ATL: IRENE - Models

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1921 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:01 pm

Will it go more W or E from this point on?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1922 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:02 pm

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60 Hrs..Landfall #1
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1923 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:04 pm

At 60 hours nearly identical position as the 18z run. Weakening ensues as it interacts with land.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1924 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:04 pm

60 hrs over Haiti Peninsula, it can survive that if it stays just N of Cuba it may bomb!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1925 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:04 pm

54H Saved

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1926 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:05 pm

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66...
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#1927 Postby Kory » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:06 pm

That Texas ridge is holding very strong. I don't think its going to make it to the central Gulf. Just to the west of the Peninsula of Florida is most likely the farthest west its going to get on this run.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1928 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:06 pm

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72 Hr
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1929 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:06 pm

66H saved

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1930 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:07 pm

Drifting, big hole in ridge now.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1931 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:07 pm

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78 Hr
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Re:

#1932 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:07 pm

Kory wrote:That Texas ridge is holding very strong. I don't think its going to make it to the central Gulf. Just to the west of the Peninsula of Florida is most likely the farthest west its going to get on this run.


give it time.... :D
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1933 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:08 pm

Tad north then 18z run @ 78hrs.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1934 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:09 pm

78 hrs, getting stronger.
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#1935 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:09 pm

At 78 hours position is again very close to the 18z run at the same time frame. It is stronger in this run however.
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Re: Re:

#1936 Postby Kory » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:09 pm

ROCK wrote:
Kory wrote:That Texas ridge is holding very strong. I don't think its going to make it to the central Gulf. Just to the west of the Peninsula of Florida is most likely the farthest west its going to get on this run.


give it time.... :D

If I was holding my breath on this ridge moving, I'd be dead by now. Large gap in the ridge...with its strength I'm surprised it isn't moving farther north.
Last edited by Kory on Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1937 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:10 pm

I know that the models have been consistent in making this a Florida threat down the road,
but many times before we have seen them overestimate the strengths of troughs. Katrina
was originally forecasted to come close to the West coast (after hitting S. FL) as it went into the Gulf but the models
went much further west 3 days before landfall....same thing with Ivan-- originally FL Peninsula
and then west to the panhandle/MS border...Fay and Charley were exceptions to this
trend so we will see...if the models start shifting west away from FL I will feel better...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1938 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:10 pm

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84 Hr
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1939 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:10 pm

84 hrs, over Cuba.
90 hrs near Cuba N coast.
Last edited by Blown Away on Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1940 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:11 pm

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90 Hrs Hello Water
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