ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 312328
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 25 20110731
190730 1359N 05144W 9771 00315 0130 +225 +198 131017 017 /// /// 03
190800 1401N 05145W 9769 00317 0130 +225 +198 133018 018 /// /// 03
190830 1402N 05146W 9770 00316 0131 +225 +199 131017 018 /// /// 03
190900 1404N 05148W 9773 00315 0131 +225 +199 129017 018 /// /// 03
190930 1405N 05149W 9771 00315 0131 +225 +199 132018 018 /// /// 03
191000 1407N 05150W 9772 00315 0131 +225 +200 131018 019 /// /// 03
191030 1409N 05152W 9769 00317 0132 +225 +200 131019 019 /// /// 03
191100 1410N 05153W 9763 00327 0135 +208 +200 142007 017 /// /// 03
191130 1412N 05154W 9767 00314 //// +169 //// 192009 012 /// /// 05
191200 1413N 05156W 9775 00311 //// +161 //// 163017 022 /// /// 05
191230 1415N 05157W 9763 00323 0137 +170 //// 134021 026 /// /// 05
191300 1416N 05158W 9759 00326 0136 +177 +165 135019 021 /// /// 03
191330 1418N 05200W 9775 00311 0135 +180 +160 127017 018 /// /// 03
191400 1420N 05201W 9773 00313 0135 +184 +157 141018 020 /// /// 03
191430 1421N 05202W 9772 00314 0134 +188 +156 138020 021 /// /// 03
191500 1423N 05204W 9775 00310 0135 +185 +154 135022 023 /// /// 03
191530 1424N 05205W 9770 00315 0132 +206 +154 139020 020 /// /// 03
191600 1426N 05206W 9770 00314 0132 +203 +153 156023 026 /// /// 03
191630 1428N 05208W 9767 00317 0132 +205 +153 156022 024 /// /// 03
191700 1428N 05210W 9777 00308 0131 +207 +152 150021 022 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Hurricaneman]

looks like they didnt find any kind of low pressure at the surface or if they did, it wasnt well defined

[SouthFLTropics]

They'll stay with 100% for now...especially given the satellite presentation. I think if I was in the islands I would be preparing for at least a TS at this time even though no watches or warnings have been issued. This thing may try to spin up right on top of them. The only good thing about that is there will be plenty of Obs on the ground that the recon flights won't be "as important".

SFT

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 312330
97779 16574 10150 57518 76200 06016 69733 /5759
RMK AF304 01EEA INVEST OB 04
;


000
URNT11 KNHC 312329
97779 16244 10159 60219 76200 99005 69748 /5760
RMK AF304 01EEA INVEST OB 03

[Recurve]

18Z nogaps rolling in...Initialization show both vorts and they dumbell into one..


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Ain't that cute. Tracks towards central Cuba touching a lot of real estate on the way. And if I read the SLP right, reaches south florida as no more than a rain event.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 312329
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 26 20110731
191730 1429N 05211W 9765 00319 0130 +210 +152 142022 023 /// /// 03
191800 1430N 05213W 9773 00311 0129 +215 +153 144022 022 /// /// 03
191830 1431N 05215W 9770 00312 0128 +216 +154 141022 023 /// /// 03
191900 1432N 05217W 9779 00304 0130 +206 +158 138023 024 /// /// 03
191930 1432N 05219W 9786 00298 0133 +174 +161 154022 023 /// /// 03
192000 1433N 05221W 9922 00176 0127 +209 +160 151020 021 /// /// 03
192030 1434N 05223W 9908 00187 0126 +210 +159 148021 022 /// /// 03
192100 1435N 05225W 9914 00181 0125 +214 +159 146020 021 /// /// 03
192130 1436N 05227W 9916 00180 0126 +197 +160 150023 023 /// /// 03
192200 1437N 05229W 9907 00187 0125 +198 +161 142025 025 /// /// 03
192230 1437N 05231W 9918 00176 0124 +195 +161 139027 029 /// /// 03
192300 1438N 05233W 9912 00180 0122 +199 +162 137031 032 /// /// 03
192330 1439N 05235W 9910 00183 0122 +211 +162 135027 031 /// /// 03
192400 1440N 05237W 9918 00175 0120 +226 +164 138021 021 /// /// 03
192430 1441N 05239W 9913 00179 0119 +224 +167 135023 023 /// /// 03
192500 1442N 05240W 9915 00179 0119 +229 +171 135022 023 /// /// 03
192530 1442N 05242W 9914 00177 0118 +231 +176 139023 024 /// /// 03
192600 1443N 05244W 9913 00180 0118 +230 +182 139022 022 /// /// 03
192630 1444N 05246W 9912 00177 0118 +209 +187 145023 025 /// /// 03
192700 1445N 05248W 9908 00183 0119 +202 +189 156017 023 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Ground_Zero_92]

Wow...thats a bit too close for comfort...

Agreed

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 312331
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 27 20110731
192730 1446N 05250W 9917 00172 0116 +228 +187 177014 015 /// /// 03
192800 1446N 05252W 9914 00176 0116 +222 +185 174016 017 /// /// 03
192830 1447N 05254W 9912 00176 0117 +195 +185 168016 017 /// /// 03
192900 1448N 05255W 9909 00178 0116 +191 +183 162017 017 /// /// 03
192930 1449N 05257W 9921 00166 0115 +195 +180 162017 020 /// /// 03
193000 1450N 05259W 9918 00168 0114 +190 +179 178015 015 /// /// 03
193030 1450N 05301W 9910 00174 0113 +189 +178 184015 017 /// /// 03
193100 1451N 05303W 9905 00181 0112 +198 +177 192014 016 /// /// 03
193130 1451N 05305W 9912 00170 0110 +193 +176 192012 013 /// /// 03
193200 1451N 05307W 9918 00163 0108 +190 +176 188008 009 /// /// 03
193230 1451N 05309W 9905 00174 0108 +208 +176 189005 007 /// /// 03
193300 1451N 05311W 9919 00163 0108 +224 +177 208003 004 /// /// 03
193330 1451N 05312W 9912 00169 0108 +224 +178 211001 003 /// /// 03
193400 1450N 05314W 9918 00165 0109 +213 +179 200003 004 /// /// 03
193430 1450N 05316W 9911 00171 0108 +229 +180 157001 002 /// /// 03
193500 1449N 05318W 9914 00169 0109 +229 +181 093001 002 /// /// 03
193530 1448N 05320W 9914 00169 0109 +230 +183 093001 002 /// /// 03
193600 1448N 05321W 9912 00172 0109 +228 +186 102003 004 /// /// 03
193630 1447N 05323W 9907 00178 0110 +229 +188 147004 005 /// /// 03
193700 1446N 05325W 9913 00172 0111 +230 +190 153006 006 /// /// 03
$$
;

[ROCK]

I cant see diddly poo on that shortwave.....two blobs, with the eastern one starting to elongate again...

low level convergence has shifted to the eastern blob now....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


850 Vort is still jacked...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Nogaps pulls abit of a Frederic 79 with the system moving over the Caribbean islands and then making it into the Gulf as a strengthening system...

Don't think thats a very likely solution but I suppose its not impossible.

[stormreader]

18Z nogaps rolling in...Initialization show both vorts and they dumbell into one..


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Ain't that cute. Tracks towards central Cuba touching a lot of real estate on the way. And if I read the SLP right, reaches south florida as no more than a rain event.

Of course all of this is simply fantasy land. But go on keep amusing me.

[bella_may]

18Z nogaps rolling in...Initialization show both vorts and they dumbell into one..


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Ain't that cute. Tracks towards central Cuba touching a lot of real estate on the way. And if I read the SLP right, reaches south florida as no more than a rain event.

that shows it entering the gulf friday

[Aric Dunn]

I cant see diddly poo on that shortwave.....two blobs, with the eastern one starting to elongate again...

low level convergence has shifted to the eastern blob now....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


850 Vort is still jacked...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

stick with the RGB ... works better than that short wave even at night..

the old shortwave was way better..

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 312332
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 28 20110731
193730 1445N 05327W 9914 00171 0111 +234 +191 153006 006 /// /// 03
193800 1445N 05329W 9914 00172 0111 +235 +191 163006 007 /// /// 03
193830 1444N 05330W 9914 00171 0112 +233 +194 162008 008 /// /// 03
193900 1443N 05332W 9913 00172 0111 +231 +197 163008 008 /// /// 03
193930 1442N 05334W 9913 00172 0111 +230 +201 167008 009 /// /// 03
194000 1442N 05336W 9913 00171 0110 +231 +204 164008 009 /// /// 03
194030 1441N 05337W 9907 00178 0110 +230 +206 159008 008 /// /// 03
194100 1440N 05339W 9914 00171 0110 +230 +208 159007 007 /// /// 03
194130 1440N 05341W 9917 00167 0110 +230 +208 163007 007 /// /// 03
194200 1439N 05343W 9912 00172 0110 +229 +209 159008 008 /// /// 03
194230 1438N 05345W 9913 00171 0110 +230 +210 152007 008 /// /// 03
194300 1437N 05346W 9913 00171 0110 +229 +210 165008 009 /// /// 03
194330 1437N 05348W 9914 00169 0110 +225 +209 161009 009 /// /// 03
194400 1436N 05350W 9912 00173 0111 +227 +206 153008 009 /// /// 03
194430 1435N 05352W 9913 00173 0112 +228 +203 157009 009 /// /// 03
194500 1434N 05354W 9913 00173 0113 +230 +200 155008 008 /// /// 03
194530 1434N 05355W 9915 00171 0113 +230 +198 152008 008 /// /// 03
194600 1433N 05357W 9914 00173 0113 +230 +198 153007 008 /// /// 03
194630 1432N 05359W 9917 00169 0112 +227 +198 148007 007 /// /// 03
194700 1431N 05401W 9912 00174 0113 +225 +198 147008 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

120 shoots the straits....weak....

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 312333
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 29 20110731
194730 1431N 05403W 9913 00173 0113 +227 +196 147008 008 /// /// 03
194800 1430N 05404W 9914 00172 0113 +230 +195 152008 008 /// /// 03
194830 1429N 05406W 9915 00172 0113 +230 +195 147008 008 /// /// 03
194900 1429N 05408W 9914 00172 0113 +230 +196 135008 008 /// /// 03
194930 1428N 05410W 9914 00174 0113 +232 +199 126008 009 /// /// 03
195000 1427N 05412W 9913 00173 0113 +234 +203 126006 007 /// /// 03
195030 1426N 05413W 9914 00172 0112 +235 +207 141005 006 /// /// 03
195100 1426N 05415W 9914 00174 0112 +235 +211 151005 006 /// /// 03
195130 1425N 05417W 9914 00173 0112 +235 +214 161006 006 /// /// 03
195200 1424N 05419W 9913 00174 0112 +235 +217 159006 006 /// /// 03
195230 1423N 05420W 9914 00172 0112 +232 +219 154006 006 /// /// 03
195300 1423N 05422W 9915 00172 0111 +230 +221 155005 005 /// /// 03
195330 1422N 05424W 9913 00173 0111 +230 +221 160005 005 /// /// 03
195400 1421N 05426W 9913 00172 0111 +230 +221 159004 004 /// /// 03
195430 1420N 05428W 9914 00172 0111 +232 +219 156004 004 /// /// 03
195500 1420N 05429W 9914 00171 0111 +233 +217 150004 004 /// /// 03
195530 1419N 05431W 9912 00173 0111 +230 +215 139004 004 /// /// 03
195600 1418N 05433W 9913 00173 0110 +235 +214 140005 005 /// /// 03
195630 1417N 05435W 9859 00219 0110 +235 +213 141005 005 /// /// 03
195700 1417N 05437W 9808 00267 0112 +233 +214 117005 005 /// /// 03
$$
;

................................
000
URNT15 KNHC 312334
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 30 20110731
195730 1416N 05438W 9808 00268 0113 +232 +215 114005 005 /// /// 03
195800 1415N 05440W 9806 00268 0112 +235 +217 132005 005 /// /// 03
195830 1414N 05442W 9805 00270 0113 +234 +219 116005 005 /// /// 03
195900 1414N 05444W 9805 00272 0113 +232 +220 127005 006 /// /// 03
195930 1413N 05446W 9805 00272 0114 +230 +222 110005 006 /// /// 03
200000 1412N 05448W 9805 00272 0114 +228 +223 102006 006 /// /// 03
200030 1411N 05449W 9806 00270 0114 +227 +223 119006 007 /// /// 03
200100 1411N 05449W 9806 00270 0114 +229 +223 144005 006 /// /// 03
200130 1409N 05452W 9806 00269 0112 +232 +222 158006 006 /// /// 03
200200 1408N 05454W 9809 00267 0111 +235 +222 179006 006 /// /// 03
200230 1407N 05455W 9809 00266 0110 +236 +223 172006 007 /// /// 03
200300 1406N 05457W 9803 00271 0110 +240 +223 122005 005 /// /// 03
200330 1406N 05459W 9807 00268 0111 +240 +224 102005 006 /// /// 03
200400 1405N 05501W 9807 00269 0112 +236 +225 124006 006 /// /// 03
200430 1405N 05503W 9806 00269 0112 +237 +225 138006 007 /// /// 03
200500 1405N 05505W 9805 00271 0112 +236 +226 139006 006 /// /// 03
200530 1404N 05507W 9807 00270 0112 +240 +226 132005 006 /// /// 03
200600 1403N 05509W 9806 00270 0112 +237 +226 130004 004 /// /// 03
200630 1402N 05510W 9805 00271 0112 +235 +226 132003 004 /// /// 03
200700 1401N 05512W 9807 00268 0111 +235 +226 130004 005 /// /// 03
$$
;

[artist]

RECCO Observations (tropical cyclone)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT11 KNHC 312333
97779 18454 10127 51300 03000 11011 23209 /0013
49905
RMK AF304 01EEA INVEST OB 08

[KWT]

low level convergence has shifted to the eastern blob now....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Yep thats to be expected, its entering a similar sort of set-up that allowed the area ahead of the system to flare up today, so should see a similar response in the next 12-24hrs and that will probably be enough to cause this to develop.

[Aric Dunn]

but see at least it start the system out as a mess and merges everything.. its probably the best solution right now because the all the rest have small symmetrical system that strengthens right away..