ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

#21 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:52 pm

18z Steering Layer for our invest. Very weak steering noted on this analysis.

CYCLONE MIKE · #22 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:53 pm

Going off some other upper air forecast charts looks like the big high over the central US will build east and block this from moving north anytime soon. Will be interesting to see how long this invest gets trapped and pushed south before getting kicked west across florida into the gulf. Will also be of note to see how much it is able to organize in the next day or two while it is slowly meandering around. Looks like it could have a Katrina type track. Not strength of course, just track.

TheBurn · #23 Postby **TheBurn** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:57 pm

#24 Postby **MGC** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:07 pm

Convection looks to have diminished this afternoon. Wondering if the low over the Fla panhandle will have an impact on 98L......MGC

#25 Postby **BigB0882** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:17 pm

I was also wondering about the ULL developing near the FL panhandle. If it is too close it would hurt 98L right and if it would move far enough West it could somehow help development? Should be interesting to see what happens.

#26 Postby **BigB0882** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:19 pm

Those tracks would certainly give it time to develop, especially if upper level conditions are conducive. How do those look? The most threatening tracks looks like the one to TX as it gives the most time over water.

Aric Dunn · #27 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:28 pm

convection should begin to develop over the next few hours.

#28 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:30 pm

The model runs at 0Z will be interesting.

#29 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:34 pm

A good visible view......

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... duration=6

#30 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:00 pm

12Z Euro takes a weak low NE and out to sea in a few days. GFS appears to do the same, though it's hard to see on the GFS. Canadian just dissipates a weak low east of FL. Something to keep an eye on, but probably not a big U.S. threat as far as any wind.

KWT · #31 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:47 pm

Looks like the sort of system that would have a pretty good chance of developing once it starts to lift out NE...its a classic early season type development (since we are really still in the first part of the season).

#32 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 4:05 pm

Looks like it was tagged since it has a warm core and PV is in the mid-levels.

However, no deep convection to push circulation to the surface and push out shear.

Too much UL vorticity to spin this up to a full tropical system for at least the next 24 hrs.

Need to see if deep convection fires around sunrise at DMAX. There is enough shear to fire up a deep MCS.

Maybe this will become a hybrid.

KWT · #33 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 4:18 pm

Possibly Gcane, thats the sort of system I'd expect, I've tend to find that when these systems go NNE/NE they tend to have their best shot at developing.

Ptarmigan · #34 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 5:24 pm

If 98L develops, it could become Bret. I know storms in the past have formed off the east coast of Florida and even Carolinas and hit Texas. Hurricane #3 1934 and Hurricane #2 1940.

Let's hope it moves into Texas and gives us rain we need. :grrr:

Aric Dunn · #35 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 5:31 pm

Radar is looking quite a bit more impressive. out of melbourne..

#36 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 5:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Radar is looking quite a bit more impressive. out of melbourne..

I completely agree. Maybe up to 30% at 8 pm. Cyclonic turning is quite evident on radar.

Aric Dunn · #37 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 5:52 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Radar is looking quite a bit more impressive. out of melbourne..

I completely agree. Maybe up to 30% at 8 pm. Cyclonic turning is quite evident on radar.

yeah as the mid level circ has dropped south over the weak LOW analyzed earlier convection begin to fire as was expected. this type of convection is what is needed to work the MLC down to the surface. Also the farther it drops south the better chance it has... as the shear lessens quite a bit.

#38 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 6:04 pm

Convection is beginning to build on the south and east of the circulation. Also, the Low has actually drifted more to the southeast for the duration of the afternoon. Observing Melbourne long range radar, the Low now appears positioned approximately 100-125 miles east of Saint Augustine. The Low is still drifting S-SE slowly at this time.

Rainband · #39 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 6:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro takes a weak low NE and out to sea in a few days. GFS appears to do the same, though it's hard to see on the GFS. Canadian just dissipates a weak low east of FL. Something to keep an eye on, but probably not a big U.S. threat as far as any wind.

can i have some tartar sauce with my fish:)

Aric Dunn · #40 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 16, 2011 6:10 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Convection is beginning to build on the south and east of the circulation. Also, the Low has actually drifted more to the southeast for the duration of the afternoon. Observing Melbourne long range radar, the Low now appears positioned approximately 100-125 miles east of Saint Augustine. The Low is still drifting S-SE slowly at this time.

well its a bit farther south. straight east of New Symyrna Beach ... about 50 miles south of St augustine. but none the less yeah its still slowly dropping SSE

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