ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[gatorcane]

18z HWRF...imo this model is just as bad as the Nogaps and the Nam...the right bias here is laughable

I agree that is too far to the right. I don't see that verifying unless it becomes hurricane Emily tomorrow.

[TwisterFanatic]

91L isn't organizing fast, could very well see further west trends with the models.

[Aric Dunn]

really hwrf... NW from this moment on.. really.. lol

[sunnyday]

Thank you, KWT. This is one of the strangest I've seen.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFDL...still too far north in the short term but better than the HWRF

[tolakram]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Getting a circular signature back on the TPW loop, we'll see if this leads to some organization.

[gatorcane]

The GFDL does not show any ridge bending it back WNW in the Bahamas, so that is a good sign. But the hurricane models look like they are trying to ramp up things too quickly...this system is going to take more time to get going it looks like.

[SunnyThoughts]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011073118&prod=z85&tau=120&set=Tropical

120 shoots the straits....weak....

Heh, shows some sort of home brew making up around the big bend of Florida..and riding the panhandle coast into Pensacola, then finishes 91L off by coming into Pensacola too. A double whammy a little over a week before my daughters wedding on the beach? uh...NO THANKS.

[fox13weather]

18z HWRF...imo this model is just as bad as the Nogaps and the Nam...the right bias here is laughable

never diss a model solution until it is proven wrong...

[hurricanefloyd5]

all the models look to be in a close agreement that bahama's will be hit and headed towards florida!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

The GFDL does not show any ridge bending it back WNW in the Bahamas, so that is a good sign. But the hurricane models look like they are trying to ramp up things too quickly...this system is going to take more time to get going it looks like.

As you said earlier though, that ridging starts about 130 hours out. GFDL only runs to 126. We don't know what would happen if the run went on further.

[gatorcane]

all the models look to be in a close agreement that bahama's will be hit and headed towards florida!!!!!!!!!!!!

No model brings anything strong into Florida right now.....

[Evil Jeremy]

all the models look to be in a close agreement that bahama's will be hit and headed towards florida!!!!!!!!!!!!

No model brings anything strong into Florida right now.....

Second. Only one model has actually hit Florida so far, and that was a couple days ago. And it was the NOGAPS, so yea. FL isn't completely safe yet, especially with the model trends, but no need to cry wolf.

[ronjon]

18z NOGAPS first model run to show eastern GOM system.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2011073118&set=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

18z HWRF...imo this model is just as bad as the Nogaps and the Nam...the right bias here is laughable

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 8_wind.png

never diss a model solution until it is proven wrong...

It could happen but statistically the HWRF model has an extreme right bias.

[Ivanhater]

all the models look to be in a close agreement that bahama's will be hit and headed towards florida!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stop posting false information. There is no agreement that this is headed toward Florida..yet anyways. Consider this a warning.

[Vortex]

FWIW, 18Z Nogaps into the Gulf with landfall near Pensacola...More importantly the trend...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[plasticup]

Less development means more time tracking west before the system starts deepening and getting drawn into the trough. When the models start delaying the timeline they are all going to shift west. The lack of organization today means that this one is a greater US threat than before.

Although, of course, the Leeward Islands are grateful.

[KWT]

The GFDL does not show any ridge bending it back WNW in the Bahamas, so that is a good sign. But the hurricane models look like they are trying to ramp up things too quickly...this system is going to take more time to get going it looks like.

Yeah, though the GFDL probably isn't a bad run in terms of strength, remember that image above is obviously for 900mbs winds, surface winds will be lower then that, so its not actually too bad unlike the HWRF.

I actually think the GFDL isn't a bad middle ground of where most of the models are at, I'd bet the NHC track at this tage would be fairly close to that run.

[Ptarmigan]

The longer Invest 91L takes to organize, the more likely it will go further west than a storm that forms right now and has a chance entering the Gulf of Mexico. The reason is a hurricane is more influenced by upper air patterns than a tropical wave like 91L.

Explanation why hurricanes are more influenced by upper air patterns.
http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/geol204 ... weath2.htm

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