ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100343
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 30 20110910
033330 1452N 05926W 8433 01571 //// +161 //// 125014 016 000 000 01
033400 1454N 05926W 8431 01566 //// +155 //// 104010 011 001 000 01
033430 1456N 05926W 8432 01567 //// +150 //// 117010 012 002 000 01
033500 1458N 05926W 8433 01567 //// +151 //// 120012 013 001 000 01
033530 1500N 05926W 8428 01571 //// +171 //// 028008 011 001 000 01
033600 1502N 05926W 8432 01567 //// +189 //// 024009 011 001 000 01
033630 1504N 05926W 8429 01571 //// +193 //// 052008 008 000 000 01
033700 1506N 05926W 8434 01566 //// +190 //// 078008 008 000 000 01
033730 1507N 05926W 8429 01568 //// +190 //// 085007 008 000 000 05
033800 1509N 05926W 8431 01565 //// +186 //// 097006 006 000 000 01
033830 1511N 05926W 8430 01569 //// +185 //// 103003 004 000 000 01
033900 1513N 05926W 8432 01566 //// +185 //// 102003 004 000 000 01
033930 1515N 05926W 8430 01569 //// +182 //// 107004 004 000 000 01
034000 1517N 05926W 8430 01567 //// +181 //// 128004 004 000 000 01
034030 1519N 05926W 8432 01570 //// +179 //// 140005 006 000 000 01
034100 1521N 05926W 8433 01564 //// +179 //// 153004 005 000 000 01
034130 1523N 05926W 8433 01567 //// +179 //// 165003 004 000 000 01
034200 1525N 05926W 8433 01566 //// +175 //// 156002 003 000 000 01
034230 1527N 05926W 8433 01566 //// +175 //// 163005 006 000 000 01
034300 1529N 05926W 8433 01565 //// +180 //// 184006 007 000 000 01

[artist]

[floridasun78]

now moving back wnw

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100353
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 31 20110910
034330 1531N 05925W 8432 01568 //// +180 //// 209004 004 000 000 01
034400 1533N 05925W 8430 01568 //// +174 //// 183004 005 000 000 05
034430 1535N 05925W 8428 01570 //// +176 //// 189006 007 000 000 01
034500 1537N 05925W 8431 01566 //// +177 //// 203007 008 000 000 01
034530 1539N 05925W 8430 01566 //// +173 //// 202008 009 000 000 01
034600 1541N 05925W 8433 01562 //// +175 //// 188010 011 000 000 01
034630 1543N 05925W 8432 01564 //// +176 //// 179010 010 001 000 01
034700 1545N 05925W 8432 01563 //// +180 //// 176010 010 001 000 01
034730 1547N 05925W 8430 01564 //// +180 //// 178012 012 001 000 01
034800 1549N 05925W 8432 01562 //// +180 //// 178013 014 001 000 01
034830 1551N 05925W 8431 01562 //// +180 //// 183014 015 002 000 01
034900 1553N 05925W 8432 01562 //// +181 //// 180013 014 002 000 01
034930 1555N 05925W 8432 01561 //// +180 //// 170011 012 002 000 01
035000 1557N 05925W 8433 01561 //// +176 //// 168011 012 004 000 01
035030 1559N 05925W 8429 01566 //// +171 //// 155010 010 007 000 01
035100 1601N 05925W 8431 01564 //// +170 //// 152010 011 011 000 01
035130 1603N 05925W 8432 01559 //// +170 //// 150012 013 013 000 01
035200 1605N 05925W 8431 01562 //// +170 //// 147016 017 010 000 01
035230 1607N 05925W 8431 01564 //// +168 //// 133015 016 009 000 01
035300 1609N 05925W 8432 01562 //// +163 //// 126015 016 015 000 01
$$

[Adoquín]

She is a developing storm, look at those pinks to the east. organizing storms do not behave like cookies of a cookie cutter

[artist]

[artist]

She is a developing storm, look at those pinks to the east. organizing storms do not behave like cookies of a cookie cutter

look at those cold cloud tops. And she is very oddly shaped at this point!

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100403
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 32 20110910
035330 1611N 05925W 8443 01547 //// +166 //// 129011 013 011 000 01
035400 1613N 05925W 8427 01559 //// +167 //// 121011 011 007 000 01
035430 1614N 05924W 8432 01556 //// +160 //// 097012 013 008 000 05
035500 1616N 05924W 8430 01558 //// +162 //// 100011 012 009 000 01
035530 1618N 05924W 8421 01569 //// +164 //// 103014 016 017 000 01
035600 1620N 05924W 8430 01565 //// +167 //// 111016 017 018 000 01
035630 1622N 05924W 8431 01564 //// +166 //// 108018 019 019 001 01
035700 1624N 05925W 8429 01564 //// +169 //// 107020 021 020 000 01
035730 1626N 05925W 8435 01558 //// +170 //// 105019 019 023 000 01
035800 1628N 05925W 8433 01561 //// +170 //// 100020 020 024 000 01
035830 1630N 05925W 8429 01566 //// +168 //// 097022 022 024 000 01
035900 1631N 05925W 8431 01564 //// +161 //// 097021 022 025 000 01
035930 1633N 05925W 8434 01561 //// +159 //// 094021 022 026 000 01
040000 1635N 05925W 8430 01566 //// +158 //// 088023 024 023 000 01
040030 1637N 05925W 8434 01563 //// +159 //// 085027 028 025 000 01
040100 1639N 05925W 8430 01566 //// +153 //// 091026 026 025 000 01
040130 1641N 05925W 8430 01566 //// +152 //// 093029 030 020 000 05
040200 1643N 05925W 8430 01566 //// +146 //// 086028 028 028 004 05
040230 1645N 05925W 8436 01559 //// +147 //// 088028 029 028 002 01
040300 1647N 05924W 8432 01566 //// +159 //// 092030 031 025 000 01
$$

[artist]

[artist]

ok, after almost 7 hours of posting recon today, my eyes have had it.
Someone please post the rest of the obs and images, if possible.They are now entering the northern half of the storm where all the higher winds were located today.

[Gustywind]

Be aware, safe and dry my friends in the islands. Don't let your guard down! Have a good night and keep an eye on Maria...

[artist]

Be aware, safe and dry my friends in the islands. Don't let your guard down! Have a good night and keep an eye on Maria...

well said, Gusty!

[Gustywind]

Be aware, safe and dry my friends in the islands. Don't let your guard down! Have a good night and keep an eye on Maria...

well said, Gusty!

Thanks my friend you make a ggod job by keeping us informed! Well, don't know what Maria is doing, TS or not tonight, let's continue to keep a close eye on! Given our Pro-Mets of Meteo-France, seems that Maria is expected tommorow 7AM/8AM, but we will see. See you soon, time to sleep.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Ouragans hope you're right?! What do you think about Maria?

[HurricaneQueen]

Gusty, ouragans, Luis, Barb, MJ and all of my S2K friends in the Caribbean,

Best of luck to all of you. Be safe, stay dry and don't take any unnecessary chances. Hopefully this won't be much more than a summer afternoon storm.

Thinking about all of you.

Lynn

[Gustywind]

Gusty, ouragans, Luis, Barb, MJ and all of my S2K friends in the Caribbean,

Best of luck to all of you. Be safe, stay dry and don't take any unnecessary chances. Hopefully this won't be much more than a summer afternoon storm.

Thinking about all of you.

Lynn

Thanks! we appreciate sincerely Lynn! Time to have a rest now.
Gustywind

[tobol.7uno]

[tobol.7uno]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100433
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 35 20110910
042330 1709N 06034W 3977 07622 0402 -147 //// 070005 007 029 000 01
042400 1709N 06037W 3890 07794 0414 -162 //// 083009 009 028 000 01
042430 1709N 06039W 3825 07917 0423 -172 //// 080009 009 030 000 01
042500 1709N 06041W 3768 08035 0431 -182 //// 072009 009 032 000 01
042530 1709N 06043W 3710 08149 0448 -192 //// 075008 009 031 001 01
042600 1709N 06045W 3649 08293 0466 -200 //// 072009 010 027 000 01
042630 1709N 06048W 3596 08404 0473 -206 //// 064010 010 025 000 01
042700 1709N 06050W 3549 08497 0480 -214 //// 064011 011 027 001 01
042730 1709N 06052W 3502 08596 0474 -223 //// 063010 011 026 002 01
042800 1709N 06054W 3445 08697 0471 -232 //// 053009 009 019 000 05
042830 1708N 06057W 3400 08784 0474 -235 //// 050008 008 015 000 05
042900 1707N 06059W 3361 08872 0480 -241 //// 041008 009 019 000 05
042930 1707N 06101W 3336 08926 0483 -251 //// 048011 011 026 000 05
043000 1707N 06103W 3295 09020 0489 -253 //// 058010 011 033 005 01
043030 1707N 06106W 3251 09115 0495 -259 //// 045011 011 032 008 01
043100 1707N 06108W 3208 09213 0503 -266 //// 036011 012 031 002 01
043130 1708N 06110W 3172 09290 0506 -273 //// 036011 012 028 000 01
043200 1708N 06113W 3145 09355 0511 -276 //// 065009 009 024 000 01
043230 1708N 06115W 3117 09419 0514 -280 //// 093008 008 024 000 01
043300 1708N 06117W 3081 09503 0516 -289 //// 085009 010 023 000 01
$$
;

[fci]

2004 was a rare event for Florida. It may be another 200 years for something like that to happen. To get a Cape Verde system to hit the United States, even Florida, is generally quite difficult as the ridging must be setup just right for that to happen, and most of the time there are sufficient number of mid-continental troughs to break it down just enough to allow recurvature or the ridging is there but there is too much shear so the system doesn't develop and only impacts as a Tropical wave.. Of course some sneak through like Andrew....but generally quite rare. After the 1940s...not many MAJOR hurricane impacted Florida when you think about it.

Most of Florida's systems hit from the south or southwest (e.g. Wilma, Fay...etc), not the east anyway. Probably time to look to the Western/Central Caribbean if there are going to be any Florida threats this season...

I seem to remember as a kid growing up that we rarely got a Hurricane strike here in SE Florida.
It seemed very common that storms would do just what they are doing this season, recurve by the Bahamas.
More often, it seemed; that they would hit or brush the outer banks on their way out.
Or they would travel through the Carib. cross Western Cuba or the Yucatan and be a GOM threat.
Those instances, Betsy, Cleo, David Andrew,Frances, Jeanne, Katrina; seemed to be more the exception than the rule.

I am speaking off the cuff of my recollections. I've not gone through and looked at specific years and history just what I remember. I do specifically remember when I was growing up that I was quite a wonderful forecaster and loved getting struck by storms.
That was of course, until I became an adult, a homeowner and financially responsible which now makes a hurricane strike just the opposite a thrill. I wishcast them away!!!

You would enjoy reading these two books:

Florida's Hurricane History by Jay Barnes
http://www.amazon.com/Floridas-Hurrican ... 0807847488

Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms: JOHN M. WILLIAMS with Iver Duedall
http://www.amazon.com/Florida-Hurricane ... pd_sim_b_1

The second text has a really good breakdown of T.C. tracks around Florida by decade.

Thanks Tony.
I have ordered them up from the county library and look forward to reading them
Thanks!

[fci]

I seem to remember as a kid growing up that we rarely got a Hurricane strike here in SE Florida.
It seemed very common that storms would do just what they are doing this season, recurve by the Bahamas.
More often, it seemed; that they would hit or brush the outer banks on their way out.
Or they would travel through the Carib. cross Western Cuba or the Yucatan and be a GOM threat.
Those instances, Betsy, Cleo, David Andrew,Frances, Jeanne, Katrina; seemed to be more the exception than the rule.

I am speaking off the cuff of my recollections. I've not gone through and looked at specific years and history just what I remember. I do specifically remember when I was growing up that I was quite a wonderful forecaster and loved getting struck by storms.
That was of course, until I became an adult, a homeowner and financially responsible which now makes a hurricane strike just the opposite a thrill. I wishcast them away!!!

You would enjoy reading these two books:

Florida's Hurricane History by Jay Barnes
http://www.amazon.com/Floridas-Hurrican ... 0807847488

Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms: JOHN M. WILLIAMS with Iver Duedall
http://www.amazon.com/Florida-Hurricane ... pd_sim_b_1

The second text has a really good breakdown of T.C. tracks around Florida by decade.

Quoting from the first text and adding some adlib.

From 1900-1997 57 hurricanes made landfall in Florida. "Far more than any other state for this period"
"Some of the more powerful storms struck in the first part of the century, " Few major storms hit from 1960-1980s

"However there was a few notable exceptions, Donna 1960 was one of this century’s most powerful hurricanes, Betsy Dora, Eloise, and Elena.

But unlike recent decade Florida was battered in the 20s,30s, and 40s,. Imagine the costs of the damage if this scenario was to play out nowadays. 1926 Great Miami Hurricane Cat 4 373 dead, 112 mil in damage, 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane 1836 Dead in Florida and 1500 in Caribbean, 1929 Long Key Hurricane, Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Fort Lauderdale Hurricane of 1947, Delray Beach Hurricane of 1949 and hurricane King in 1950. From 1926 - 1929 the Florida coast from the Keys to West Palm Beach was destroyed by Major Hurricanes only to be hit again in 1935, 1947 and 1949 in almost the exact same spots. Most of these all hit in September.

I strongly suggest purchasing these texts if you are in to Tropical Weather at all as they are great reading and very informative.

I have put in reserves with the Palm Beach Public Library for both texts!
I think the statement about 57 hurricanes making landfall in 97 years refers to the entire state.
I was referring to my frame of reference as a kid which is Southeast Florida.
My point was that, with exception; and there are startlingly fierce exceptions; I recollect the vast majority of storms missing SE Florida. Note although the 9 storms indicated in the 20's,30's and 40's were horrible; when you add up the number of storms inclusive of Andrew, Donna, Betsy, Cleo, Frances, Jeanne and Wilma; there are still not a large number of storms hitting SE Florida over 100 years.
I'm surely not dismissing the dangers here, I was just pointing out that in my recollection growing up; the current pattern was very, very common.
Thanks to you and to Tony for the book recommendations, I will read them and really look forward to learning more facts than just my personal recollections as a kid growing up down here.