AJC3 wrote:Just thought I'd throw this out there with respect to the dual or split structure of the vort centers. The 30/00Z ECM run showed this taking place. The morning before last, here's what I made of it...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011
.DISCUSSION...
<snip>
WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE TO THE SE AS THE MID ATLC DISTURBANCE/T-WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE GREATER ANTILLES AND SERN BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. STRENGTH/POSITION OF WRN ATLC RIDGE WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SYSTEM AND JUST HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO FL. THE GFS IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM TURNING NORTH NEAR/EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WHILE THE ECM ACTUALLY SPLITS THE H85 VORT ENERGY. IT RUNS THE LEAD PIECE WNW THROUGH THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES...DAMPENING IT OUT AS IT APPROACHES SE FLORIDA WHILE TAKING A WEAKER TRAILING PIECE AND TURNING IT NWD WELL EAST OF FL.
Granted, the weaker piece may actually be the lead one (although it's 30/00Z run wasn't terribly strong with either). Occasionally, an ECM outlier TC solution will show something which looks rather odd...for example, back in 2008, about a week and change out, it showed a solution where the low that would become Fay started to recurve across south central Florida, but stalled along the east coast near Juipter, moved due north up the east coast to Saint Augustine, then moved due westward, grinding the Florida Panhandle in the process. Later runs didn't show this as much, and it was ironic that this solution came very close to fruition.
good old fay, affected the entire state of florida, making at least 3 landfalls as i remember maybe a 4th in the riviera
