ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

Think the light just went on in recon's head.

I was beginning to wonder if they had been drinking before takeoff.

finally going to it... geezz..

[northtxboy]

If someone can send me a pm and explain in detail how to do the pics or obs I can also help with it one day!!

[cycloneye]

Think the light just went on in recon's head.

I was beginning to wonder if they had been drinking before takeoff.

finally going to it... geezz..

There they go.

[RL3AO]

057
URNT15 KNHC 211544
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 33 20110821
153430 1711N 06305W 8428 01533 //// +170 //// 178026 027 /// /// 05
153500 1712N 06303W 8430 01530 //// +170 //// 173028 029 /// /// 05
153530 1714N 06302W 8428 01533 //// +170 //// 172029 030 /// /// 05
153600 1715N 06301W 8432 01528 //// +165 //// 170029 029 /// /// 05
153630 1717N 06300W 8430 01530 //// +166 //// 164029 030 /// /// 05
153700 1718N 06259W 8432 01528 //// +163 //// 157036 038 /// /// 05
153730 1720N 06258W 8429 01529 //// +164 //// 155039 040 /// /// 05
153800 1720N 06258W 8429 01529 //// +170 //// 153040 041 /// /// 05
153830 1723N 06256W 8430 01533 //// +167 //// 154040 040 /// /// 05
153900 1724N 06255W 8429 01535 //// +163 //// 149037 038 /// /// 05
153930 1726N 06254W 8429 01537 //// +166 //// 147037 038 /// /// 05
154000 1727N 06253W 8428 01539 //// +152 //// 146035 036 /// /// 05
154030 1728N 06252W 8421 01545 //// +155 //// 145034 035 /// /// 05
154100 1729N 06251W 8426 01540 //// +144 //// 146033 035 /// /// 05
154130 1730N 06249W 8440 01523 //// +135 //// 141039 043 /// /// 05
154200 1731N 06248W 8427 01540 //// +134 //// 144050 051 /// /// 05
154230 1732N 06247W 8427 01541 //// +151 //// 144050 051 048 003 01
154300 1733N 06245W 8430 01541 //// +153 //// 141053 054 045 006 01
154330 1734N 06244W 8429 01545 //// +148 //// 137052 053 046 005 01
154400 1735N 06243W 8434 01541 //// +149 //// 137055 056 044 004 01
$$
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[SFLcane]

IMO, as little as a 60 mile shift N in the track will keep Irene skirting N coast of Hispaniola and increase intensity forecast.

I think it may just stay above or skirt hispaniola on its WNW heading which will make intensity forecast interesting.

[Sanibel]

I'm trying to figure if this fast forward speed will help it get by Hispaniola better and make a run-up on Florida.

Even though the storm might be slightly tilted to the NNE it looks like this will catch a bigger corner of Puerto Rico than they are predicting.

The day 5 track hasn't changed in 48 hours. Looks like we are going to get our bushes shaken. Need to get some extra water. Already have a full pack of Duracell "D" batteries.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Battlebrick]

56 kts FL

[RL3AO]

They missed it again.

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

They could be sampling the NE quad then hopefully come back through ..

[jinftl]

The timetable has been moved up a bit...what was at the 5am advisory a late night Thursday/Friday event for South Florida now could be a Thursday day into Friday morning event. Could mean watches for the area issued Tuesday instead of Wednesday - if the track forecast holds.

I'm trying to figure if this fast forward speed will help it get by Hispaniola better and make a run-up on Florida.

Even though the storm might be slightly tilted to the NNE it looks like this will catch a bigger corner of Puerto Rico than they are predicting.

The day 5 track hasn't changed in 48 hours. Looks like we are going to get our bushes shaken. Need to get some extra water. Already have a full pack of Duracell "D" batteries.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS north of Hispaniola..

[RL3AO]

Winds are from the wrong direction for that to the actual center.

[JTE50]

she looks to be stair stepping to me....with PR right in the way....be safe Luis...

Looks that way to me too looking at the visible sat loop. Get ready Puerto Rico folks.

[Aric Dunn]

Winds are from the wrong direction for that to the actual center.

yeah that is completely wrong.. center is straight north of your circle.

[jinftl]

NWS Miami forecast now shows conditions deteriorating by Wednesday night in the area.


NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 11:47 am EDT Aug 21, 2011

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Windy, with a east wind between 13 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 83. Windy, with a east wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87.

Thursday Night: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy and windy, with a low around 81.

[flamingosun]

BTW, how's the wildlife in S FL, here at my house I can't hear not one bird sing this morning, my parokeets and cokatiels have been unually quiet this morning.

No bird sounds here on Merritt Island, either. But the crickets are going ninety to nothing.

[Aric Dunn]

with some of the recent Fl winds.. they could go 55mph

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 211554
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 34 20110821
154430 1736N 06241W 8424 01553 //// +138 //// 140051 053 047 010 01
154500 1737N 06240W 8435 01542 //// +132 //// 134052 054 046 010 01
154530 1738N 06239W 8424 01556 //// +136 //// 132051 052 042 009 01
154600 1738N 06237W 8436 01546 //// +149 //// 135053 053 041 004 01
154630 1739N 06236W 8429 01554 //// +160 //// 133052 052 041 002 01
154700 1740N 06235W 8429 01556 //// +161 //// 134050 050 041 001 01
154730 1741N 06233W 8429 01557 //// +165 //// 135049 050 040 002 01
154800 1742N 06232W 8430 01556 //// +166 //// 135048 049 040 001 05
154830 1743N 06231W 8430 01557 //// +167 //// 134046 047 037 002 01
154900 1744N 06230W 8429 01557 //// +167 //// 136044 045 040 002 01
154930 1745N 06228W 8432 01556 //// +168 //// 136047 047 040 000 05
155000 1746N 06227W 8430 01559 //// +166 //// 136047 048 039 001 05
155030 1747N 06226W 8429 01561 //// +165 //// 138047 047 038 001 01
155100 1747N 06224W 8429 01561 //// +165 //// 138046 047 037 000 05
155130 1748N 06223W 8430 01561 //// +165 //// 137047 047 036 001 05
155200 1749N 06222W 8426 01565 //// +165 //// 137048 049 036 001 01
155230 1750N 06220W 8431 01561 //// +165 //// 137046 046 037 001 05
155300 1751N 06219W 8430 01562 //// +168 //// 139047 047 036 001 01
155330 1752N 06218W 8429 01562 //// +168 //// 139047 048 036 001 05
155400 1753N 06216W 8429 01563 //// +170 //// 140047 048 035 001 01
$$
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