ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[HenkL]

Re: pressure on 42361 platform (Auger)

Most land stations report both pressure at station height as well as calculated SLP. This platform only reports SLP, so I have to take their values as they are.
Another platform to the east reported 1003.1 and a ship to the south reported 1003.6.
So I guess the reported 1001.7 could be real.

Within an hour a new recon should give answers.

[baygirl_1]

Report from Mobile: It's been raining most of the day (since around 9AM). The rain's been light with some bursts of heavier rain. They're telling us to expect 12-15 inches thru Sun. evening. Then we may have tropical storm conditions on Monday night. The Gulf looks very angry from the TV news live shots from Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores. This is shaping up to be a miserable holiday weekend! If these teenagers can't get to the movies or their friends' houses or the mall... well, I'm going to be at my wit's end trying to keep them from being pains in our necks while we're "trapped" at home!

[jabman98]

There's a lot of private messages, chats, and texting going on between Texans on here. Trust me when I say you are not the only one losing it!!

Much gnashing off teeth and tearing of hair, too! I was just out and saw dark, gray, ominous looking clouds towards the east. Of course they're nowhere near where I am. Grrr....

That image a few posts back is incredible. It looks like the Sabine river is a giant wall and nothing can get past it. Ditto the Texas coast. It's like we've got some sort of magic shield on top of us that repels all water. Crazy stuff.

[SunnyThoughts]

Report from Mobile: It's been raining most of the day (since around 9AM). The rain's been light with some bursts of heavier rain. They're telling us to expect 12-15 inches thru Sun. evening. Then we may have tropical storm conditions on Monday night. The Gulf looks very angry from the TV news live shots from Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores. This is shaping up to be a miserable holiday weekend! If these teenagers can't get to the movies or their friends' houses or the mall... well, I'm going to be at my wit's end trying to keep them from being pains in our necks while we're "trapped" at home!

hahaha, I feel your pain. I have one of those teenagers at home also. Haven't seen much rain here today just to the east of Pensacola...definitely cloudy all day with no sun at all. Been great on the A/c and my wallet considering the power bills lately. Stay safe and be careful out on the roads..messy nasty weekend for sure. I sure wish we could send some rain towards all our neighbors in Texas. Hopefully you guys get some relief there soon.

[perk]

move it along already and get out Lee....you poor excuse for a TC. Let get a real player in here....

Rock i know how you feel, Don was a bummer but it had the life sucked out of it quickly,but this sorry jackwagon Lee is gonna meander around in the GOM for days taunting us southeast gomers before his sorry rear end moves to the northeast giving Louisiana all the rain.

[BigB0882]

I see people posting things in the recon thread but I can't make out any of it, I would probably have a better chance reading Chinese! lol

[Annie Oakley]

What time is the next mission please....thanks in advance.

[Kennethb]

Check out the NCEP latest QPF through next Wednesday. Check out where the 23 inch estimate is located:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

[lostsole]

Report from Mobile: It's been raining most of the day (since around 9AM). The rain's been light with some bursts of heavier rain. They're telling us to expect 12-15 inches thru Sun. evening. Then we may have tropical storm conditions on Monday night. The Gulf looks very angry from the TV news live shots from Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores. This is shaping up to be a miserable holiday weekend! If these teenagers can't get to the movies or their friends' houses or the mall... well, I'm going to be at my wit's end trying to keep them from being pains in our necks while we're "trapped" at home!

hahaha, I feel your pain. I have one of those teenagers at home also. Haven't seen much rain here today just to the east of Pensacola...definitely cloudy all day with no sun at all. Been great on the A/c and my wallet considering the power bills lately. Stay safe and be careful out on the roads..messy nasty weekend for sure. I sure wish we could send some rain towards all our neighbors in Texas. Hopefully you guys get some relief there soon.

I was out on the beach and encountered a nasty rain band about 2 oclock, with 30+ gusts and torrential rain. The Gulf is pretty churned up, very nasty, the waves are not real big, but it is very very rough looking. I am still puzzled by this thing being a TS, as it looks terrible, like an open wave in the Caribbean. Wonder if it will ever get together, not that I want it to, I am fine with a mess of a storm.

[Annie Oakley]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 23:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 13
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 23:32Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 29.1N 90.2W
Location: 61 miles (98 km) to the S (188°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,520 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 140° at 21 knots (From the SE at ~ 24.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,465 geopotential meters

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022343
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 07 20110902
233400 2902N 09017W 8430 01531 //// +154 //// 142021 022 /// /// 05
233430 2901N 09019W 8426 01535 //// +149 //// 137024 025 /// /// 05
233500 2900N 09020W 8438 01522 //// +166 //// 139027 028 /// /// 05
233530 2859N 09021W 8429 01531 //// +166 //// 137027 027 /// /// 05
233600 2857N 09023W 8431 01528 //// +165 //// 131025 026 /// /// 05
233630 2856N 09024W 8429 01530 //// +163 //// 125027 027 /// /// 05
233700 2855N 09025W 8437 01521 //// +148 //// 130029 029 037 010 05
233730 2854N 09027W 8432 01527 //// +142 //// 130029 031 048 026 05
233800 2853N 09028W 8428 01525 //// +144 //// 127029 030 058 032 01
233830 2852N 09029W 8422 01530 //// +144 //// 125027 029 059 061 05
233900 2850N 09031W 8457 01496 //// +141 //// 155034 038 059 047 01
233930 2849N 09032W 8427 01525 //// +136 //// 143034 036 060 047 01
234000 2848N 09033W 8422 01531 //// +133 //// 145037 038 057 033 05
234030 2847N 09035W 8429 01519 //// +140 //// 147035 038 046 019 01
234100 2846N 09036W 8425 01524 //// +152 //// 158021 026 041 011 01
234130 2845N 09037W 8426 01519 //// +165 //// 184007 009 039 010 05
234200 2844N 09038W 8428 01526 //// +163 //// 152010 018 037 009 01
234230 2843N 09040W 8425 01521 //// +153 //// 153018 019 036 010 01
234300 2842N 09041W 8431 01517 //// +147 //// 167015 017 040 013 01
234330 2840N 09042W 8431 01521 //// +162 //// 157014 014 039 009 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...TROPICAL STORM LEE INCHING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 91.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY
ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN ELEVATED
COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING STATION AT SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA
RECENTLY MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH.
A WIND GUST TO 38 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN BOOTHVILLE
LOUISIANA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE WARNING AREA OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN THESE AREAS. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 91.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[BigA]

Sorry, don't know how to post this in the desired format, but a dropsonde found a pressure of 1003 over 150 miles SW of the center. 25.6N 92.7W

[Kennethb]

Check out the latest NCEP QPF through next Wednesday. Check out the location of the 23 inch estimate:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022353
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 08 20110902
234400 2839N 09044W 8429 01521 //// +169 //// 154017 018 035 006 01
234430 2838N 09045W 8428 01519 //// +170 //// 156017 018 032 004 01
234500 2837N 09046W 8434 01513 //// +169 //// 153018 019 032 005 01
234530 2836N 09048W 8424 01524 //// +147 //// 142021 023 034 012 01
234600 2835N 09049W 8430 01516 //// +165 //// 137022 023 029 007 01
234630 2834N 09050W 8434 01514 //// +178 //// 146021 022 023 000 01
234700 2832N 09051W 8431 01516 //// +178 //// 150020 022 026 001 01
234730 2831N 09053W 8428 01517 //// +166 //// 154018 020 025 004 01
234800 2830N 09054W 8430 01515 //// +179 //// 150023 025 024 001 01
234830 2829N 09055W 8429 01515 //// +178 //// 160023 025 028 003 01
234900 2828N 09057W 8427 01515 //// +166 //// 143019 023 043 009 01
234930 2827N 09058W 8432 01509 //// +175 //// 123010 012 045 009 01
235000 2826N 09059W 8440 01502 //// +159 //// 126010 013 045 022 05
235030 2825N 09101W 8429 01515 //// +143 //// 146012 016 049 032 05
235100 2823N 09102W 8423 01515 //// +145 //// 161018 020 050 027 05
235130 2822N 09103W 8429 01509 //// +167 //// 159018 019 031 005 01
235200 2821N 09104W 8433 01504 //// +167 //// 156014 015 031 004 01
235230 2820N 09106W 8427 01509 //// +161 //// 152012 014 030 008 01
235300 2819N 09107W 8434 01505 //// +161 //// 146016 020 028 006 01
235330 2818N 09108W 8425 01511 //// +171 //// 147020 022 026 005 01
$$

[jabman98]

Check out the latest NCEP QPF through next Wednesday. Check out the location of the 23 inch estimate:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

That's over five days, though, right? The pumps just might be able to keep up if they get a break here or there with that. Still...not good.

[gone2beach]

Check out the latest NCEP QPF through next Wednesday. Check out the location of the 23 inch estimate:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

We are just east of that spot...1.05" this AM, 0.50 since 7 AM central time.

[tailgater]

Looks like it might have relocated to the north of last position.

[Annie Oakley]

I am posting recon but I can't do the graphics.
Nor am I any good at interpretation so chime in if you see something notable. Except anyone from Texas. (JK)
Thanks