ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100243
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 24 20110910
023330 1332N 05948W 8429 01576 //// +172 //// 169010 011 001 000 01
023400 1334N 05947W 8426 01573 //// +167 //// 168011 012 003 000 01
023430 1335N 05945W 8429 01572 //// +172 //// 159011 012 000 000 01
023500 1336N 05943W 8431 01573 //// +171 //// 165008 010 000 000 05
023530 1337N 05942W 8427 01575 //// +170 //// 175009 010 000 000 01
023600 1338N 05940W 8429 01575 //// +169 //// 178009 009 000 000 01
023630 1338N 05938W 8430 01571 //// +169 //// 180009 011 000 001 05
023700 1339N 05936W 8433 01572 //// +171 //// 183011 012 000 000 01
023730 1339N 05934W 8447 01549 //// +170 //// 185011 012 001 001 01
023800 1339N 05932W 8433 01564 //// +175 //// 185010 011 001 000 05
023830 1338N 05931W 8412 01587 //// +169 //// 200008 010 015 000 01
023900 1338N 05930W 8436 01564 //// +169 //// 195008 009 005 000 05
023930 1337N 05928W 8417 01584 //// +170 //// 202009 010 001 000 01
024000 1336N 05926W 8434 01571 //// +167 //// 199011 011 000 000 01
024030 1335N 05925W 8431 01576 //// +170 //// 205011 011 002 000 01
024100 1334N 05923W 8435 01572 //// +167 //// 200010 011 014 000 01
024130 1333N 05921W 8429 01580 //// +165 //// 208009 010 005 000 01
024200 1332N 05920W 8430 01579 //// +164 //// 202011 011 001 000 01
024230 1331N 05918W 8432 01577 //// +165 //// 198011 011 001 000 01
024300 1330N 05916W 8432 01576 //// +169 //// 207012 013 002 000 01
$$

[artist]

[artist]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT MARIA REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 59.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM N OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[artist]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100249
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT MARIA REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 59.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM N OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICA
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SATURDAY...AND BE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE STARTING ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...
280 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 100253
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 25 20110910
024330 1329N 05914W 8429 01579 //// +172 //// 204014 014 002 000 01
024400 1328N 05913W 8432 01577 //// +177 //// 206015 016 001 000 01
024430 1328N 05911W 8432 01576 //// +173 //// 203016 017 001 000 01
024500 1327N 05909W 8429 01580 //// +174 //// 199017 017 002 000 01
024530 1326N 05907W 8432 01577 //// +170 //// 198016 016 001 000 01
024600 1325N 05906W 8430 01580 //// +170 //// 198015 015 003 000 01
024630 1324N 05904W 8432 01580 //// +170 //// 194016 016 003 000 01
024700 1323N 05902W 8432 01581 //// +170 //// 193016 017 003 000 01
024730 1323N 05900W 8429 01582 //// +171 //// 195017 018 002 000 01
024800 1322N 05858W 8432 01577 //// +175 //// 195018 019 003 000 01
024830 1322N 05857W 8429 01581 //// +175 //// 195019 019 004 000 01
024900 1321N 05855W 8432 01578 //// +179 //// 198018 018 006 000 01
024930 1321N 05853W 8432 01579 //// +179 //// 201018 019 007 000 01
025000 1321N 05851W 8433 01577 //// +177 //// 195019 019 005 000 01
025030 1320N 05849W 8431 01578 //// +174 //// 188023 024 009 000 01
025100 1320N 05847W 8432 01581 //// +176 //// 188023 023 006 000 01
025130 1320N 05845W 8435 01576 //// +180 //// 189023 025 008 000 05
025200 1320N 05843W 8430 01583 //// +184 //// 192021 022 /// /// 05
025230 1320N 05841W 8433 01578 //// +185 //// 194021 022 /// /// 05
025300 1320N 05839W 8430 01579 //// +188 //// 189021 022 /// /// 05
$$

[artist]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100303
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 26 20110910
025330 1320N 05837W 8433 01577 //// +189 //// 188022 022 006 000 05
025400 1320N 05835W 8429 01585 //// +190 //// 191021 022 /// /// 05
025430 1320N 05833W 8434 01578 //// +192 //// 190022 022 /// /// 05
025500 1321N 05831W 8430 01578 //// +193 //// 189021 021 /// /// 05
025530 1321N 05829W 8430 01581 //// +196 //// 189021 021 005 000 05
025600 1321N 05827W 8433 01576 //// +200 //// 191018 019 007 000 01
025630 1321N 05825W 8430 01580 //// +200 //// 188015 016 008 000 01
025700 1321N 05823W 8429 01582 //// +198 //// 194015 016 010 000 01
025730 1321N 05821W 8434 01575 //// +199 //// 193017 018 008 000 01
025800 1321N 05819W 8440 01566 //// +201 //// 188018 018 006 000 01
025830 1321N 05817W 8429 01574 //// +194 //// 179021 021 006 000 01
025900 1321N 05815W 8429 01571 //// +190 //// 183022 022 002 000 01
025930 1321N 05814W 8430 01571 //// +182 //// 187021 022 002 000 01
030000 1322N 05812W 8433 01569 //// +184 //// 189019 019 004 000 01
030030 1322N 05810W 8429 01576 //// +186 //// 185020 021 003 000 01
030100 1322N 05808W 8432 01573 //// +181 //// 180022 023 012 000 01
030130 1322N 05807W 8433 01572 //// +176 //// 179025 026 019 000 05
030200 1322N 05805W 8429 01581 //// +179 //// 177023 024 /// /// 05
030230 1324N 05805W 8429 01583 //// +187 //// 170020 022 /// /// 05
030300 1325N 05807W 8433 01574 //// +181 //// 172017 017 007 000 01
$$
;

[artist]

[artist]

RECCO Observations (tropical cyclone)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT11 KNHC 100305
97779 03020 70134 58118 15200 17018 19//9 /2507
RMK AF307 0314A MARIA OB 08
SWS = 7 KTS
SE Inbound

[Adoquín]

From the 11 Pm discussion

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/12.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100313
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 27 20110910
030330 1326N 05808W 8428 01579 //// +188 //// 179015 015 011 000 01
030400 1327N 05809W 8433 01573 //// +190 //// 177014 015 009 000 01
030430 1328N 05811W 8430 01576 //// +185 //// 181013 014 008 000 01
030500 1330N 05812W 8429 01575 //// +184 //// 179012 014 008 000 01
030530 1331N 05813W 8429 01577 //// +188 //// 159012 014 008 000 01
030600 1332N 05815W 8429 01579 //// +187 //// 173014 014 004 000 01
030630 1333N 05816W 8430 01575 //// +187 //// 182017 017 003 000 01
030700 1334N 05817W 8430 01576 //// +184 //// 183017 018 004 000 01
030730 1336N 05819W 8430 01574 //// +181 //// 179018 019 010 000 01
030800 1337N 05820W 8429 01576 //// +184 //// 175019 019 009 000 01
030830 1338N 05821W 8430 01576 //// +184 //// 177020 020 010 000 01
030900 1340N 05822W 8428 01578 //// +180 //// 177019 020 010 000 01
030930 1341N 05824W 8424 01583 //// +175 //// 179018 019 010 000 01
031000 1342N 05825W 8432 01578 //// +177 //// 171018 018 005 000 01
031030 1344N 05827W 8432 01578 //// +174 //// 174018 018 006 000 01
031100 1345N 05828W 8430 01582 //// +170 //// 178018 018 008 000 01
031130 1347N 05830W 8432 01577 //// +169 //// 182018 018 003 000 01
031200 1348N 05831W 8434 01575 //// +171 //// 185019 020 005 000 01
031230 1350N 05833W 8433 01577 //// +171 //// 188018 019 008 001 01
031300 1351N 05834W 8436 01571 //// +166 //// 183020 020 006 000 01
$$

[artist]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100323
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 28 20110910
031330 1352N 05835W 8432 01575 //// +166 //// 183020 021 004 000 01
031400 1354N 05837W 8433 01575 //// +165 //// 181019 019 004 000 01
031430 1355N 05838W 8431 01576 //// +165 //// 181020 020 002 000 01
031500 1357N 05840W 8431 01574 //// +165 //// 180020 021 002 000 01
031530 1358N 05841W 8431 01575 //// +165 //// 178021 022 005 000 01
031600 1400N 05843W 8430 01574 //// +165 //// 178020 021 001 000 01
031630 1401N 05844W 8430 01571 //// +165 //// 180019 019 000 000 01
031700 1402N 05846W 8429 01572 //// +165 //// 177018 018 000 000 01
031730 1404N 05847W 8430 01575 //// +169 //// 175018 018 000 000 01
031800 1405N 05849W 8432 01571 //// +167 //// 176017 018 000 000 01
031830 1407N 05850W 8432 01573 //// +165 //// 179019 019 000 000 01
031900 1408N 05852W 8432 01572 //// +165 //// 181017 019 001 000 01
031930 1410N 05853W 8433 01573 //// +166 //// 183015 015 003 000 01
032000 1411N 05855W 8428 01575 //// +165 //// 182013 014 002 000 01
032030 1413N 05856W 8433 01571 //// +165 //// 191013 013 003 000 01
032100 1414N 05857W 8431 01574 //// +166 //// 200012 013 001 000 01
032130 1415N 05859W 8429 01577 //// +171 //// 193013 015 001 000 01
032200 1417N 05900W 8437 01566 //// +171 //// 187010 011 001 000 01
032230 1418N 05902W 8428 01578 //// +168 //// 173007 008 002 000 01
032300 1420N 05903W 8433 01571 //// +168 //// 176007 008 007 000 01

[tobol.7uno]

Just another image from a different angle, this one includes computer models.

[artist]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100333
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 29 20110910
032330 1421N 05905W 8433 01573 //// +170 //// 167006 007 008 000 01
032400 1422N 05906W 8432 01572 //// +172 //// 167004 004 008 000 01
032430 1424N 05907W 8428 01577 //// +165 //// 134007 008 005 000 01
032500 1425N 05909W 8429 01575 //// +168 //// 138006 007 008 000 01
032530 1427N 05910W 8429 01574 //// +165 //// 125009 009 007 000 01
032600 1428N 05912W 8431 01570 //// +169 //// 157009 009 007 000 01
032630 1429N 05913W 8433 01568 //// +179 //// 167008 008 008 000 01
032700 1431N 05915W 8433 01569 //// +186 //// 168010 011 007 000 01
032730 1432N 05916W 8431 01570 //// +184 //// 165009 010 003 000 01
032800 1434N 05918W 8427 01574 //// +184 //// 171009 010 005 000 01
032830 1435N 05919W 8432 01568 //// +183 //// 180009 009 004 000 01
032900 1436N 05920W 8431 01571 //// +185 //// 181009 009 003 000 01
032930 1438N 05922W 8432 01571 //// +184 //// 190007 009 002 000 01
033000 1439N 05923W 8432 01569 //// +185 //// 186003 003 002 000 01
033030 1441N 05925W 8430 01571 //// +180 //// 145003 004 001 000 01
033100 1442N 05926W 8426 01574 //// +175 //// 114006 008 000 000 05
033130 1444N 05926W 8431 01569 //// +172 //// 116009 010 003 000 01
033200 1446N 05926W 8435 01565 //// +169 //// 130011 012 003 000 01
033230 1448N 05926W 8432 01569 //// +166 //// 131010 011 003 000 01
033300 1450N 05926W 8432 01568 //// +165 //// 133013 015 001 000 01
$$
;

[tobol.7uno]

[artist]

[tobol.7uno]

Light and variable winds to the southwest of the center! Barely supports Maria being a tropical cyclone. The hurricane hunters have not found TS winds but NHC says that it is because the plane did not fly far enough north of the center to get these winds. Thoughts on whether or not this system should be called a Tropical cyclone?

[artist]

Light and variable winds to the southwest of the center! Barely supports Maria being a tropical cyclone. The hurricane hunters have not found TS winds but NHC says that it is because the plane did not fly far enough north of the center to get these winds. Thoughts on whether or not this system should be called a Tropical cyclone?

personally I feel like recon has barely touched the storm.