ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[michaelder]

ok yeah the center has just started passing St kits to the wnw.. winds just switched to the S also pressure 1002 mb !! yeah recon is missing the center.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html

10 AM (14) Aug 21 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.59 (1002) S 9 light rain
9 AM (13) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) ENE 9 rain showers
8 AM (12) Aug 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NE 13 heavy rain
7 AM (11) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 16 rain

Aric, she appears to be deepening quickly if that 29.59 verifies...Thats a substantial drop in one hour!

Probably that pressure reading is wrong, the recon passed just a few miles east of that island, they would had seen that pressure.

Saba Island to the northwest of St. Kitts is reporting 29.65/1004.06. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... 0Eustatius

[jinftl]

Here's the trend by location of the Wind Probabilities the NHC issues with each advisory...the likelihood of at least sustained ts force winds continues to increase across the state, with the biggest increases and overall %s continuing to focus on the SE FL/NW Bahamas locations




link to NHC data: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/re ... 0909.shtml?

[Aric Dunn]

yeah they will pass through the "real" center if they keep that heading.

[blp]

11am cone shows more time over Hispaniola but less time over Cuba as it now keeps it offshore. In my opinion this is worse because if the core manages to stay together over Hispaniola it will have more time over water after it exits.

[Aric Dunn]

[

Aric, she appears to be deepening quickly if that 29.59 verifies...Thats a substantial drop in one hour!

Probably that pressure reading is wrong, the recon passed just a few miles east of that island, they would had seen that pressure.

Saba Island to the northwest of St. Kitts is reporting 29.65/1004.06. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... 0Eustatius

yeah that fits perfectly. the center is just the SW of that islands. did not pass over it so the pressure is not 1002.

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Looking more organized every frame.

[cpdaman]

Correct me if im wrong but weve seen systems stronger weaken alot...even when they just skirt the n.Coast of hispanola. However if it misses cuba this thing could bomb in se bahamas after hispanola

[RL3AO]

805
URNT15 KNHC 211514
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 30 20110821
150430 1609N 06156W 8430 01573 //// +170 //// 167023 023 021 000 05
150500 1611N 06158W 8428 01574 //// +169 //// 167022 022 022 000 01
150530 1612N 06159W 8431 01570 //// +173 //// 166024 025 024 000 05
150600 1614N 06201W 8429 01571 //// +174 //// 166022 023 023 001 01
150630 1615N 06203W 8430 01569 //// +170 //// 174023 023 023 001 01
150700 1617N 06204W 8429 01568 //// +175 //// 173024 024 024 000 01
150730 1618N 06206W 8444 01554 //// +177 //// 174025 026 023 000 01
150800 1620N 06207W 8433 01563 //// +175 //// 174026 027 023 000 01
150830 1621N 06208W 8429 01567 //// +170 //// 174023 023 022 000 01
150900 1622N 06210W 8428 01567 //// +175 //// 175022 022 019 000 01
150930 1624N 06211W 8429 01565 //// +178 //// 179022 022 020 000 01
151000 1625N 06212W 8430 01564 //// +179 //// 177023 023 021 000 01
151030 1626N 06214W 8430 01563 //// +179 //// 177023 024 020 000 05
151100 1627N 06215W 8430 01562 //// +175 //// 180022 023 023 000 05
151130 1629N 06216W 8429 01562 //// +170 //// 176021 021 023 000 01
151200 1630N 06218W 8429 01560 //// +170 //// 180020 020 023 000 05
151230 1631N 06219W 8430 01559 //// +170 //// 186019 019 023 000 01
151300 1632N 06220W 8429 01560 //// +170 //// 192019 019 024 000 01
151330 1634N 06221W 8429 01560 //// +170 //// 193020 020 026 000 01
151400 1635N 06223W 8432 01557 //// +166 //// 194021 022 027 001 01
$$
;

[NDG]

Aric, she appears to be deepening quickly if that 29.59 verifies...Thats a substantial drop in one hour!

Probably that pressure reading is wrong, the recon passed just a few miles east of that island, they would had seen that pressure.

Saba Island to the northwest of St. Kitts is reporting 29.65/1004.06. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... 0Eustatius

Hmm, I see that as well, very interesting, recon is headed back there now, so lets see.

Conditions at: TNCE observed 21 August 2011 15:00 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.65 inches Hg (1004.0 mb)
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 36 MPH (31 knots; 16.1 m/s)
gusting to 54 MPH (47 knots; 24.4 m/s)
Visibility: missing
Ceiling: unknown
Clouds: missing
Present Weather: RA (rain)

[Javlin]

The north relocation brings in the possibility that Irene could track along the north coast of Hispaniola. That's not a good thing for those of us in Florida.

One would think but movement ATTM is due W I am thinking S of the islands.All the relocation did is move it to N and then W from there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Blown Away]

The N NHC track shift will traverse more of the island, but any slight N shift from here will put Irene over the flatter portions of the island.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm thinking that we are not done seeing center reformations. Before it is said and done we could very well see a track over or slightly north of PR and skirting the North coast of Hispaniola. For us here in South Florida that would not be good. As Aric has already said just because the center formed farther north the reasoning for the track remains unchanged. It will still follow the western edge of the ridge. A more gradual turn into South Florida with a possibly much stronger storm if it misses the islands.

SFT

[tolakram]

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wow. It looks like Irene is heading right for Puerto Rico. Most likely as a Cat1. I hope everyone there is prepared and safe.

[CronkPSU]

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 21, 2011
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...Irene expected to strengthen and pass near Puerto Rico tonight...




summary of 1100 am AST...1500 UTC...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...17.0n 63.2w
about 235 mi...375 km ESE of Ponce Puerto Rico
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...WNW or 285 degrees at 20 mph...32 km/h
minimum central pressure...1005 mb...29.68 inches




watches and warnings
--------------------
changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...


the Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico...Vieques...and Culebra
is changed to a Hurricane Warning.


A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands.


The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Warning to a Hurricane Warning for the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Cabo engano to Cabo Frances Viejo.


The tropical storm watch for Haiti is changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.


The government of the Bahamas has issued a tropical storm watch for
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.


Summary of watches and warnings in effect...


a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico...Vieques...and Culebra
* the Dominican Republic from the southern border with Haiti to Cabo
Frances Viejo on the north coast


a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands


a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Saba...St. Eustatius...St. Maarten...St. Martin...and St.
Barthelemy
* Antigua...Barbuda...St. Kitts...Nevis...Anguilla...Montserrat
* British Virgin Islands
* northern coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti border
eastward to Cabo Frances Viejo
* Haiti


a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands


for storm information specific to your area in the United
States...please monitor products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to
your area outside the United States...please monitor products
issued by your National meteorological service.




Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am AST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Irene was
located near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 63.2 west. Irene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/h...and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a
gradual decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track...Irene
will pass near Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday and approach the
Dominican Republic on Monday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so...and Irene could become a hurricane on Monday.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240
km...mainly to the north of the center.


An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 1007 mb...29.74 inches.




Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the Leeward Islands
today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin this
afternoon in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico...and in the
Dominican Republic early Monday. Hurricane conditions are
expected over Puerto Rico...Vieques...and Culebra tonight...and over
the Dominican Republic on Monday.


Rainfall...Irene is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 7 inches in the Leeward Islands...Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches.
Total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are possible across
the Dominican Republic and Haiti...with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides in areas of steep terrain.


Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of the Dominican
Republic in the Hurricane Warning area. A storm surge of 1 to 3
feet above normal tide levels is expected along the coast of Puerto
Rico...as well as in the Tropical Storm Warning area. Near the
coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.




Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory...500 PM AST.


$$
Forecaster Pasch



Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 21, 2011
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the cloud pattern of Irene is characterized by well-defined deep
convective banding features over the northern semicircle. The storm
still lacks much deep convection...or strong winds...over the
southern portion of the circulation. An Air Force hurricane hunter
aircraft investigating Irene measured peak 850 mb flight-level
winds of 53 kt so far...which supports keeping the intensity at 45
kt for this advisory. Since an upper-level anticyclone is
established over the tropical cyclone and the system will be moving
over warm waters...intensification seems likely and Irene is
forecast to become a hurricane by the time it reaches Hispaniola.
After that...the intensity forecast is subject to more than the
usual level of uncertainty...as it depends very much on how Irene
will interact with the mountainous land masses of Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba over the next few days. If the center moves more over
the water than indicated in the current forecast...Irene will
likely become stronger than shown here.

The storm is being steered west-northwestward...285/17...by the flow
on the south side of a mid-level subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic. Over the next few days...a couple of troughs are forecast
to create a weakness in the ridge near the southeast U.S.
Coast...which should induce a turn toward the northwest. There is a
fair amount of spread in the track guidance models...especially at
days 4 to 5. For example...the GFDL model takes Irene to the west
of the Florida Peninsula while the HWRF model takes it through the
northwestern Bahamas. Interests in Florida are advised not to focus
on the exact forecast track because of the inherent uncertainties
in longer-range forecasts.


Forecast positions and Max winds


init 21/1500z 17.0n 63.2w 45 kt 50 mph
12h 22/0000z 17.5n 65.5w 55 kt 65 mph
24h 22/1200z 18.2n 68.2w 65 kt 75 mph
36h 23/0000z 18.9n 70.9w 50 kt 60 mph...inland
48h 23/1200z 19.6n 73.3w 45 kt 50 mph...inland
72h 24/1200z 21.5n 76.5w 50 kt 60 mph...over water
96h 25/1200z 24.0n 79.0w 65 kt 75 mph
120h 26/1200z 27.0n 81.5w 50 kt 60 mph...inland


$$
forecaster Pasch

[jinftl]

Still looks like this could bring ts conditions/strong ts conditions to most of the peninsula...with hurricane conditions limited right at the point of landfall in south fla....this forecast could change...but it hasn't changed much at all since 5am, except to push the timing of the event up 6-12 hours earlier (thursday into friday).

While not a devestating event if this forecast holds....this could knock power out to millions.

[Tampa_God]

Correct me if im wrong but weve seen systems stronger weaken alot...even when they just skirt the n.Coast of hispanola. However if it misses cuba this thing could bomb in se bahamas after hispanola

If it skirts N. Hispaniola, it will still weaken to around a 55 mph storm, that's if we have around a 75 mph to 80 mph hurricane before. The land interaction will still have an affect, but the center will not go over the more mountainous areas of Hispaniola.

[Aric Dunn]

Then the next hour... the center passes the pressure goes back up.. pretty obvious..


11 AM (15) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.71 (1006) S 9
10 AM (14) Aug 21 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.59 (1002) S 9 light rain
9 AM (13) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) ENE 9 rain showers
8 AM (12) Aug 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NE 13 heavy rain
7 AM (11) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 16 rain

[NDG]

BTW, how's the wildlife in S FL, here at my house I can't hear not one bird sing this morning, my parokeets and cokatiels have been unually quiet this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like its about to start deepening. the dry air is gone.. at the rotational dynamics of the relocation are almost complete. the center now appears to have slowed as the convection wraps around the NW and west side this will change the angular momentum and should aid in the west and sw inflow. should see a good burst of convection shortly.