ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[Extratropical94]

Observation 29

000
URNT15 KNHC 282031
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 29 20110628
202030 2312N 09310W 9699 00352 0098 +222 +206 099039 040 034 000 00
202100 2314N 09310W 9702 00349 0098 +222 +205 102040 041 032 000 00
202130 2315N 09311W 9699 00351 0098 +223 +204 103040 043 033 000 00
202200 2317N 09312W 9696 00355 0098 +223 +207 101039 040 033 001 00
202230 2319N 09312W 9695 00356 0098 +221 +205 104039 041 033 000 00
202300 2320N 09313W 9694 00356 0097 +220 +203 106041 041 034 000 00
202330 2322N 09314W 9697 00354 0099 +220 +201 108042 042 036 000 00
202400 2324N 09314W 9694 00357 0099 +220 +201 107040 042 036 000 00
202430 2325N 09315W 9692 00360 0100 +216 +204 108041 042 037 001 00
202500 2327N 09316W 9698 00357 0102 +214 +204 107040 041 036 001 00
202530 2328N 09316W 9699 00352 0102 +211 +197 107041 041 037 000 00
202600 2330N 09317W 9699 00354 0103 +214 +196 110041 042 036 000 00
202630 2332N 09318W 9700 00355 0104 +213 +189 111042 043 037 002 00
202700 2333N 09318W 9697 00359 0105 +211 +188 109041 042 039 002 00
202730 2335N 09319W 9697 00360 0106 +212 +181 109040 041 038 000 00
202800 2337N 09320W 9699 00358 0106 +211 +181 109042 044 037 000 00
202830 2338N 09321W 9698 00358 0107 +213 +185 110042 045 036 000 00
202900 2340N 09321W 9699 00359 0107 +213 +180 108041 043 037 000 00
202930 2342N 09322W 9697 00361 0107 +214 +178 110041 042 037 000 00
203000 2343N 09323W 9696 00361 0108 +211 +178 110041 042 037 000 00
$$
;
45 kts at flight level, 39 kts surface winds unflagged

[Portastorm]

Don't want to rain on anyone's parade (lol), but it seems to be opening up into a wave at this time, despite the recon observations of a very weak circulation center, because the weak center to the south has now dissipated and a larger line of convection is taking over and moving westward at a faster rate, almost wave-like:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Frank, you're not raining on anyone's parade. The professional meteorologists who study these things (including those at your former place of employment) disagree with you. The system is NOT opening into a wave. Granted, the low level center is elongated and this is not, by far, a great-looking system. But it is not a wave.

[NDG]

Don't want to rain on anyone's parade (lol), but it seems to be opening up into a wave at this time, despite the recon observations of a very weak circulation center, because the weak center to the south has now dissipated and a larger line of convection is taking over and moving westward at a faster rate, almost wave-like:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Frank, you're not raining on anyone's parade. The professional meteorologists who study these things (including those at your former place of employment) disagree with you. The system is NOT opening into a wave. Granted, the low level center is elongated and this is, by far, a great-looking system. But it is not a wave.

Edit:
I guess I will play politically correct. I take my words back.

[Extratropical94]

Recon just found 45 knots at flight level and a calculated 39 knots unflagged at the surface.
Enough proof to upgrade it at 8PM imho.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 30

000
URNT15 KNHC 282040
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 30 20110628
203030 2345N 09323W 9694 00363 0108 +214 +184 110042 044 035 000 00
203100 2347N 09324W 9700 00359 0108 +215 +182 110040 044 034 000 00
203130 2348N 09325W 9698 00361 0108 +217 +184 109044 046 035 001 00
203200 2350N 09325W 9695 00363 0108 +210 +187 109042 042 037 000 00
203230 2352N 09326W 9701 00358 0109 +213 +185 112040 042 038 001 00
203300 2353N 09327W 9704 00356 0108 +224 +186 107040 040 034 000 00
203330 2355N 09327W 9693 00366 0108 +226 +187 106038 041 033 000 00
203400 2357N 09328W 9699 00361 0108 +225 +193 107036 036 031 000 00
203430 2358N 09329W 9699 00360 0108 +228 +189 107036 038 033 000 00
203500 2400N 09329W 9696 00365 0108 +230 +205 106036 036 031 000 00
203530 2402N 09330W 9699 00361 0108 +230 +199 108036 037 031 001 00
203600 2403N 09331W 9696 00365 0108 +230 +204 108036 037 031 000 00
203630 2405N 09331W 9693 00368 0109 +230 +208 107035 036 027 000 00
203700 2406N 09332W 9701 00360 0109 +230 +207 108038 040 028 000 00
203730 2408N 09333W 9697 00364 0110 +223 +210 109037 038 032 007 00
203800 2410N 09333W 9691 00372 0112 +214 +212 103031 032 035 008 00
203830 2411N 09334W 9699 00364 0114 +198 //// 104033 035 042 010 01
203900 2413N 09335W 9699 00364 0114 +205 +204 107034 038 046 008 00
203930 2415N 09335W 9703 00361 0112 +223 +194 099032 033 028 000 00
204000 2416N 09336W 9703 00360 0112 +225 +191 093031 032 027 000 00
$$
;

[Hurricane]

Don't want to rain on anyone's parade (lol), but it seems to be opening up into a wave at this time, despite the recon observations of a very weak circulation center, because the weak center to the south has now dissipated and a larger line of convection is taking over and moving westward at a faster rate, almost wave-like:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Frank, you're not raining on anyone's parade. The professional meteorologists who study these things (including those at your former place of employment) disagree with you. The system is NOT opening into a wave. Granted, the low level center is elongated and this is, by far, a great-looking system. But it is not a wave.

UH OH!

[Ivanhater]

Frank was making an observation be it wrong or right. Portastorm made his observation. Leave the extra commentary out and discuss 95L. Only warning.

[MississippiWx]

Southern Miss to the TOP!

[cycloneye]

Continuing the discussion about 95L,the plane found 45kts at flight level.

[MississippiWx]

Only a slight increase in convection get this thing classified. Might take the cooling of night to get it there, though.

[MississippiWx]

Continuing the discussion about 95L,the plane found 45kts at flight level.

Hunters are consistently finding winds that would classify the system as a tropical storm. If convection cooperates, we go straight to Arlene.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 31

000
URNT15 KNHC 282050
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 31 20110628
204030 2418N 09337W 9691 00371 0112 +226 +194 096032 034 026 000 00
204100 2419N 09337W 9696 00366 0111 +229 +201 098032 033 026 000 00
204130 2421N 09338W 9693 00369 0111 +229 +201 098032 033 026 000 00
204200 2422N 09339W 9696 00366 0110 +230 +204 099031 032 024 000 00
204230 2424N 09339W 9695 00367 0110 +230 +211 101031 031 026 000 00
204300 2426N 09340W 9698 00366 0111 +228 +207 097030 031 026 000 00
204330 2427N 09341W 9695 00369 0112 +227 +208 096031 031 026 000 00
204400 2429N 09341W 9700 00365 0112 +229 +213 098031 031 025 000 00
204430 2430N 09342W 9695 00370 0113 +228 +212 098031 032 027 000 00
204500 2432N 09343W 9692 00373 0114 +229 +214 098031 032 027 000 00
204530 2434N 09343W 9699 00368 0115 +230 +210 098032 033 027 000 00
204600 2435N 09344W 9694 00372 0115 +230 +210 097031 032 028 000 00
204630 2437N 09345W 9695 00371 0115 +228 +214 099031 032 027 000 00
204700 2438N 09345W 9699 00369 0116 +229 +213 099032 033 027 000 00
204730 2440N 09346W 9696 00372 0116 +227 +212 097032 033 027 000 00
204800 2441N 09346W 9695 00374 0117 +227 +214 097032 033 028 000 00
204830 2443N 09347W 9699 00370 0117 +228 +213 097033 034 027 000 00
204900 2445N 09348W 9697 00372 0118 +227 +217 096032 032 027 000 00
204930 2446N 09348W 9699 00369 0118 +225 +214 096034 035 028 000 00
205000 2448N 09349W 9694 00375 0118 +227 +216 096033 034 028 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

In what direction it is flying now?

[x-y-no]

Seems like a pretty marginal call to me ... do we know that there are west winds at the surface anywhere? 5 knots or so at flight level isn't too convincing. Any dropsond in that area?

[Bobo2000]

Should skip TD and become Arlene. Some storms do this when they are like this.

[HURAKAN]

Recon just found 45 knots at flight level and a calculated 39 knots unflagged at the surface.
Enough proof to upgrade it at 8PM imho.

That was really far from the center. I doubt they will upgrade it based on that. Furthermore, the convection isn't deep or organized enough to warrant an upgrade.

[HURAKAN]

Those winds were really far from the center and the convection isn't deep nor organized enough to warrant an upgrade. Tomorrow at the earliest I believe.

[Bobo2000]

Recon just found 45 knots at flight level and a calculated 39 knots unflagged at the surface.
Enough proof to upgrade it at 8PM imho.

That was really far from the center. I doubt they will upgrade it based on that. Furthermore, the convection isn't deep or organized enough to warrant an upgrade.

Not right now, but upgrade is imminent.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 32, plane ascending and heading home, mission over

000
URNT15 KNHC 282100
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 32 20110628
205030 2449N 09350W 9698 00372 0119 +225 +213 095033 034 026 000 00
205100 2451N 09350W 9696 00375 0120 +225 +211 094032 032 026 000 00
205130 2452N 09351W 9700 00372 0121 +225 +211 093031 032 027 001 00
205200 2454N 09352W 9694 00379 0121 +225 +214 093031 031 027 000 00
205230 2456N 09352W 9696 00375 0121 +225 +216 092030 030 026 000 00
205300 2457N 09353W 9695 00378 0121 +225 +214 093030 031 025 000 03
205330 2459N 09353W 9453 00584 0106 +209 +209 101032 033 /// /// 03
205400 2500N 09352W 9001 01015 0117 +191 //// 109032 033 /// /// 05
205430 2501N 09351W 8642 01380 //// +174 //// 110034 034 025 001 05
205500 2502N 09350W 8367 01664 //// +159 //// 112034 035 024 000 01
205530 2504N 09348W 8151 01892 //// +147 //// 111034 035 023 000 01
205600 2505N 09347W 7926 02130 //// +139 //// 111032 032 023 000 01
205630 2507N 09346W 7677 02388 //// +123 //// 109030 032 024 000 01
205700 2509N 09344W 7437 02657 //// +109 //// 104028 028 024 000 01
205730 2510N 09343W 7195 02936 //// +093 //// 101030 030 025 000 01
205800 2512N 09341W 6977 03194 //// +076 //// 104028 029 024 000 01
205830 2514N 09340W 6769 03451 //// +061 //// 099027 028 023 000 01
205900 2515N 09339W 6568 03700 //// +053 //// 095025 026 022 000 01
205930 2517N 09337W 6385 03932 //// +040 //// 095026 027 019 000 01
210000 2519N 09336W 6209 04167 //// +028 //// 092025 026 019 000 01
$$
;

[MGC]

Yep...hardly any convection near the CC....no TC....and unless a lot more convection developes near the CC then 95L should remain unclassified.....MGC