ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HurrMark]

Regardless, (almost) all models put an end to America's no-landfall streak of near three years and twenty storms.

Twenty storms, most likely...three years since a hurricane...I would say more likely than not it will remain a TS and the streak will continue, but ismall storms can often intensify quicker, so if it finds favorable conditions, it is still possible.

[Ptarmigan]

I think we got Tropical Depression #4 or even Tropical Storm Don.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Strongest winds yet found in the last pass folks:

193330 2217N 08626W 9764 00290 0096 +217 +130 146041 042 035 002 00

The key thing is its not got much rain going on either, so those 35kts winds are probably quite realisitic.

[NDG]

I don't know if I've missed it but what did the 12z GFDL do with this system, did it lose it again?

WHXX04 KWBC 271740
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.6 86.7 290./11.1
6 22.1 87.2 314./ 6.6
12 22.3 87.8 288./ 5.3
18 23.0 88.8 302./11.6
24 24.1 89.8 320./14.2
30 25.0 90.5 321./11.1
36 25.5 91.4 301./ 9.9
42 26.3 92.6 305./13.3
48 27.3 93.6 315./13.3
54 28.1 94.2 322./ 9.4
60 28.8 95.1 306./10.8
66 29.5 96.0 310./10.9
72 30.5 96.8 319./11.3
78 31.2 97.1 339./ 8.3
84 31.7 97.5 316./ 6.0

[BigB0882]

Regardless, (almost) all models put an end to America's no-landfall streak of near three years and twenty storms.

I thought the streak was only for Hurricanes and there is no guarantee this will get to hurricane strength.

[ROCK]

Once the ridge starts moving more eastward, should it not make the system move more poleward. I would expect more jog to the north in time.

That is what would be expected, but I wouldn't count on it going way North. I would guess we will see a wnw course for about 24 more hours before it starts to feel the sw periphery of the ridge as it moves E. Then I would expect a track between wnw and nw. The longer it takes to get its' act together, the less likely it is to turn more poleward since it would be only feeling the lower steering currents.

VB, its got its act together now.. ..

IMO, expect over night this thing to ramp up to a strong TC...make Hurricane status tomorrow and then who knows....I am thinking Freeport southward now....to Tampico..

[Tireman4]

I think we got Tropical Depression #4 or even Tropical Storm Don.

I think we may have Don...I agree with Rock and Wxman 57...

[NDG]

What is up with no Special Statement out yet? What is up with the NHC?

[RL3AO]

What is up with no Special Statement out yet? What is up with the NHC?

Probably waiting for one more center fix and a VDM

[red herring]

[ROCK]

I saw some high 40'sknt flight level winds thrown around in the last set...this is or right at Don...

[KWT]

What is up with no Special Statement out yet? What is up with the NHC?

They may also just wait till the normal advisory time given we are so close to it now, gives them time for perehaps a pass through the center as well.

That last set has changed my mind, I think we have Don as well.

[Dave]

976
URNT15 KNHC 271947
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 18 20110727
193800 2232N 08634W 9762 00293 0097 +220 +148 130033 033 032 003 00
193830 2234N 08635W 9757 00295 0094 +228 +148 131032 032 033 000 00
193900 2235N 08636W 9754 00298 0094 +225 +149 128033 034 036 002 00
193930 2237N 08637W 9763 00289 0093 +225 +150 127035 035 035 002 00
194000 2238N 08638W 9765 00288 0093 +225 +152 125036 037 035 001 03
194030 2240N 08639W 9761 00292 0093 +225 +154 123035 037 033 001 03
194100 2241N 08641W 9764 00289 0094 +225 +155 122036 037 032 003 03
194130 2242N 08642W 9761 00290 0093 +225 +157 124033 034 032 000 00
194200 2244N 08643W 9762 00290 0094 +225 +159 122033 033 028 001 03
194230 2245N 08644W 9751 00300 0093 +225 +161 117033 034 /// /// 03
194300 2245N 08646W 9757 00296 0094 +225 +163 115029 030 027 000 03
194330 2243N 08647W 9761 00292 0093 +225 +165 118029 031 027 003 03
194400 2242N 08648W 9761 00293 0094 +225 +167 116030 032 026 001 00
194430 2241N 08650W 9758 00294 0093 +225 +167 115030 031 027 002 03
194500 2240N 08651W 9764 00289 0093 +224 +167 114028 029 026 004 03
194530 2239N 08652W 9766 00287 0092 +224 +166 117028 030 028 002 00
194600 2238N 08653W 9760 00290 0090 +222 +163 117028 029 029 003 00
194630 2237N 08655W 9762 00287 0089 +224 +160 116029 030 030 001 00
194700 2235N 08656W 9760 00288 0088 +222 +158 114031 032 029 001 00
194730 2234N 08657W 9764 00283 0088 +220 +156 110030 031 029 002 00
$$
;

[Zampanò]

I suppose Don will be making Texas an offer they can't refuse?

[ROCK]

yeah it is only going up from here....look at that outflow on the NW and West sides now....impressive...building SE carib feeder band.....shear let up...its go time for Don while the fire is hot....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[HURAKAN]

[plasticup]

Let's get purely hypothetical here...lets say this thing goes into Matagorda as a cat 1...what would Houston be looking at? (I'm in Kingwood - NE Harris Co., btw)

A drought buster, primarily. Obviously the winds would be a little damaging but the storm is small-ish so there's not much worry about surge. Frankly, every home on the Texas coast should be able to survive a Cat 1. I expect there would be some damage, but nothing catastrophic.

[fci]

Analysis post-season will surely point out some problems with % assignments and decisions made to deactivate 90L and deactivate. 0% just about 24-36 hours ago?
Really???

[stormhunter7]

ission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 19:03Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 22.0N 87.0W
Location: 60 miles (96 km) to the N (350°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

Estimated Surface Wind: From 250° at 25 knots (From the WSW at ~ 28.7 mph)

Don??