerly over the last 8 hours than it really has been if you are simply plotting the center points.

The steering flow remains the same.

[Lane]

Aric, can you post a link to the radar?

[cycloneye]

Aric, can you post at link to the radar?

[RL3AO]

323
URNT15 KNHC 211404
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 23 20110821
135430 1704N 06233W 8434 01535 //// +161 //// 186015 017 016 004 05
135500 1703N 06234W 8428 01541 //// +161 //// 178012 013 017 001 01
135530 1702N 06236W 8430 01540 //// +160 //// 174010 011 014 000 01
135600 1702N 06237W 8429 01541 //// +159 //// 161010 011 017 001 05
135630 1701N 06239W 8429 01542 //// +140 //// 164007 009 017 002 05
135700 1701N 06241W 8430 01540 //// +144 //// 144004 007 016 001 05
135730 1700N 06242W 8429 01542 //// +154 //// 145005 006 014 002 05
135800 1659N 06244W 8429 01541 //// +160 //// 138004 005 015 002 01
135830 1658N 06245W 8430 01541 //// +160 //// 126004 004 017 001 01
135900 1657N 06246W 8429 01541 //// +158 //// 105004 005 023 003 01
135930 1656N 06247W 8430 01541 //// +144 //// 054003 003 022 004 01
140000 1655N 06249W 8432 01539 //// +152 //// 066002 003 025 007 01
140030 1653N 06250W 8420 01551 //// +159 //// 040006 007 028 006 01
140100 1652N 06251W 8429 01540 //// +164 //// 049004 005 023 001 01
140130 1651N 06252W 8429 01541 //// +165 //// 033004 005 018 001 01
140200 1650N 06254W 8432 01537 //// +165 //// 007003 004 020 000 01
140230 1649N 06255W 8430 01541 //// +165 //// 352005 006 019 001 01
140300 1647N 06256W 8432 01541 //// +165 //// 348005 006 016 002 01
140330 1646N 06257W 8429 01546 //// +165 //// 336006 007 013 001 01
140400 1645N 06258W 8429 01547 //// +165 //// 326008 008 012 001 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, can you post at link to the radar?

[img]http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/JUA_loop.gif[/im]

I have a program I Use.

[Lane]

Thank you cycloneye and Aric.

[RL3AO]

039
UZNT13 KNHC 211403
XXAA 71148 99173 70624 04372 99006 25409 14538 00056 25008 14540
92738 20605 14549 85468 16432 15546 88999 77999
31313 09608 81348
61616 AF300 0209A IRENE OB 07
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1735N06239W 1350 MBL WND 14543 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 14546 006843 WL150 14540 084 REL 1732N06238W 134822 SPG 1734N0
6239W 135020 =
XXBB 71148 99173 70624 04372 00006 25409 11874 18206 22850 16432
33843 15243
21212 00006 14538 11990 14540 22983 14036 33975 14044 44963 14547
55906 14550 66857 15547 77843 15545
31313 09608 81348
61616 AF300 0209A IRENE OB 07
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1735N06239W 1350 MBL WND 14543 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 14546 006843 WL150 14540 084 REL 1732N06238W 134822 SPG 1734N0
6239W 135020 =
;

[NDG]

Looks like Irene is back on a 285 deg heading.

[Vortex]

Aric,it looks more and more that PR will get a direct hit if this trend continues. Keep the updates comming of where the center is as is crucial at this time not only for PR but downstream.

Luis,

look forward to your updates tonight as Irene appraches...

[RL3AO]

Probably can't get a center drop because its over land, but a max windband dropped showed winds of 38kts and 1006 mb which shows the pressure has dropped at least 3mb.



039
UZNT13 KNHC 211403
XXAA 71148 99173 70624 04372 99006 25409 14538 00056 25008 14540
92738 20605 14549 85468 16432 15546 88999 77999
31313 09608 81348
61616 AF300 0209A IRENE OB 07
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1735N06239W 1350 MBL WND 14543 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 14546 006843 WL150 14540 084 REL 1732N06238W 134822 SPG 1734N0
6239W 135020 =
XXBB 71148 99173 70624 04372 00006 25409 11874 18206 22850 16432
33843 15243
21212 00006 14538 11990 14540 22983 14036 33975 14044 44963 14547
55906 14550 66857 15547 77843 15545
31313 09608 81348
61616 AF300 0209A IRENE OB 07
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1735N06239W 1350 MBL WND 14543 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 14546 006843 WL150 14540 084 REL 1732N06238W 134822 SPG 1734N0
6239W 135020 =
;

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

Second weaker center SW of St. Kitts.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Looks like Irene is back on a 285 deg heading.

She never stopped that motion. Her center relocations just made it seem like she had moved more northerly. She is still in the same steering pattern with the same expected motion. Though of course there is gained latitude from here forward which means more down the road.

[RL3AO]

948
URNT15 KNHC 211414
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 24 20110821
140430 1644N 06300W 8431 01546 //// +164 //// 330009 009 015 001 01
140500 1643N 06301W 8430 01547 //// +164 //// 332012 014 017 002 01
140530 1641N 06302W 8429 01548 //// +164 //// 342017 019 017 001 01
140600 1640N 06303W 8433 01545 //// +170 //// 345021 022 020 002 01
140630 1639N 06305W 8429 01548 //// +166 //// 351022 024 025 005 01
140700 1638N 06306W 8433 01547 //// +162 //// 352023 024 020 002 01
140730 1636N 06307W 8429 01553 //// +164 //// 354022 022 020 001 01
140800 1635N 06308W 8427 01556 //// +162 //// 353022 023 023 003 01
140830 1634N 06310W 8436 01548 //// +151 //// 357020 021 032 010 01
140900 1633N 06311W 8422 01562 //// +148 //// 346017 018 031 005 01
140930 1631N 06312W 8433 01550 //// +164 //// 344014 015 032 005 01
141000 1630N 06314W 8432 01553 //// +166 //// 340014 015 028 004 01
141030 1629N 06315W 8425 01559 //// +167 //// 343014 015 024 002 01
141100 1628N 06316W 8433 01554 //// +169 //// 342015 016 021 002 01
141130 1627N 06317W 8422 01567 //// +171 //// 336016 016 022 001 01
141200 1625N 06319W 8433 01553 //// +175 //// 339016 016 021 001 01
141230 1624N 06320W 8435 01556 //// +172 //// 337014 015 022 001 01
141300 1623N 06321W 8426 01564 //// +173 //// 340015 015 020 001 01
141330 1622N 06322W 8434 01556 //// +175 //// 344015 016 019 001 01
141400 1620N 06324W 8428 01564 //// +176 //// 344017 018 021 000 01
$$
;

[shaggy]

With these center relocations and now a further north track could it be possible she skirts the north coast of hispaniola? If she is skirting the north coast and the deeper convection is north of her could it pull her center even further north?

Seems these center relocations could change the overall game if she has less interaction with the bigger islands.

[bella_may]

Think this thing could wobble to the wsw some in a little while

[Aric Dunn]

would not really call that a center.. more than it is weak flow do to its continued fast forward motion.. the wind direction near the islands dont exactly fit with a center down there.. lol

[painkillerr]

Aric,it looks more and more that PR will get a direct hit if this trend continues. Keep the updates comming of where the center is as is crucial at this time not only for PR but downstream.

Luis,

look forward to your updates tonight as Irene appraches...

Luis, I'm already set up in St. Thomas. Will keep you posted.

[Nimbus]

With these center relocations and now a further north track could it be possible she skirts the north coast of hispaniola? If she is skirting the north coast and the deeper convection is north of her could it pull her center even further north?

Seems these center relocations could change the overall game if she has less interaction with the bigger islands.

Thats what I was thinking. At least initially though the land interaction should help keep the intensity down. It would probably be better for Irene to travel over Puerto Rico as a tropical storm rather than have her intensifying into a hurricane and raking the southern coastline of the islands.

[Vortex]

Visible imagery continues to indicate a system organizing at a pretty good clip. If she can stay just south of PR and Hispanolia I expect Huricane Irene on Monday....