ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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meriland23
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#1841 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:47 am

thanks @southflorida. I see nogaps right now, looks like a curve at about 70w
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#1842 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:08 am

UKMET model Oz

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... tLoop.html
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#1843 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:17 am

ecmwf loop Oz, updating.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
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#1844 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:22 am

:uarrow: Wow on ecm, take a look at teh difference between 96 and 120 hours. All that purple.
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#1845 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:34 am

Holy moley! It curves WSW at 144 on the euro :eek:
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Re:

#1846 Postby Kohlecane » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:36 am

meriland23 wrote::uarrow: Wow on ecm, take a look at teh difference between 96 and 120 hours. All that purple.

Maydays be on Alert!!, hope it doesnt get to close by Sept 10th ill be right near Outer Banks
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1847 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:38 am

73/27 at 168 WNW heading
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#1848 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:39 am

This run is heading straight for northern florida up to missisippi so far.

edit: sorry, I get the states mixed up, I mean N florida up to N carolina
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Re:

#1849 Postby Rainband » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:43 am

meriland23 wrote:This run is heading straight for northern florida up to missisippi so far.

edit: sorry, I get the states mixed up, I mean N florida up to N carolina
wonder if td13 slow movement will be the caveat :think: :think:
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1850 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:50 am

Sharp Due N turn at 192H 32N 73W
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#1851 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:50 am

h192 looks to be a strong NE curve lot of yellow up there.
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#1852 Postby maxintensity » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:53 am

positive step in the right direction for the USA tonight. Models trended east.
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Re:

#1853 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 1:59 am

maxintensity wrote:positive step in the right direction for the USA tonight. Models trended east.

It looks the other way around for me, looking more ominous for the US for me.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1854 Postby Meso » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:02 am

The GFS ensemble models shifted mostly east, but the EURO does take it closer to the CONUS before recurving it.
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#1855 Postby supercane » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:04 am

00Z ECMWF shows it will be a long 7-10 days, but ultimately out to sea:
Day 0:
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Day 1:
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Day 2:
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Day 3:
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Day 4:
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Day 5:
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Day 6:
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Day 7:
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Day 8:
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Day 9:
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#1856 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:04 am

I compared the latest run to the 12z, 12z curves strong @ h216, almost due east. 0z has a slightly more subtle curve around h192 and rides along side the EC till it takes off around nova.
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#1857 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 am

Whichever model got the long term most correct after this is done and over with deserves a pop tart...im buying.
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#1858 Postby supercane » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:08 am

00Z ECMWF Day 10:
Image
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#1859 Postby FireRat » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:10 am

Remember....trends are our friends, or fiends.

So far it's been a bit of a fiend, that cone is not what you want to see in Early September. It will be a close call to say the least if the 5 day model tracks verify.
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#1860 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:31 am

Well the idea of this geting further west but still recurving seems to be picking up agreement, of course much still depends on factors like TD13.

Models showing a rather sharp recurve.
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