ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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KWT
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#1861 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:34 am

Large convective burst is weakening a little now, will have to wait for the morning Vis imagery to see where Katia is at right now.
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dwsqos2

Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1862 Postby dwsqos2 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:58 am

I'm borrowing another person's hosted image, because there isn't any reason to upload a duplicate, but latest microwave imagery shows a bit more organization. I can't say I'm surprised because there was a bit more curvature in the cloud pattern than is typical with a simple convective burst.

http://i56.tinypic.com/2r7lt0n.jpg
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#1863 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:02 am

Model track update. (spaghetti)

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/p ... _thumb.jpg
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#1864 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:08 am

Do you guys think these models are now correct, making that super sharp recurve around 70-75W and missing the us? If so why? If not, why not?

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1865 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:08 am

People,

stop quoting images and no one liners or +1. If you have an issue with a post then either report it or take it to a PM.
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#1866 Postby Caribwxgirl » Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:37 am

Tell me something hasn't the actual track been a little south of the official track from the beginning? It looks that way to me.
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#1867 Postby Time_Zone » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:25 am

So....looks like this will stay offshore and not affect Nova Scotia? It likely wouldnt be anything more then a minimal cat1 by time it made it all the way up here anyways, right?
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#1868 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:42 am

New day, new model. :sun:
gfs 06z

h24

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1869 Postby ronjon » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:50 am

From NHC 5 am:

AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ALL MODELS FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WOULD FORCE KATIA TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST. :eek:
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#1870 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:54 am

The Euro has Katia making the turn at appoximately 73 degrees longitude @ 168 hours. That is too close for comfort for people on the Outer Banks of NC Hopefully the sharp curve to the NE will materialize to avoid the U.S. East Coast. However, the Canadian maritimes may have even a closer call late next week with Katia.
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#1871 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:55 am

h48

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#1872 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:04 am

h72
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#1873 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:10 am

h96

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#1874 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:11 am

Katia
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1875 Postby ronjon » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:14 am

What is worrying about the long range pattern is the extensive mid-level ridging oriented east-west north of the cyclone late in the period. These types of set ups sometimes strengthen the ridging with a deep cyclone. We in the US are depending upon a trough rapidly eroding this ridge in the 8-9 day time frame. Too far out yet to know if that'll happen before it makes landfall.
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#1876 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:17 am

h120

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#1877 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:19 am

seriously, this system stalls for a whole day in the same spot and strengthens according to this gfs
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#1878 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:23 am

h144
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#1879 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:30 am

h168

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#1880 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:37 am

h192

very close to the OB

Image
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