ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

Can I leave mine for 35 minutes? LOL Sure....

[crimi481]

If Shear is pretty low (I think it is?)
and Gulf waters extremely warm - and surrounding moisture content high -
Why is sytem not "taking off" (rapid intesification)
Any thoughts?

[southerngale]

I don't have an image, but the word is that the 12z Euro is still showing Deep South Texas.

[plasticup]

If Shear is pretty low (I think it is?)
and Gulf waters extremely warm - and surrounding moisture content high -
Why is sytem not "taking off" (rapid intesification)
Any thoughts?

Shear is not that low, and the Gulf is covered in stable, dry air. RI requires near-perfect conditions, and that's not what this fella has ahead of him.

[TexasF6]

Yes, we-- Texas, really need this rainmaker.....so what are the chances of RI? The shear is forecast to be low...or has that changed?

[Dave]

605
URNT15 KNHC 271807
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 08 20110727
175800 2458N 08948W 3922 07748 0424 -163 //// 127014 014 /// /// 05
175830 2456N 08948W 3931 07729 0423 -158 //// 129014 015 /// /// 05
175900 2453N 08949W 3925 07741 0423 -162 //// 127014 015 /// /// 05
175930 2450N 08949W 3927 07734 0422 -160 //// 124014 015 /// /// 05
180000 2448N 08949W 3927 07734 0421 -160 //// 121014 015 /// /// 05
180030 2445N 08949W 3925 07740 0422 -164 //// 118015 015 /// /// 05
180100 2442N 08949W 3927 07735 0422 -164 //// 116014 015 /// /// 05
180130 2440N 08950W 3927 07735 0422 -160 //// 116013 013 /// /// 05
180200 2437N 08950W 3925 07740 0422 -163 //// 115014 015 /// /// 05
180230 2434N 08950W 3926 07733 0421 -163 //// 115011 012 /// /// 05
180300 2432N 08950W 3926 07736 0421 -160 //// 115010 010 /// /// 05
180330 2429N 08951W 3926 07736 0421 -161 //// 128010 010 /// /// 05
180400 2426N 08950W 3926 07736 0421 -165 //// 135009 009 /// /// 05
180430 2424N 08950W 3927 07735 0422 -163 //// 129008 009 /// /// 05
180500 2421N 08950W 4028 07548 0413 -154 //// 103010 011 /// /// 05
180530 2418N 08950W 4117 07384 0405 -145 //// 095007 008 /// /// 05
180600 2415N 08950W 4200 07232 0397 -134 //// 083005 006 /// /// 05
180630 2412N 08950W 4370 06937 0384 -121 //// 068004 005 /// /// 05
180700 2409N 08950W 4551 06624 0365 -105 //// 042003 004 /// /// 05
180730 2406N 08949W 4748 06296 0345 -081 //// 027005 006 /// /// 05
$$

Dropping to operational altitude

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If Shear is pretty low (I think it is?)
and Gulf waters extremely warm - and surrounding moisture content high -
Why is sytem not "taking off" (rapid intesification)
Any thoughts?

Three factors:

1.) The invest is very close to the Yucatan peninsula, and the waters there are relatively cooler.

2.) There will be dry air in the central Gulf of Mexico that it may have to contend it.

3.) The low-level and mid-level circulations are not stacked, although it is definitely getting that way over the past two/three hours or sso.

When the circulations are stacked, and it pulls away from the Yucatan peninsula, it will strengthen some.

[TexasF6]

If Shear is pretty low (I think it is?)
and Gulf waters extremely warm - and surrounding moisture content high -
Why is sytem not "taking off" (rapid intesification)
Any thoughts?

Shear is not that low, and the Gulf is covered in stable, dry air. RI requires near-perfect conditions, and that's not what this fella has ahead of him.

thanks plasticup!!!

[latitude_20]

Looks like they've started the descent....

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

566
URNT15 KNHC 271818
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 09 20110727
180800 2403N 08949W 4945 05980 0325 -067 //// 043004 005 /// /// 05
180830 2400N 08949W 5149 05664 0307 -051 //// 061006 006 /// /// 05
180900 2357N 08949W 5355 05354 0288 -029 //// 077004 006 /// /// 05
180930 2354N 08948W 5565 05043 //// -010 //// 126003 004 /// /// 05
181000 2352N 08946W 5798 04722 //// +005 //// 112005 006 /// /// 05
181030 2351N 08944W 6165 04227 //// +030 //// 047005 006 /// /// 05
181100 2349N 08941W 6513 03761 //// +063 //// 024006 007 /// /// 05
181130 2348N 08939W 6775 03434 //// +083 //// 009006 006 /// /// 05
181200 2346N 08936W 7050 03106 //// +106 //// 012006 006 /// /// 05
181230 2345N 08934W 7352 02755 //// +121 //// 032005 006 /// /// 05
181300 2343N 08932W 7578 02502 //// +133 //// 018005 006 /// /// 05
181330 2342N 08930W 7818 02241 //// +145 //// 022007 007 /// /// 05
181400 2341N 08929W 8077 01965 //// +158 //// 026008 008 /// /// 05
181430 2340N 08927W 8359 01673 //// +171 //// 034009 010 /// /// 05
181500 2339N 08925W 8621 01408 //// +186 //// 037008 008 /// /// 05
181530 2337N 08923W 8749 01277 //// +190 //// 034008 008 /// /// 05
181600 2336N 08922W 8942 01094 //// +199 //// 029006 007 /// /// 05
181630 2336N 08920W 9174 00871 //// +212 //// 038006 006 /// /// 05
181700 2335N 08919W 9403 00655 //// +226 //// 043007 007 /// /// 05
181730 2334N 08918W 9629 00441 //// +241 //// 053007 007 /// /// 05
$$
;


Operational altitude

[NDG]

Nevermind, I didn't realized that the plane is going to be approaching the COC from the NW quadrant, so more like 1:40 pm CDST, so around :50 past the hour we should have the report.

[Stormcenter]

Oh well I guess anything is still possible.

I don't have an image, but the word is that the 12z Euro is still showing Deep South Texas.

[HURAKAN]

[Portastorm]

Oh well I guess anything is still possible.

I don't have an image, but the word is that the 12z Euro is still showing Deep South Texas.

The online images I could find are all low resolution but from what I saw, it looked like a landfall on the northeast Mexican coastline ... a little south of Brownsville.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271828
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 10 20110727
181800 2333N 08916W 9781 00296 //// +253 //// 056008 008 /// /// 05
181830 2332N 08915W 9776 00300 //// +251 //// 060008 008 /// /// 05
181900 2331N 08914W 9780 00298 //// +251 //// 058008 009 /// /// 05
181930 2330N 08912W 9780 00298 //// +252 //// 051008 009 /// /// 05
182000 2329N 08911W 9781 00298 //// +255 //// 049009 009 /// /// 05
182030 2328N 08910W 9781 00298 //// +253 //// 046009 009 /// /// 05
182100 2327N 08908W 9780 00299 //// +253 //// 043009 009 /// /// 05
182130 2326N 08907W 9780 00300 0119 +252 +098 046008 009 /// /// 03
182200 2326N 08906W 9782 00299 0120 +251 +133 052009 009 /// /// 03
182230 2325N 08904W 9778 00300 0118 +250 +137 053008 008 /// /// 03
182300 2324N 08903W 9780 00295 0114 +250 +140 056009 009 /// /// 03
182330 2323N 08901W 9786 00287 0111 +252 +142 055009 009 /// /// 03
182400 2322N 08900W 9775 00298 0112 +250 +145 050009 009 011 001 03
182430 2321N 08859W 9778 00294 0111 +250 +144 048008 009 011 001 00
182500 2320N 08857W 9786 00287 0111 +250 +146 052009 009 013 000 00
182530 2319N 08856W 9774 00296 0110 +250 +149 055009 009 013 000 00
182600 2318N 08855W 9776 00298 0113 +250 +148 055009 009 015 001 00
182630 2317N 08853W 9785 00289 0112 +250 +150 052009 009 015 000 00
182700 2316N 08852W 9781 00294 0113 +250 +151 051008 008 013 001 00
182730 2315N 08850W 9783 00292 0114 +250 +152 050008 008 014 001 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF makes landfall north of Corpus Christi.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

[Portastorm]

Yeah, that is roughly the Matagorda area which many are already talking about as a likely landfall spot.