ATL: IRENE - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1941 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:11 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:I know that the models have been consistent in making this a Florida threat down the road,
but many times before we have seen them overestimate the strengths of troughs. Katrina
was originally forecasted to come close to the West coast (after hitting S. FL) as it went into the Gulf but the models
went much further west 3 days before landfall....same thing with Ivan-- originally FL Peninsula
and then west to the panhandle/MS border...Fay and Charley were exceptions to this
trend so we will see...if the models start shifting west away from FL I will feel better...



you forgot about IKE.... :wink:
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1942 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:11 pm

84H saved

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1943 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:12 pm

At 90 hours, definitely stronger then 18z and also it has jumped north a bit. Now on the northern coast of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1944 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:12 pm

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96 Hr Bomb time
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1945 Postby SeminoleWind » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:13 pm

SFLcane wrote:Tad north then 18z run @ 78hrs.


Agreed.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1946 Postby red herring » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:14 pm

:uarrow:
yep
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1947 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:14 pm

Image

102 Hr
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#1948 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:14 pm

looks a little for this run... as expected.
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#1949 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:14 pm

Haiti/DR didn't do much (if anything) to it....
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1950 Postby blp » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:15 pm

Clear weakness between the two monster ridges. Has nowhere to go but through the tunnel.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1951 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:16 pm

Gonna miss SFL to the east??
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#1952 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:16 pm

Watch for the TX ridge to begin to head back W
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1953 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:16 pm

Image

108 Hr ...: /
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1954 Postby bella_may » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:16 pm

I'm on the edge of my seat to see if it makes it to the gulf LOL
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Re:

#1955 Postby jpigott » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:16 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:looks a little for this run... as expected.


Yep. Not seeing the west shift some of the pro-mets thought we might see with the GFS this run
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#1956 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:16 pm

So much for the shift west :lol:
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1957 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:16 pm

GFS 111hr:

heading towards South Florida again

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1958 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:16 pm

SFLcane wrote:Gonna miss SFL to the east??



No......that ridge will pull back WEST...over the plains.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1959 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:16 pm

96H saved. Bombing over Cuba ... *golf clap* Keep in mind the intensity should be considered junk when over land.

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Re:

#1960 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:17 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Haiti/DR didn't do much (if anything) to it....

Went over Haiti Peninsula and E Cuba, may miss SFL to the E??? Just like HWRF!
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