ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Category 4
- Posts: 907
- Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
- Location: Ozark, AL
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Would probably depend on whether it develops or not. weak=west, strong would be recurve
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 583
- Age: 61
- Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 11:56 am
- Location: Southwest Louisiana
Irene and Jose (future) might be a Floyd/Gert replay from 1999.
Floyd: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/FLOYD/track.gif
Gert: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/GERT/track.gif
Floyd: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/FLOYD/track.gif
Gert: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/GERT/track.gif
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Isn't this thing moving NW like 98L? If so, this might end up like the latter too.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
bexar wrote:Isn't this thing moving NW like 98L? If so, this might end up like the latter too.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Moving due west as of now
0 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 83
- Age: 48
- Joined: Sat Jun 04, 2011 9:56 am
- Location: Sarasota Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
I think if it stays week it may go further west to early to tell right now.
http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/
http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/
0 likes
Possibly but I do suspect it'll recurve if it tries to develop, its just too far east to do anything else with the troughy set-up that is still somewhat present.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
GFS is quite agressive with strengthen ing this system in the next 48hrs, probably making it Jose...
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139722
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
30%
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Models are quite keen on developing this at some point so odds are this one does develop into Jose, not sure how strong it will get but my gut would say possibly a hurricane.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Well since Irene isn't affecting me,while everyone is waiting on the models to come out for it tonight, I'll be waiting on the models for this on ![Wink :wink:](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
![Wink :wink:](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
0 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 83
- Age: 48
- Joined: Sat Jun 04, 2011 9:56 am
- Location: Sarasota Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
I believe this is 90L at 384hr mark.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384m.gif
http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384m.gif
http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/
0 likes
- StormTracker
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2902
- Age: 58
- Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
- Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
![up arrow :uarrow:](./images/smilies/icon_arrowu.gif)
0 likes
Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!
- Meso
- Category 5
- Posts: 1608
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
- Location: South Africa
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
From the latest TWO:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
After watching the massive model fail on Irene i'll worry bout 90L in around 7 days!
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
No sense in even speculating what it will do 10+ days from now. Look at how far off the models were on Irene 5 days out!
0 likes
- Meso
- Category 5
- Posts: 1608
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
- Location: South Africa
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Up to 50%
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139722
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
12z Tropical Models.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 241239
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC WED AUG 24 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110824 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110824 1200 110825 0000 110825 1200 110826 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 25.0W 14.3N 26.5W 15.9N 28.0W 17.6N 29.7W
BAMD 13.0N 25.0W 13.4N 26.7W 14.1N 28.3W 15.2N 29.7W
BAMM 13.0N 25.0W 13.7N 27.0W 14.8N 28.9W 16.1N 30.4W
LBAR 13.0N 25.0W 13.3N 27.3W 14.0N 29.6W 14.9N 31.6W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS 58KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS 58KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110826 1200 110827 1200 110828 1200 110829 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 31.3W 21.0N 34.9W 21.3N 38.9W 20.4N 41.4W
BAMD 16.8N 30.5W 20.6N 29.3W 24.3N 23.6W 27.1N 17.3W
BAMM 17.6N 31.4W 20.6N 32.4W 23.7N 32.5W 26.2N 33.4W
LBAR 16.1N 33.3W 19.5N 35.0W 23.9N 34.1W 28.7N 30.1W
SHIP 67KTS 72KTS 61KTS 49KTS
DSHP 67KTS 72KTS 61KTS 49KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 25.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 22.4W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 20.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests