ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

[SFLcane]

It would take a beating if it followed those early bams and ukmet.

[caneseddy]

12z GFS running...initializes it at 1009 MB

[caneseddy]

Not all that agressive to start with by SHIPS standards.

BAMD is the only one that gains real northward latitude at the end moving at 300 degrees between 96-120.

The fact that SHIPS is not that aggressive would worry me a little, because isn't SHIPS usually more aggressive to start when it comes to intensity?

[Ivanhater]

Will we make 14 consecutive runs in a row showing a major U.S hit?

GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12Z Thur: ???

[Scorpion]

How is SHIPS not aggressive? 51 kts in 48 hours is pretty aggressive to me

[KWT]

Well its not that fast for the first 36hrs, it does pick up after that abit more for sure...considering how agressive some runs have been, thats not that agressive.

UKMO starts off to far south on its 0z run, I suspect the GFS maybe a little south as well though I've not seen the 12z run so far.

(EDIT- yep GFS looks too far south IMO)

[wxman57]

How is SHIPS not aggressive? 51 kts in 48 hours is pretty aggressive to me

Yeah, that's WAY too aggressive. I doubt it'll look much different than it does now in 48 hours. Still a disturbance but maybe with a bit more convection. That's the trouble with these models, they assume quick development all the time and begin turning the storm west-northwestward too soon.

[Cyclenall]

Thankfully, it's GFS 8-day.....

*Image Removed*

Ooohh K that got my attention, I actually had no idea that this was being modeled until now since I haven't checked the models for a while. That is quite something...large hurricane in the Florida straights. Well 8 days from now isn't exactly fantasy land as we call it so there is some level of skill still at this range.

Wont be surprised to see a few cat-4 or even 5 from the HWRF.

I would be, I haven't seen the HWRF display that for a very long time. Usually the HWRF under-estimates intensity from what I have seen, weird some think the opposite.

Me neither, as the HWRF does that for quite a few systems that never develop. It's really had a problem with its intensity forecasts.

It definitely has an intensity problem...but for the opposite reason!

I have a feeling this thread could be a long one

and entertaining.

That made me lol. I love that emoticon.

Not all that agressive to start with by SHIPS standards.

What is then? I tend to think of SHIPS as moderate in strength prediction.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS...66 HOURS.

[KWT]

GFS going due west at 48hrs...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal048.gif

Given the current motion, it already looks like it maybe a little too far south!

PS, 10kts strengthening for the first 24hrs for the SHIPS isn't that agressive by its standards, I've seen double that rate before...note I said START...implying first 24-36hrs...it does get much more agressive from that point onwards (10kts+ per 12hrs...nonsense!)

[caneseddy]

12z GFS...66 HOURS.

So if the GFS is right Sunday is when it should start intensifying, when it enters the Caribbean

[USTropics]

So if the GFS is right Sunday is when it should start intensifying, when it enters the Caribbean

Looking at the last 4 runs of the GFS, this is the exact time frame in every model run that it begins to intensify 97L.

[ROCK]

here comes a GOM run....I can smell it cooking...

[Ivanhater]

78 hours...ramping up

[caneseddy]

Looks like this run is going to smack Puerto Rico

At +90
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif

[Ivanhater]

90 hours...approaching PR

[KWT]

Maybe ever so slightly further NW this run, but its only a tiny amount and next to make no difference at this stage.

[Tireman4]

here comes a GOM run....I can smell it cooking...

Can you smell what the ROCK is cooking? LOL. Sorry, back on topic...

[caneseddy]

At 96 hours really ramping up and heading towards the Mona Passage