ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[bella_may]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011073118&prod=z85&tau=144&set=Tropical

144hr....getting some life back...

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 312340
97779 20344 10135 55910 02700 15012 24239 /0011
49905
RMK AF304 01EEA INVEST OB 14
LAST REPORT
;

[KWT]

Yeah given there wasn't much of a hint the 90% estimate sounds good, and expected given its got a real strong MLC still and bursting pattern combined with very good model support but nothing really of note at the surface.

The western area is the reason, the LLC is weak butat least at the time was on the western convection...thats why recon found nothing there, because they were looking in the wrong place for a circulation.

[HURAKAN]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 312343
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 38 20110731
211730 1502N 05845W 3759 08057 0440 -195 //// 048023 023 /// /// 05
211800 1503N 05847W 3759 08060 0439 -197 //// 054025 026 /// /// 05
211830 1505N 05850W 3755 08063 0439 -197 //// 053020 022 /// /// 05
211900 1506N 05853W 3760 08062 0440 -194 //// 057018 020 /// /// 05
211930 1507N 05855W 3768 08041 0439 -186 //// 055021 022 /// /// 05
212000 1508N 05858W 3750 08073 0437 -195 //// 053020 021 /// /// 05
212030 1509N 05900W 3758 08066 0437 -195 //// 054019 020 /// /// 05
212100 1510N 05902W 3758 08058 0437 -196 //// 058021 021 /// /// 05
212130 1511N 05905W 3757 08060 0437 -197 //// 060020 021 /// /// 05
212200 1512N 05907W 3758 08063 0439 -196 //// 057023 025 /// /// 05
212230 1514N 05910W 3757 08067 0440 -197 //// 058025 026 /// /// 05
212300 1515N 05913W 3759 08059 0438 -197 //// 053026 027 /// /// 05
212330 1516N 05915W 3758 08058 0439 -197 //// 048023 024 /// /// 05
212400 1517N 05918W 3759 08059 0440 -195 //// 050020 022 /// /// 05
212430 1518N 05921W 3759 08059 0440 -196 //// 052023 025 /// /// 05
212500 1519N 05923W 3759 08059 0439 -196 //// 051021 023 /// /// 05
212530 1521N 05926W 3760 08051 0438 -195 //// 056019 020 /// /// 05
212600 1522N 05929W 3759 08058 0440 -195 //// 058018 019 /// /// 05
212630 1523N 05931W 3759 08057 0440 -194 //// 055019 020 /// /// 05
212700 1524N 05934W 3759 08066 0440 -191 //// 062020 021 /// /// 05
$$
;

[sunnyday]

Does lowering to 90% indicate a bit of a lack of confidence that this is going to develop? I realize it is only a small percentage, but it is lower than it was.

[Aric Dunn]

well there is just a whole lot of craziness going on.. lol nothing very helpful.. oh well thanks guys

[KWT]

One thing I am noticing with the models is that some of them are trying to build back some kind of ridging north of the Bahamas starting around 130 hours or so.

Yes thats a very good point, I noticed that as well, not a big feature or a strong feature but it is enough to at least sustain a WNW/NW, and in the GFS case actually bend back a little to the west.

[HURAKAN]

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 312344
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 39 20110731
212730 1525N 05937W 3758 08061 0440 -195 //// 058021 021 /// /// 05
212800 1527N 05939W 3758 08059 0439 -194 //// 056019 020 /// /// 05
212830 1528N 05942W 3758 08058 0441 -195 //// 055019 019 /// /// 05
212900 1529N 05945W 3759 08060 0440 -195 //// 053018 019 /// /// 05
212930 1530N 05948W 3761 08060 0441 -196 //// 056019 020 /// /// 05
213000 1532N 05950W 3758 08062 0440 -196 //// 058018 019 /// /// 05
213030 1533N 05953W 3761 08055 0439 -196 //// 069016 018 /// /// 05
213100 1535N 05955W 3766 08043 0437 -194 //// 068016 017 /// /// 05
213130 1536N 05957W 3757 08063 0434 -197 //// 050017 018 /// /// 05
213200 1537N 05959W 3756 08063 0437 -196 //// 039015 016 /// /// 05
213230 1538N 06002W 3758 08057 0436 -196 -197 045015 016 /// /// 03
213300 1539N 06004W 3756 08061 0437 -201 //// 047013 014 /// /// 05
213330 1540N 06007W 3759 08056 0437 -205 //// 054014 014 /// /// 05
213400 1541N 06009W 3759 08054 0437 -205 //// 061015 015 /// /// 05
213430 1542N 06012W 3760 08054 0436 -205 -216 062015 016 /// /// 03
213500 1543N 06014W 3758 08055 0435 -200 -225 060016 018 /// /// 03
213530 1544N 06017W 3759 08056 0435 -202 -231 066016 016 /// /// 03
213600 1546N 06020W 3759 08058 0436 -202 -237 066017 017 /// /// 03
213630 1547N 06022W 3759 08054 0435 -200 -240 062017 017 /// /// 03
213700 1548N 06025W 3759 08057 0437 -200 -243 055016 017 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

At least the GFDL, ECMWF, and CMC shoot it into the weakness before it can reach the U.S.

The GFDL (which keeps flopping on recurve or not) doesn't actually shoot it out in the 12z run. We don't see what happens after 126 hours, it could just as easily send it WNW like the other models after. It just doesn't run that far out.

[KWT]

Does lowering to 90% indicate a bit of a lack of confidence that this is going to develop? I realize it is only a small percentage, but it is lower than it was.

Hmm a little, probably matters little in the longer term, just that the low level circulation isn't there *at all* from the looks of recon reports, so either the LLC we spotted earlier IS the main one, or its just a broad mess...the former will probably still lead to a upgrade some point in the next 12-24hrs...the latter...could drag things out a little further.

This is one of the longer formations I've seen, esp given it was pretty much at the same level of organisation as it was 3 days ago!

[gatorcane]

One thing I am noticing with the models is that some of them are trying to build back some kind of ridging north of the Bahamas starting around 130 hours or so.

Yes thats a very good point, I noticed that as well, not a big feature or a strong feature but it is enough to at least sustain a WNW/NW, and in the GFS case actually bend back a little to the west.

Actually looking at the 700MB flow from 18Z GFS, it looks like it is the Bermuda High ridge building some towards the west....pushing it more WNW, not a ridge to the north of the Bahamas.

But notice that Bermuda High is still relatively weak and displaced a bit too south to push it all the way to Florida or the SE. U.S.

[Dean4Storms]

This just isn't organizing. This may well traverse much further west.

[KWT]

Interesting Gatorcane, if you take a look at the 850hpa maps as well you can see it develop weakly in response to the trough digging down, its a classic low level feature which is reflected higher up by the Bermuda high ridiging as well as the last trough leaves.

[shaggy]

One thing I am noticing with the models is that some of them are trying to build back some kind of ridging north of the Bahamas starting around 130 hours or so.

The BAMD, GFS, and even the HWRF seem to be bending it back WNW briefly before sending it north.

That is not a trend you want to see. But it is a long way out.

At least the GFDL, ECMWF, and CMC shoot it into the weakness before it can reach the U.S.

Once/IF this gets past 75W then it HAS to take on an easterly component to miss the OBX. If it pulls a slight wnw movement for brief period then rides due north after passing 75W then the east coast could still be at risk. So much still to be hacked out with this storm that its gonna be a long week.

[Ivanhater]

18z HWRF...imo this model is just as bad as the Nogaps and the Nam...the right bias here is laughable

[jlauderdal]

Yep its very close actually on this run, as I said little weak ridge forms and and actually briefly moves it back on a WNW track towards the N.Bahamas.

Given something like that formed just 2-3 days ago from the main ridge, its perfectly possible solution.

remember jeanne and francis

[Evil Jeremy]

18z GFDL takes a decent jog to the west.

[KWT]

Ivanhater, gotta love the fact its got a strong TS almost right from the off!

Always going to get troubles in a model when its starting estimates are clearly already off.