ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[wxman57]

Yes, Jeff is Jeff Lindner - with the Harris County Flood Control District here in Houston.

[CypressMike]

This is a different Jeff isn't it? Jeff Masters writes the blog on Weather Underground, but I believe the Jeff referenced here is local to the Houston area. Unfortunately, I cannot remember his last name.

Jeff Linder...that's it.

[Tireman4]

Yes, Jeff is Jeff Lindner - with the Harris County Flood Control District here in Houston.

That is what I thought. I also thought I had it wrong, so I erased it.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 271850
XXAA 77184 99257 70897 08159 99013 29650 06003 00118 28643 05005
92807 22826 09507 85540 18856 12505 70182 09860 02003 50590 04962
12509 40762 15368 10011 88999 77999
31313 09608 81749
61616 AF300 01DDA INVEST OB 05
62626 SPL 2573N08975W 1800 MBL WND 06005 AEV 20802 DLM WND 08505
013393 WL150 05504 083 REL 2573N08974W 174936 SPG 2573N08975W 175
958 =
XXBB 77188 99257 70897 08159 00013 29650 11937 23418 22850 18856
33780 14441 44708 10665 55701 10060 66658 07263 77622 04058 88616
03662 99599 02459 11578 01469 22552 00962 33531 02565 44522 03159
55514 03764 66503 04761 77464 07962 88448 09560 99410 13568 11393
16569
21212 00013 06003 11924 09507 22850 12505 33534 10510 44511 13511
55449 08511 66406 09012 77393 11509
31313 09608 81749
61616 AF300 01DDA INVEST OB 05
62626 SPL 2573N08975W 1800 MBL WND 06005 AEV 20802 DLM WND 08505
013393 WL150 05504 083 REL 2573N08974W 174936 SPG 2573N08975W 175
958 =
;

[Aric Dunn]

Im seeing some outflow starting on the NW side could be the break in the shear starting.... that its not moving all to fast today..

[Dave]

303
URNT15 KNHC 271857
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 13 20110727
184800 2232N 08747W 9776 00289 0104 +240 +165 031006 007 006 001 00
184830 2231N 08746W 9773 00292 0104 +240 +165 038006 007 007 002 00
184900 2230N 08744W 9774 00289 0103 +240 +165 038008 008 009 000 00
184930 2229N 08742W 9774 00289 0103 +240 +164 028008 009 011 001 00
185000 2228N 08741W 9774 00290 0103 +240 +164 033009 010 012 001 00
185030 2227N 08739W 9774 00290 0104 +240 +164 037011 011 013 001 00
185100 2226N 08738W 9759 00304 0104 +236 +164 040011 012 017 001 00
185130 2225N 08736W 9772 00293 0105 +236 +163 038011 012 014 001 00
185200 2224N 08734W 9766 00298 0104 +235 +163 043012 013 018 000 00
185230 2223N 08733W 9772 00293 0104 +235 +162 048013 013 017 001 03
185300 2222N 08731W 9768 00294 0105 +228 +162 048012 014 024 007 03
185330 2221N 08730W 9772 00290 0104 +231 +161 046011 012 018 001 00
185400 2220N 08728W 9767 00296 0103 +231 +158 045012 013 019 000 00
185430 2218N 08727W 9771 00292 0102 +233 +156 042011 011 016 001 00
185500 2217N 08725W 9770 00292 0100 +233 +156 042009 010 013 000 00
185530 2216N 08724W 9769 00289 0099 +229 +156 051010 010 017 000 00
185600 2215N 08722W 9770 00287 0097 +228 +157 055009 010 014 001 00
185630 2214N 08721W 9769 00288 0096 +229 +156 050008 009 013 000 03
185700 2213N 08719W 9768 00287 0094 +229 +155 045008 008 009 000 00
185730 2212N 08717W 9752 00301 0093 +229 +156 047008 008 008 002 00
$$
;

[SunnyThoughts]

Starting to see a little bit of white inside the central part of the system indicating most extreme cloud tops.http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[SunnyThoughts]

[KWT]

Recon not finding anything too impressive windwise thus far, mind you they are heading towards the estimated center so we'll see if it increases, may well be a lopsided windfield as well with the stronger winds to the south of the center due to the stronger convection there...

[beoumont]

They are flying at under 1000 ft. altitude?

Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 289 meters (~ 948 feet)

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

Recon not finding anything too impressive windwise thus far, mind you they are heading towards the estimated center so we'll see if it increases, may well be a lopsided windfield as well with the stronger winds to the south of the center due to the stronger convection there...

Plane is in clear air northwest of the small low center.

[RL3AO]

They are flying at under 1000 ft. altitude?

Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 289 meters (~ 948 feet)

Yep.

[JTE50]

800
WHXX01 KWBC 271851
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1851 UTC WED JUL 27 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110727 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110727 1800 110728 0600 110728 1800 110729 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.3N 87.3W 23.0N 89.1W 24.0N 91.2W 24.8N 93.2W
BAMD 22.3N 87.3W 22.9N 89.0W 23.5N 91.0W 24.1N 93.1W
BAMM 22.3N 87.3W 23.0N 89.0W 23.9N 90.9W 24.7N 92.8W
LBAR 22.3N 87.3W 23.2N 89.1W 24.3N 91.3W 25.4N 93.6W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110729 1800 110730 1800 110731 1800 110801 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.7N 95.3W 27.1N 99.6W 28.4N 104.0W 29.6N 107.6W
BAMD 24.6N 95.4W 25.4N 100.4W 26.2N 105.6W 27.6N 110.7W
BAMM 25.5N 95.1W 27.1N 99.6W 28.8N 104.1W 30.5N 107.5W
LBAR 26.5N 95.9W 28.7N 100.2W 30.9N 104.1W 33.4N 105.7W
SHIP 56KTS 63KTS 68KTS 68KTS
DSHP 56KTS 34KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.3N LONCUR = 87.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.4N LONM12 = 85.6W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 20.8N LONM24 = 83.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 110NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Aric Dunn]

se QUAD will have the highest winds.

[HurricaneRobert]

Think it will be anything like this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Erin_(2007)

[NDG]

Recon not finding anything too impressive windwise thus far, mind you they are heading towards the estimated center so we'll see if it increases, may well be a lopsided windfield as well with the stronger winds to the south of the center due to the stronger convection there...

Plane is in clear air northwest of the small low center.

I agree, is pretty much deep convection free the NW quadrant.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Model tracks.

[Dave]

057
URNT15 KNHC 271908
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 14 20110727
185800 2211N 08716W 9751 00300 0093 +225 +156 044006 008 011 000 00
185830 2210N 08714W 9753 00298 0092 +229 +154 027006 006 006 000 03
185900 2209N 08713W 9751 00299 0090 +232 +153 348005 006 004 001 00
185930 2208N 08711W 9750 00296 0088 +236 +153 314007 008 006 000 00
190000 2207N 08710W 9755 00292 0087 +227 +154 301011 013 008 001 00
190030 2205N 08708W 9750 00295 0086 +225 +156 299013 014 011 003 00
190100 2204N 08706W 9754 00290 0085 +227 +156 301018 019 013 004 00
190130 2203N 08705W 9753 00288 0081 +228 +157 303020 023 020 004 00
190200 2203N 08705W 9753 00288 0077 +226 +157 297023 023 024 006 00
190230 2201N 08702W 9733 00301 0075 +228 +157 285026 028 025 004 00
190300 2200N 08700W 9737 00295 0071 +238 +156 280029 030 023 003 03
190330 2159N 08659W 9729 00298 0066 +247 +155 271033 034 028 003 00
190400 2158N 08657W 9741 00285 0064 +245 +155 262036 038 030 000 03
190430 2156N 08656W 9732 00296 0066 +241 +157 264039 040 028 001 00
190500 2155N 08655W 9735 00298 0071 +235 +158 267038 039 026 002 00
190530 2153N 08654W 9741 00298 0078 +228 +157 262035 036 021 003 00
190600 2152N 08653W 9740 00301 0082 +221 +156 261033 033 024 005 00
190630 2151N 08652W 9736 00305 0084 +218 +153 259033 033 024 006 00
190700 2149N 08651W 9733 00310 0086 +221 +150 256035 038 025 009 03
190730 2148N 08650W 9743 00300 0091 +202 +147 250038 039 022 017 03
$$
;

1006.4 mb; 40 kts flight level.

[Houstonia]

We are so not ready... I'm not talking about me or my family - all we need are batteries and to make sure there is fuel for the generator. I'm talking about citywide. They have not cut any of the trees back in our neighborhood - I hate it when they do because they do such a terrible hacking job, but I understand the need for it. It's so dry, that I'm worried that the trees are just going to fall over at the first heavy wind.

Plus, there is the mindset that we just had Ike - no way we're going to get another hurricane very soon.

But it only takes a strong TS or a Cat 1 to blow trees down and cause another bout of widespread power outages. And THIS year something tells me we are NOT going to get lucky with a big cold front coming directly afterward like with Ike.

Update from jeff.

Tropical cyclone developing in the SE Gulf of Mexico a threat to the Texas coast.

Since we are already close to 60 hours out from landfall, tropical storm or hurricane watches may be issued for the TX coast with either the 400pm or 1000pm NHC advisory package assuming the plane finds a closed low level circulation. Onset of tropical storm force winds along the TX coast would be sometime in the late afternoon or early evening hours on Friday with increasing rainbands during the day on Friday spreading inland. Still a bit early to try and nail down the greatest area for impact, but the region between roughly Galveston Island to Corpus Christi appears in the greatest threat zone.