ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ozonepete]

The eastern blob's MLC seems like it may be working down to the surface now. It still has, and has always had, the better structure with some banding (western has none) and more outflow. It also has a larger circulation envelope and is where the models were progging something to be. That's probably why the NHC is concentrating on that area. Sure hope that RECON is getting the data even though it can't transmit it at this time. As long as they got it and are still getting it, because this is a truly fascinating case of cyclogenesis and could be used for some real insights.

problem is there is no west winds with the east area.. the western area and llc has the west winds... and thats where it will all come together later.. the MLC will catch up with the llc tonight and things should go from there

Really good points. I guess my biggest problem with the whole thing is that merges are very rare for two systems that are this distinct. 99% of the time one dies out or is absorbed into the other rather than a "merge." Having said that, your point about the surface west winds is important and I admit I forgot about that. Still, the western one could just as easily start dying down as the eastern one works down to the surface. That's why I said I'm really hoping that RECON is getting all of the data. This could be a huge advancement for our understanding of the physics.

BTW, Aric, it is so clear that you understand the physics REALLY well and always see these systems in terms of the basic physical principles involved, which is the only way to do it in the end. That's why i pay really close attention to what you say during these situations, and why you're right on formation issues pretty much every time. Anyway, this one takes the cake. Never seen a situation like this.

[SouthFLTropics]

If I was to venture a guess I'd say that the center seems to be consolodating around 14.5N and 54W, give or take a 10th of a degree or two.

SFT

[KWT]

Big difference in terms of upper pattern on the 18z...

Weak ridge forms off the east coast, not much BUT it may give the system a slight kick to the WNW again.

Very weak feature but that extra little kick west means if the trough isn't very strong then its going to be a threat to the east coast.

[Ivanhater]

168 hours...trough is much flatter than even the 12z run



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[Aric Dunn]

cycloneeye

I see I well produced MLC and a still elongated and large circulation with weak low level rotation near the western area. overall organization is poor.

[cheezyWXguy]

168 hours...trough is much flatter than even the 12z run



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Wow...thats a bit too close for comfort...

[capepoint]

Does anyone remember a storm that did something similar to this a few years ago? For some reason I think I remember 2 blobs that seemed to be competing to organize for several days, and the front part finally broke-off and went SW into south america, while the following blob ended-up headding west and developing.

Then again maybe it's just a tired brain from watching all of this for the last few days......lol

[artist]

Aric, what do you see in this shortwave loop?

I'm not Aric but I believe i can see some low level circulation in the wave on the east in the east to northeast qudrant. Just sayin. Eddited to add that along with the midlevel circulation of the whole wave. I think things are coming together for the eastern wave.

I truly think I do as well. I always have to concentrate away from the actual obvious mid and upper levels (by covering them) and look in all the so-called empty nooks and crannies to see what is going on along the fringes. It can be very difficult to spot sometimes, but I truly think I do see turning in the lower levels in all segments.

[SouthFLTropics]

168 hours...trough is much flatter than even the 12z run



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That's a little too close to my doorstep for comfort. I'd feel a whole lot better about this if it was mid to late September when I know there is a good chance of a decent strength trough coming down to kick this thing out. Early August is a whole different situation.

SFT

[Aric Dunn]

The eastern blob's MLC seems like it may be working down to the surface now. It still has, and has always had, the better structure with some banding (western has none) and more outflow. It also has a larger circulation envelope and is where the models were progging something to be. That's probably why the NHC is concentrating on that area. Sure hope that RECON is getting the data even though it can't transmit it at this time. As long as they got it and are still getting it, because this is a truly fascinating case of cyclogenesis and could be used for some real insights.

problem is there is no west winds with the east area.. the western area and llc has the west winds... and thats where it will all come together later.. the MLC will catch up with the llc tonight and things should go from there

Really good points. I guess my biggest problem with the whole thing is that merges are very rare for two systems that are this distinct. 99% of the time one dies out or is absorbed into the other rather than a "merge." Having said that, your point about the surface west winds is important and I admit I forgot about that. Still, the western one could just as easily start dying down as the eastern one works down to the surface. That's why I said I'm really hoping that RECON is getting all of the data. This could be a huge advancement for our understanding of the physics.

BTW, Aric, it is so clear that you understand the physics REALLY well and always see these systems in terms of the basic physical principles involved, which is the only way to do it in the end. That's why i pay really close attention to what you say during these situations, and why you're right on formation issues pretty much every time. Anyway, this one takes the cake. Never seen a situation like this.

Thanks.
also they are one and the same system overall both are within the large cyclonic envelope. Also the merger really would be more of a stacking.. since the MLC would technically just mover over the weak llc

[KWT]

Yep its very close actually on this run, as I said little weak ridge forms and and actually briefly moves it back on a WNW track towards the N.Bahamas.

Given something like that formed just 2-3 days ago from the main ridge, its perfectly possible solution.

[artist]

didn't someone mention earlier they had read that some of the recon obs and sampling of upper air conditions from the gulfstream would be in the 18z runs?

[Bluefrog]

YIKES Dont want it to hit anyone but I especially do not want it in the Gulf ..... sorry East Coasters but yall can have this one IF it ever develops ....

Not liking Ivan's last post ... dislike

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm starting to have Frances flashbacks all over again...

[Aric Dunn]

yeah 180 hours no NNE motion... just drifting..

[artist]

HMMMMMMMM....dropsonde soundings are coming in at the Tropical Atlantic page...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/UZNT13/KWBC/

32 knots from the ESE at 950 mb!

I think that may be the Gulfstream sampling the atmosphere. I could be wrong though.

[stormreader]

But seriously Aric in terms of organization.

Agree Cycloneye. At least I think you are referring to the lack of any organization in the west. Can't see any potential for development there (or anything like a merger). I don't think the NHC is considering it either.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm starting to have Frances flashbacks all over again...

this could pull any storm track in your sig, and they're all bad for Florida

[Aric Dunn]

after looking at the loop it does bend to the WNW again than slows around the northern bahamas looks like it will slowly start moving out that..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

yeah 180 hours no NNE motion... just drifting..

It is moving north to me. But there is nothing to move it into Florida at 180 hours.